It is wondered whether China’s views on the Ukraine War have changed after President of Russia Vladimir Putin’s last insistence on continuing the war in Ukraine, and especially after resorting to the nuclear threat. According to the general opinion in the West, the Russian-Chinese friendship has reached its limits and has begun to decline. For example, on October 3, 2022, Former United States (US) Secretary of State Henry Kissinger said that Chinese President Xi Jinping thought it was wrong to support Russia in the Ukraine War, and therefore he may have changed his view on the war.[1] According to Kissinger; before the starting of the Ukraine War, President of China Xi Jinping gave a “blank check” to his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin. The reason for this support is that Jinping believes that Russia will achieve a quick victory in Ukraine.
It is highly likely that Putin won Jinping’s support by convincing his Chinese counterpart that this war would end quickly and painlessly. Because before the war, Russia’s senior staff seemed to have convinced and encouraged Putin that the operation plan would be extremely successful. So, before the war, Putin had full confidence that he would win.
It seems that; when Putin went to Beijing within the framework of the Winter Olympics in February 2022, he succeeded in instilling this assurance in the Chinese authorities. On the other hand, China may have thought that it would profit from Russia’s attack on Ukraine and that this attack would be useful to undermine the hegemony of the West and to teach it a lesson. Indeed, Beijing may have wanted to side with Moscow in order to combat the perception that the West rules the world and it is the sole hegemon of the international order, and to overthrow this notion. However, it can be said that Russia’s failure in the war and the economic burdens brought by the Western sanctions were effective in changing China’s mind.
Considering that foreign policy and economy are closely linked together, it can be concluded that China is facing increasing domestic problems, especially aging population, high financial debts and real estate crisis, which affects foreign policy. Therefore, in the bilateral meetings held during the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Summit, the leaders of China and Russia agreed to expand cooperation in areas such as trade and agriculture but there was no mention of military cooperation.[2] In this context, it can be said that Russia and China’s partnerships are not permanent, they cannot establish strategic partnerships and they have a temporary cooperation. Because, as seen in the Ukrainian War, the two states have not developed an absolute cooperation in foreign policy. So that; after Russia’s announcement of military mobilization, China called for negotiations and a ceasefire in Ukraine. Making a statement on the subject, Wang Wenbin, spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China said that, “we call for a ceasefire through negotiations in a way that responds to the security concerns of all parties.”[3]
It can be said that Putin’s declaration of mobilization disappointed Beijing. Because one of the actors that suffered the most from this war is China. The main reason for this discomfort is that while Russia is dealing with the war in Ukraine; it will not be able to come to your aid. There is such a risk for Beijing. In other words, while Russia continues its war in Ukraine; China cannot take a comfortable decision regarding Taiwan. Because it cannot count on Moscow’s support. Once the war in Ukraine is over, China can muster up the courage for an operation to unite with Taiwan. In short, China wants this war to end more for its own interests.
Moreover, Putin’s ambitious policies are no longer reasonable or acceptable to China. The clearest indication of this was experienced at the SCO Summit in Uzbekistan. During the summit, in front of the cameras, Jinping smiled nervously while shaking hands with Putin, and then seriously moved away from the Russian leader.[4] After this attitude, Putin had to make a statement and said “I understand China’s concerns.” As a matter of fact, at this summit, Jinping gave the message that they could work together with Russia to ensure stability in the world. Despite this, it can be argued that Putin’s pro-war stance disturbs China.
Another reason why Beijing has reduced its support for Moscow in the Ukraine War is that China’s military-defense security will be put at risk. Normally, China is militarily dependent on Russia. However, the losses experienced by the Russian Army in the Ukraine War and the problems in the supply and supply of military products have made Moscow in need of Beijing. Russia now buys back from China the improved or modernized version of the military products it previously sold. As a matter of fact, according to the claim made by Washington in the first months of the war, Russia requested military aid from China as its military ammunition was gradually depleted.[5] Although both Moscow and Beijing have denied this, there is a possibility that the allegations are true. But this help is not the first. Normally, China already ships the products in question to Russia. The difference here is that arms sales qualify as “military aid”.
Military products were currently sold by China to Russia are listed as unmanned aerial vehicles components, off-road vehicles, radiation resistant electronic components and chip supply. In the current situation, Russia also demands surface-to-air missiles, UAVs, intelligence-related equipment and armored and logistics vehicles from China due to its losses in the Ukraine War. Therefore, prolongation of the war may also reveal China’s own defense weakness. At a time when China is making plans for Taiwan, Beijing will want to be strong militarily and will even want to see Russia’s support behind it.
As a result, Beijing is revising its view on the Russia-Ukraine War in line with its national interests. It is possible to interpret this as an effort to recalibrate China’s relations with Russia. Because it would not be right to say that there has been a clear break in the Russian-Chinese relations due to the Ukraine issue.
[1] “Xi Jinping May ‘Recalibrate’ After Miscalculation of Siding with Russia, Henry Kissinger Says”, SCMP, https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/3194737/xi-jinping-may-recalibrate-after-miscalculation-siding-russia-henry, (Date of Accession: 05.10.2022).
[2] “Xi And Putin Vow Mutual Support, But Military Backing Unlikely, Analysts Say”, SCMP, https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3192805/xi-and-putin-vow-mutual-support-military-backing-unlikely, (Date of Accession: 05.10.2022).
[3] “China Calls for Negotiations, Cease-Fire in Ukraine After Russia’s Military Mobilization Announcement”, AA, https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/china-calls-for-negotiations-cease-fire-in-ukraine-after-russias-military-mobilization-announcement/2690808, (Date of Accession: 05.10.2022).
[4] “Is China About to Turn on Russia?”, Unherd, https://unherd.com/2022/10/is-china-about-to-turn-on-russia/,(Date of Accession: 04.10.2022).
[5] “China Reverses Roles in Arms Trade with Russia”, FT, https://www.ft.com/content/dc4bc03c-3d9d-43bd-91db-1ede084e0798, (Date of Accession: 05.10.2022).
