China’s foreign policy has been a continuity but in parallel with the change of leaders, several new evolutions have been raised. Given the role of the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party Secretariat in determining foreign policy of the country, these processes should be seen as natural. Therefore, the interpretation of China’s foreign policy toward Afghanistan within the framework of Chinese leaders’ approaches seems beneficial in understanding the Beijing leadership approach.
From 1949, when the People’s Republic of China was founded, until Afghanistan officially recognized China in 1955, there was no significant interaction between the two countries. Afghanistan’s impartiality-based foreign policy and China’s internal approach to economic transformation and development have also led to limited relations between the parties.
First years of the Mao Zedung era between 1945-1976, there is no intimacy between China and Afghanistan relations because of the China’s inclusion in the Socialist bloc led by the Soviet Union, and in the period in question, Afghanistan’s policy of impartiality to not support one of the parties in the struggle between the great powers. Although China and Soviet Union have had some problems, Beijing administration has not tried to gain influence over Afghanistan, which is close to Moscow.
After Mao, Deng Siaoping led the country through 1989. While Deng’s time in power had the potential for the Cold War to turn into a world war by Chinese authorities, the idea that two superpowers would not dare to fight such a battle, and Beijing must follow an independent policy and develop relations with the world, especially with the great powers. In this respect, diplomatic relations between the United States (US) and China were established in 1979.
On the other hand, normalization of the China and Soviet Union relations in 1989, form a basis for strategic co-operation between Beijing and Moscow after the Cold War. In fact, Jiang Zemin, who led China in 1989-2002, went to foreign policy change after the Cold War ended. In this process, a new security perspective based on mutual benefit, trust and co-operation has been adopted by abandoning the traditional sense of security based on military alliances and arming.
It is stated that the Chinese authorities should respect the diversity of the world and live together in peace during the period of that era. Jiang has also included improving China’s international image as a political priority. It has been seen that China has been trying to improve its relations with several countries and to assess the opportunities of economic globalization, especially those that are trying to make a mutually beneficial agreement based on the economy.
The Beijing administration, which chose to watch behind the progress of the Soviet Union’s military intervention in Afghanistan, has been seeking to develop good relations with the Soviet Union after the withdrawal of the Soviet Union from Afghanistan. However, the lack of stability in the country by governments established in Afghanistan and the Taliban taking over the government has led to a change in China’s regional threat detection.
The Beijing administration was concerned that the Eastern Turkistan Islamic movement, which says Xinjiang-Uyghur Sovereign Region is fighting for its independence, might find ground in its neighbor Afghanistan. Therefore, China has developed its relationship with Afghanistan, which is trying to prevent this danger by establishing good relations with the Taliban and supporting a stable structure in Afghanistan.
Interested in whether Afghanistan is stable, rather than who it is governed by, and whether it will harm its interests in both itself and the region, Beijing has also helped to continue relations with the new administration after the Taliban was dropped from power.
Hu Jintao, who was the President of China between 2002-2012 propounded ‘harmonic world’ vision. Hu’s ideas are essentially an extension of Jiang’s foreign policy. Advocating Chinese development and co-operation with African and Asian countries in the form of rhetoric, this view has served to quickly spread Beijing’s influence.
China, which has established positive relations with the government established in Afghanistan since 2002 and has signed agreements on Economic and Technical Co-operation, and has become one of Afghanistan’s important import centers. According to data released by the World Integrated Trade Solution (WITS) in 2019, China is ranked second in the list of countries where Afghanistan imports the most. The rates are; Iran (14.56%), China (13.92%), Pakistan (12.87%), USA (9.15%), Turkmenistan (8.06%).[1]
It can be said that Afghanistan cannot take advantage of its underground resources. Because the removal, processing, and transportation of mines to international markets requires serious investment costs. Afghanistan, which has experienced both financial and technical shortcomings, has been experiencing difficult periods economically, has also failed to attract direct foreign investors.
Afghanistan’s geostrategic location, as well as its mining resources, makes this country one of the most important neighbors in China. It is possible to say that after Xi Jinping became Chinese President in 2012, there was a concrete change in the foreign policy of the Beijing administration. China, which grew up very quickly in the early 21st century, became the world’s second largest economy, has begun to conduct a more proactive foreign policy in the Xi era than in the past. In this period, China, has increased its military capacity and developed national defense technologies, has tried to ensure agriculture and food safety, and become more financially independent.
