The Georgian government’s decision to postpone accession negotiations with the European Union (EU) until 2028 is not only a change of timetable, but also a turning point in the country’s reshaping of its political, economic, and geopolitical orientation. This decision is a reflection of Georgia’s efforts to ensure its domestic political stability and continue its search for balance in foreign policy. However, it has deeply affected both the expectations of the Georgian people and the EU’s enlargement policies. While domestic political dynamics, Russia’s influence in the region, and the EU’s demands for reform were the most important elements of this process, the decision also had serious consequences for international relations.
The decision in Georgia was driven by increasing political tensions and difficulties in reform processes, especially in recent years. Criticism of Georgia on the rule of law, human rights, and freedom of the press, which are among the core values of the EU, played a decisive role in this decision. For example, regulations such as the “Foreign Agent Law” were perceived in the West as a trend towards authoritarianism.EU officials stated that such policies undermined the democratization process and contradicted Georgia’s EU membership aspirations.[1] On the other hand, the Georgian government interpreted these criticisms as Western interference in the country’s internal affairs and defended them as national security measures.[2]
Another important reason for Georgia’s decision is its delicate relations with Russia. The 2008 Russo-Georgian War permanently increased tensions between the two countries. Russia’s military presence in Abkhazia and South Ossetia and its recognition of these regions as independent states continue to threaten Georgia’s territorial integrity. Georgia is aware that deeper integration with the EU could be perceived as a provocation by Moscow. Therefore, delaying the accession process can be seen as a strategic balancing act for Georgia. If Georgia moves closer to the West, there is a risk that Russia may increase its economic sanctions or intensify its military interventions.[3]
Inconsistencies in the EU’s enlargement policies were another factor that influenced Georgia’s decision. In 2022, Tbilisi was disappointed that Ukraine and Moldova were granted candidate status, while Georgia was only granted “potential candidate” status. Georgia believes that the EU should provide more support, arguing that it has taken important steps, especially in terms of democratization and rule of law reforms. However, the EU appears to link progress in the accession process not only to the implementation of reforms but also to broader geopolitical factors such as regional security and stability.
The implications of this decision for Georgia are not limited to foreign policy. The majority of Georgians see EU membership as a goal for the country’s future. Polls show that more than 80% of the population supports EU membership.[4] The postponement of negotiations has therefore led to increased domestic political criticism of the Georgian Government. The opposition in particular uses this as evidence that the government is moving away from its European goals. At the societal level, the postponement of hopes for EU integration could undermine confidence in reforms and risk a setback in Georgia’s democratization process.
At the international level, Georgia’s decision has led to uncertainty in its relations with the West. While the EU continues to support Georgia’s democratization efforts, the postponement of negotiations has created a perception that questions Tbilisi’s commitment to the West. This could lead to new difficulties in Georgia’s economic and diplomatic cooperation. On the other hand, Russia is likely to use this situation to increase its influence over Georgia. Moscow will be pleased to see the EU’s influence in the region waning and will try to draw Georgia further into its sphere of influence.
How Georgia utilizes the period until 2028 is of critical importance for the country’s future. Accelerating reforms and revitalizing relations with the EU should be one of Tbilisi’s top priorities. This scenario could strengthen Georgia’s economic development and international reputation. However, it is also possible that Georgia could develop closer ties with Russia if the process of integration with the West weakens. Such a scenario could jeopardize the country’s independence aspirations and threaten regional security.
Alternatively, Georgia could pursue a more balanced policy vis-à-vis both the West and Russia by focusing on regional cooperation. This approach would allow Georgia to protect its economic and political interests while not completely excluding the EU accession process.
In conclusion, Georgia’s decision to postpone EU accession negotiations has had a profound impact on the country’s domestic dynamics, external relations, and regional balances. Georgia’s continued commitment to reforms and strengthening its relations with the West could lead to a more stable path in the long run. Likewise, a more coherent and inclusive EU enlargement policy would be an important step to support the integration process of countries like Georgia.
[1] “Georgia’s European Integration Progress Report”, European Commission, https://neighbourhood-enlargement.ec.europa.eu/document/download/7b6ed47c-ecde-41a2-99ea-41683dc2d1bd_en?filename=Georgia%20Report%202024.pdf, (Accessed: 30.11.2024).
[2] “EU Decision to Suspend Membership Negotiations with Georgia”, Independent, https://t.ly/Uz9ur, (Accessed: 30.11.2024).
[3] “In response to Brussels, Georgia says it will not join EU accession talks until 2028”, Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/georgia-says-it-will-not-enter-eu-membership-talks-until-2028-snub-brussels-2024-11-28/, Accessed: 29.11.2024).
[4] Ibid.
