Two important events held in China during the first week of September 2025 sent significant messages about the global balance of power. The first was the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Summit held in Tianjin, China, and the second was the Victory Day Parade held at Tiananmen Square in Beijing.
The most notable aspect of the SCO Summit was the participation of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping during the breaks between sessions. Modi’s participation in this summit provided important clues that India would strengthen its ties with China and Russia. Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un were among the foreign leaders who attended the Victory Day Parade at Tiananmen Square, a move described as the “Axis of Revolution,” particularly in Western media.[i]
The meeting between the leaders of Russia and North Korea in China and the bilateral and multilateral diplomacy conducted there has mostly been interpreted by Western analysts as the “building of an alliance” between the three countries. Based on this idea, comparisons have been made among the total military capacity of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) members and the total military capacity of China, Russia, and North Korea.[ii] In his speech at the military parade, Xi Jinping said that the world is facing a choice between “war and peace” and emphasized that his country has always been on the side of “peace”.[iii] Despite these statements, Western media outlets interpreted the messages conveyed at China’s Military Parade as “signs of a process leading to World War III” and claimed that an “alliance” had been formed among China, Russia, and North Korea.[iv]
Concerns stemming particularly from Russia and North Korea are causing the West to take a tougher stance toward China. Indeed, China’s ongoing cooperation with Russia and its dialogue with North Korea are increasing these concerns in the West. However, it should not be forgotten that China may have its own reservations about its approach to these countries. First and foremost, Russia’s continued war in Ukraine has continued to have significant effects on China’s domestic and foreign policy since 2022. It has led to significant changes in China’s connections with the world, from energy to security policies, military cooperation to industrial investments, and relations with the West. First, Western sanctions pressure in the energy and trade sectors has put significant pressure on China’s foreign investments and bilateral trade, particularly its banking activities in Russia. Despite these challenges, bilateral trade volume has managed to grow by 67% over the past 3 years under Western sanctions pressure, reaching 244 billion dollars.[v] In the political arena, China has called on Russia to end the war in Ukraine, published its own peace plan, attempted to mediate, and conducted shuttle diplomacy. Russia’s war in Ukraine has caused significant disruptions in China’s transport corridors to the West, increasing the importance of alternative corridors.
The war in Ukraine has led to greater pressure on China in the international arena, major challenges in its foreign policy, and certain limitations, particularly in its relations with Europe. More importantly, Russia’s actions have also caused delays in China’s implementation of its own global vision. Russia is pursuing a more proactive and forceful strategy, which is deepening polarization with the West. This tension greatly hinders or delays China’s global ambitions. In this context, while Russia tends to view and use platforms such as the SCO and BRICS as important tools in its struggle against the West, China opposes an open polarization with the West on the global stage.
A similar situation can be seen in China’s view of North Korea. Pyongyang’s increasing number of missile tests and military exercises are causing more and more Western actors to turn to the Asia-Pacific region and increasing NATO’s footprint in Asia. In other words, North Korea’s activities are leading to a deterioration in the security environment in China’s immediate neighborhood, which is an undesirable situation for China. Aware of the current and potential destructive effects of Russia and North Korea’s actions, China has intensified its diplomatic contacts with these actors in recent years to reduce tensions. In this context, Xi’s close dialogue with both Putin and Kim is seen as an important step that will advance China’s national interests.
China’s efforts to advance its relations with Russia and North Korea can be considered a strategic move with pragmatic outcomes for Beijing. Thus, Beijing gains allies with significant military power while simultaneously sending a strong deterrent message to Western powers increasing their presence in Asia. While projecting an image of a “strong China” at the Military Parade, it is also sending a strong message to the West through its partnerships with Russia and North Korea. Based on this, it can be argued that China has reached a position where it can rapidly change the balances in the international system. Indeed, if it so desires, Beijing could create a new axis against the West by forming a military-based alliance with Moscow and Pyongyang. However, China favors a multipolar world. The West, on the other hand, is striving to remain the sole hegemon in the world. Therefore, the concerns of the West and the US regarding China are closely related to their fear of losing their leading positions in the global system.
[i] “Could NATO stand up to President Xi’s ‘Axis of Upheaval’? As China pushes for a new world order, how the alliance’s military forces compare to combined might of Beijing, Russia and North Korea”, Dailymail, https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15059943/NATO-President-Xi-Axis-Upheaval-China-new-world-order-Beijing-Russia-North-Korea.html, (Date of Access: 09.09.2025).
[ii] Ibid.
[iii] “Çin Devlet Başkanı Şi: Dünya barış ya da savaş arasında bir seçimle karşı karşıya”, Forbes, https://www.forbes.com.tr/makale/cin-devlet-baskani-si-dunya-baris-ya-da-savas-arasinda-bir-secimle-karsi-karsiya, (Date of Access: 09.09.2025).
[iv] “Xi, Putin, Kim and the optics of a new world order”, The Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/news/ng-interactive/2025/sep/06/xi-jinping-vladimir-putin-kim-jong-un-optics-new-world-order, (Date of Access: 09.09.2025).
[v] “Son Üç Yılda Rusya ile Çin Arasındaki Ticaret Hacmi %67 Arttı”, İhracat, https://ihracat.com.tr/son-uc-yilda-rusya-ile-cin-arasindaki-ticaret-hacmi-artti/, (Date of Access: 09.09.2025).