In this context, Beijing has signed a co-operation agreement with several countries and international organizations, setting up the Belt-Road Project. China has often been stripped of its external passive image and has been moved to implement more proactive policies as a large government with significant power and capability around the World.
The relationship between Beijing and Kabul has intensified, especially after 2014, when the US intends to withdraw its military forces from Afghanistan, as Afghanistan is a key location for the Belt-Road Project, has underground resources and has potential threats to China’s regional security.
China, which has good relations with Pakistan, emphasizes stability in the region because it does not want to have to choose between the two countries. It is possible to say that the negative attitude towards the Taliban, which dominates the world’s public, was not shared by China when the Taliban came back to power.
The Taliban’s commitment is that no neighboring countries from Afghanistan will be attacked, and organizations that neighboring countries perceive as enemies will not be allowed to operate on Afghanistan’s soil and is seen as the most concrete step taken by the Taliban in international recognition. In response, the continued operation of the Chinese Embassy in Kabul after the Taliban took over, at least keeping the necessary channels open for dialog to be established can be considered a reflection of a search for mutual benefit-based co-operation.
New agreements between the Taliban and China are possible to explore, remove, process and transport mines and underground resources in Afghanistan. According to the World Bank’s report in 2020, which assessed countries for ease of business, it is clear that Beijing is interested in this country, although Afghanistan is ranked in 173rd[2] among the 190 countries examined. As it may be remembered, despite all the difficulties, in 2007, China agreed with the Government of Afghanistan to run the largest copper mine in Afghanistan for 30 years and invested approximately 3 billion dollars. This is the most important foreign investment in Afghanistan’s history. But the Chinese Metallurgy Group Company and Jiangxi Copper Company had to stop their work shortly after they started mining activities, due to the discovery of an ancient Buddhist city at the mine site (Mes Aynak). In short, Afghanistan’s historical and cultural wealth has prevented the removal of underground riches.
China’s interest in mines in Afghanistan is not limited to copper alone. It is claimed that the Chinese National oil Company has been seeking re-research in the Amu Derya field in 1970, where the Soviet Union sought oil and natural gas, and has been continuing talks with the Taliban about the removal of various mines, particularly lithium. So, during the Xi period, Beijing is very interested in the mines of Afghanistan.
China, which currently holds about half of its global lithium production and has a two-thirds share in battery production, can increase its position in the international energy markets, especially in terms of the battery. This leads to Beijing having various contacts with the Taliban.
In summary, like China’s investments in Africa and Latin America, it can also be said that it gives attractive offers on investment in Afghanistan. For example, 20% of the 150-million-dollar investment in the Amu Derya Petroleum area will be covered by Afghanistan, and it is expected to be introduced to the domestic market after refining the raw oil released in this country. More will be exported. Given the economic difficulties facing Afghanistan, whose financial assets in the United States were first frozen and then seized, China could increase its influence over Afghanistan through various aid.
It is possible that China could turn the anti-American opposition in Afghanistan into its own advantage, which is an important country in terms of geostrategy, into a position that does not harm or even contribute to the Belt-Road Project. In fact, it is also the result of Chinese Ambassador to Kabul Wang Yu’s frequent emphasis on the difference in US and China’s policies toward Afghanistan.
At this point, it is important to note that China has called for the establishment of a “inclusive” administration in Afghanistan but does not clearly support any of the parties or oppose one of the actors. Moreover, China also joined the foreign ministers of neighboring countries in Afghanistan in March 2022 to provide conference diplomacy to establish regional stability and security. Therefore, China has played a constructive role in the security, stability and economic development of both Afghanistan and the region.
As a result, the Beijing administration is implementing a very pragmatic policy on Afghanistan. The main issue of this policy is often an economic issue such as Afghanistan’s role in the Belt-Road Project, investments in the mining sector, air lobbies, transit, dry fruit exports, continuation of the Mes Aynak project that was unfinished and investments in other underground resources. The Taliban administration, which is economically difficult, needs Beijing. The fact that aid is extremely effective as a political tool suggests that Chinese influence in Afghanistan will increase even further.
[1] “World Integrated Trade Solution, Afghanistan Trade Balance, Exports and Imports by Country 2019”, The World Bank, https://wits.worldbank.org/CountryProfile/en/Country/AFG/Year/2019/TradeFlow/EXPIMP/Partner/by-country, (Date of Accession: 21.08.2022).
[2] The World Bank Doing Bussines Archive, https://archive.doingbusiness.org/en/data/exploreeconomies/afghanistan, (Date of Accession: 21.08.2022).
