The decline in rainfall across large parts of Asia is bringing water shortages in agricultural fields into the global food market agenda. Current multi-model forecasts indicate an almost 100 percent probability that El Niño will persist until February 2027, while predicting that the event will reach a very strong level by the end of the year.[i] Although this expectation does not point to famine by itself, simultaneous pressure on production centers increases the risk regarding the prices and availability of several products, ranging from rice to vegetable oils.
El Niño is a natural climate oscillation that changes precipitation and temperature patterns thousands of kilometers away as a result of unusually warm surface waters in the equatorial Pacific. Human-caused warming, meanwhile, is making the environment in which this event develops warmer, increasing the potential damage caused by droughts and extreme heat. Nevertheless, effects do not emerge in the same way in every country. The Indian Ocean, local monsoon patterns, irrigation capacity, and crop calendars can cause the same climate signal to produce drought in one place and floods in another.
The reason why developments in Asia have global repercussions is the region’s significant place in the global food trade. While India, Vietnam and Thailand rank among the first top three exporters globally, Indonesia and Malaysia account for approximately %85 of the world’s palm oil supply.[ii] Production losses experienced in those countries during the same season might not merely remain a problem for local markets. African and Middle Eastern countries which import palm oil, and the global food industry that uses it might feel the impacts of rainfall levels in Asia on their own costs.
Indonesia is already demonstrating how this chain can be established. While the rainy season is expected to be delayed across approximately 61% of the country’s territory, producer representatives estimate that around 30% of rice paddies lack irrigation infrastructure and warn of a potential decline of up to 10% in 2027 rice production.[iii] Current losses in cocoa and sugarcane also demonstrate that the impact of the drought is not limited to a single harvest. The crop which cannot be planted today might turn into food that is not able to reach the market and declining farmer incomes a few months later.
Alongside agricultural land, water stress also affects fisheries. Low water flows in the Mekong Basin can narrow spawning grounds of fishes, weakening the main sources of protein and income for coastal communities. Dams on the rivers, mining activities, and rising water demand are making an already fragile system even more vulnerable. Therefore, rather than creating a new problem, El Niño is making long-standing environmental and administrative pressures more visible. The gap caused by the decline of fish stocks is often tried to be filled with more expensive animal products. The transmission of the effects of drought to prices does not follow a linear path. When production forecasts deteriorate; traders may demand higher risk premiums, governments may restrict exports to protect domestic markets, and importers may turn to buying at the same time in an effort to secure stocks.
Such a chain of events can drive up prices before the actual crop loss has been measured. While countries with ample reserves, strong currencies, and alternative suppliers can soften the shock for some time, budget-constrained importers quickly pass the price increases on to the costs of bread, rice, and cooking oil.
For Asian societies, the pressure on rice prices carries political significance just as much as economic importance. When the price of this product -which is central to the daily diet of millions of households- rises, wage gains become quickly eroded, social welfare budgets widen, and dissatisfaction in cities increase. Meanwhile, a decline in palm oil supplies can drive up costs for a wide range of products, from biscuits to soap. Thus, the impact of drought is not limited to grain sold at market stalls; they can also extend to processed goods regularly used by households and to transportation costs.
Climate shocks do not affect all segments of society equally. Large enterprises with access to irrigation wells, credit, and insurance can alter their planting schedules or carry their losses over to the next season while small farmers who rely on the rain must cover the costs of seeds, fertilizer, and debt from that same harvest. Families in urban cities who spend a large amount of their income on food may also feel the impact of even a slight price increase directly through a reduction in the number of meals they consume. Therefore; food security is not only about the total amount of a product available in storages, but also about people’s purchasing power to afford it.
Current projections indicate that El Niño can push an additional 8.2 million people into acute food insecurity by the end of 2027 in the Asia-Pacific region, with the global increase potentially reaching at least 49 million.[iv]Rather than representing a definite outcome, these figures illustrate the potential scale of the impact if existing vulnerabilities were to be combined with climate-related pressures. Factors such as poverty, conflict, high debt, and costly energy can turn the same lack of rainfall from a manageable production issue into a humanitarian crisis in certain countries.
The most effective approach to this is to act on early estimates rather than seeking assistance only after the harvest loss has been confirmed. Updating planting schedules, distributing short-cycle seeds, repairing small-scale irrigation systems, and providing farmers with cash in advance can reduce production losses. Governments can also limit market rumors and unnecessary buying by transparently sharing information about public stockpiles. Early warning won’t bring the rain back to the fields; however, it can prevent farmers from planting at the wrong time and losing their family’s entire savings in a single season.
Regional cooperation is just as important as domestic policy. If rice exporters impose restrictions without consulting one another, this could accelerate global panic rather than protecting the supply. When Southeast Asian countries regularly share production forecasts, reserve data, and river flow information; they can foresee the importers’ needs earlier. However, treating water management in the Mekong and agricultural trade as separate issues leads to the fragmentation of shared risks. Analyzing decisions regarding water, harvests, and exports together can create a more predictable market.Since El Niño has not yet reached its anticipated peak, the course of the coming months does not allow for definitive predictions.
Nevertheless, Asia’s significant share in global production turns any rainfall deficit in the region into a global food security issue. The extent to which this drought is felt at the global dinner table will be determined not only by ocean temperatures but also by investments in irrigation, social protection capacity, transparent inventory management, and trade policies. If governments use the time gained to prepare, this climate issue can remain a manageable pressure; however, if they delay, the cracks in the fields could translate into soaring prices, debt, and deeper hunger.
[i] “El Niño set to become very strong, raising risks of extreme weather into 2027”, World Meteorological Organization, https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/el-nino-set-become-very-strong-raising-risks-of-extreme-weather-2027, (Date Accessed: 28 Eylül 2026).
[ii] “Worsening El Nino threatens Asia with drought, potentially raising food prices globally”, Associated Press, https://apnews.com/article/31c88df9ce8f67bcbfe3ea7f39431d57, (Date Accessed: 28 Eylül 2026).
[iii] “Indonesia forecasts delayed wet season, farmers brace for impact”, Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/indonesia-forecasts-wet-season-will-start-early-november-later-than-expected-2026-09-22/ (Date Accessed: 28 Eylül 2026).
[iv] “World Food Programme ramps up preparedness and response plans as El Niño threatens to push tens of millions into acute hunger”, World Food Programme, https://www.wfp.org/news/world-food-programme-ramps-preparedness-and-response-plans-el-nino-threatens-push-tens, (Date Accessed: 28 Eylül 2026).
