European powers have been increasing their military-economic-political presence in the Asia-Pacific region for the last five years. Consequently, the world’s security-geopolitical focus is gradually shifting to this region. UK, which published the “Global Britain” vision document in 2021 and updates this document periodically, is strengthening its ties with Southeast Asian countries both economically and militarily.
It is wondered what the government’s new Asia-Pacific policies will be after the Labor Party’s victory in England on July 4, 2024. Prime Minister Keir Starmer promises to rebuild UK and restore credibility in internal politics. Similarly, in foreign policy, it is trying to establish new connections with its allies, correct the mistakes of the previous administration, and chart a stronger and more determined course, especially in the Asia-Pacific. Because it is assumed that the Labor Party will not want to follow a program initiated by the previous Conservative government. Therefore, a new calibration in regional policies seems inevitable.
It is important to emphasize that the UK’s national-global interests are taken into account here, rather than the decisions of periodically changing governments. In other words, the new Starmer Government is expected to pursue the goals and interests of Global Britian. In this regard, any withdrawal from or any show of weakness in the region would negatively impact the security of the Asia-Pacific, lead to a power vacuum, and this would harm British interests. It is therefore predicted that Labor will maintain and reform certain aspects of the UK’s foreign policy in the Asia-Pacific. The main challenge they will face at this point will be the economic difficulties within the country. In other words, the Labor Party may not have sufficient economic power to expand into the Asia-Pacific.[i]
It is of great importance that the Labor Party protects and maintains the UK’s core security interests in the region. It is expected that existing security policies will be strengthened and continued to keep strategic maritime areas or flashpoints like the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait free and open. In this context, the expansion and increased efficiency of Five Eyes, AUKUS and other military partnerships may be on the agenda. It is noted that UK and US agreed to expand defense agreements in the Asia-Pacific byl the end of 2024.[ii] First of all, it is anticipated that Japan and Canada will join the second pillar of AUKUS.
The expansion of military exercises between South Korea and Japan with the US may be an effective factor for the UK to take similar steps with its own allies. The Royal Navy’s participation in the first joint exercise in the Indo-Pacific with Australia and Japan on July 4, 2024 may be the first indication of this.[iii]
On the other hand, the Labor Government will likely continue to encourage private sector engagement with Taiwan, as did the Conservative Government before it. Indeed, many British delegations have visited the island over the past two years. The Labor Party’s increased interaction with Taiwan could influence European powers to follow similar steps. The UK may also seek to expand its reach in the Asia-Pacific by strengthening its military-political ties with actors such as Indonesia, Malaysia and India, which seek to maintain a neutral stance in the region.
When creating a new Asia-Pacific policy, the Labor Party may prioritize reviewing economic cooperation and free trade agreements. Indeed, the “Global Britain Report” emphasizes the importance of the Asia-Pacific region in the world economy and states that UK aims to become the region’s largest commercial partner by 2030. Therefore, the Labor Party may be active in exploring trade agreements and investment opportunities to increase economic cooperation with the regional countries in the new period. In particular, issues such as sustainable development and compliance with environmental standards may be at the forefront of trade negotiations.
As it is known, human rights and democratic values hold an important place in the UK’s foreign policy. Therefore, by pursuing a policy that supports democratic processes and human rights in the Asia-Pacific region, Labor may polarize with countries that oppose it. In this process, if Donald Trump returns to power in the US at the end of the year may also significantly change the UK’s regional policies.
While the Labor Party Government is expected to act in harmony with the USA in the Asia-Pacific region under normal circumstances, at the same time, these relations may become competitive if Trump returns to power. Indeed, the UK and the US are countries that have had a long-standing strategic partnership. This partnership is also valid in Asia-Pacific. However, while the economic interests of the two countries may overlap in some areas, they could be competitive in others. For instance, the interests of both countries may overlap or diverge on issues such as trade agreements, investment opportunities and technology transfers. Additionally, considering the US’s security policies in the region (especially its strategy to contain China) and the UK’s own strategic interests (with a more economic-mercantalist approach), competitive dynamics may emerge in some cases. Particulary, the rise of China and its constructive interaction with regional countries could lead to disagreement and therefore competition between the US and the UK.
As a result, regional countries have been trying to advance or protect their interests by avoiding the US-China competition for a long time. Therefore, these actors have developed reflexes against coercive policies, such as being forced to “take sides”. Based on this awareness, it can be said that UK’s new Asia-Pacific strategy will include a more mercantalist approach, continuing expansions in the security realm, and potentially observing political competition with the US.
[i] “A New Era Dawns: Labour’s Indo-Pacıfıc Offer”, 9dashline, https://www.9dashline.com/article/a-new-era-dawns-labours-indo-pacific-offer, (Access Date: 09.07.2024).
[ii] “Britain and US race to expand Pacific defense pact before election turmoil”, Politico, https://www.politico.eu/article/aukus-donald-trump-joe-biden-david-cameron-britain-us-pacific-defense-pact/, (Access Date: 09.07.2024).
[iii] “Royal Navy takes part in first joint exercise with Australia and Japan in Indo-Pacific”, Forces, https://www.forces.net/services/navy/hms-tamar-joins-first-exercise-royal-australian-navy-and-japan-maritime-self-defense, (Access Date: 09.07.2024).
