German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s ruling coalition has agreed to double the country’s military aid to Ukraine to €8billion (£7billion) next year. Through this rise, Germany’s defense budget is expected to exceed 2 percent of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), as committed by all NATO members.1 With this step, it began to be discussed whether there was a serious change in Germany’s views, especially regarding the Russia-Ukraine War.
Which, Germany made serious efforts to prevent Moscow from attacking Ukraine just before Russia’s attack. When the war started, it was the European country that was the most reluctant to provide arms support to Ukraine. Germany was aware of that prolonging war would have devastating effect on the European economy. However, after a certain point, realizing that there was no way to prevent Russia, Germany argued that the United States (USA) and the members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) should bear the burden of this war equally and fairly.
Since the beginning of the war, the Berlin Government has thought that further arming Ukraine would not be a solution. For example, when it came to the agenda of sending Leopard-2 tanks to Kiev, Germany said that the USA should first follow this step and negotiated with Washington on this issue. Ultimately, the USA agreed to send its Abrams tanks to Kiev. The USA fulfilled Germany’s demands regarding aid to Kiev. In return, Germany seems to have agreed to provide more support to Ukraine and to increase its defense budget above 2%, which has been a long-time demand of the USA.
The US and European actors are constantly negotiating about the steps to be taken against Russia and China. None of the Western actors wants to confront Russia or China unnecessarily. According to the USA, the Ukraine issue is more of a European problem. So, they have to figure it out themselves. In this context, the USA wants European members to increase their defense budgets to at least 2% in return for NATO protection.
The war in Ukraine increased Germany’s military need for the United States. Because with this war, the neglect of the weapon-vehicle inventory in the German Army was revealed. Since Germany took on a pacifist structure after the Second World War, the defense industry was neglected for a long time, and Germany was put in a difficult situation when it came to the agenda of sending the neglected tank and other weapons inventory to Ukraine. This need has led to increased dependence on the USA in foreign policy.
Again, in this process, Berlin realized that it was in an impasse in Ukraine and reluctantly provided arms support to Kiev. While German Chancellor Olaf Scholz tried to stay away from this war as much as possible, he called for the world to avoid being divided into Cold War-style “blocks”2
The USA put pressure on Germany in its Pacific and China policies, just like it did in the Ukraine issue. As a matter of fact, as much as the Scholz Government wants the war in Ukraine to end, it is also concerned about the outbreak of a new crisis in Taiwan. For example, Scholz talked about the danger of blocks and repeated his support for multipolarity during his visit to Beijing in November. Thus, Berlin clearly gave the message that it would not follow Washington’s “polarizing” policies in the Pacific. Seeing that the USA has entered into a showdown with Russia and China through NATO and that this has turned into a race of escalation with the Ukraine War, Germany is trying to get out of this vortex into which it has been dragged. In short, Germany’s relations with the USA have cooled down due to differences of opinion regarding the fight against Russia and China.
Germany’s greatest wish is for the Western World to develop a collective mind-strategy in Russian and Chinese politics. That’s why Berlin wants the support to Ukraine to be coordinated among NATO countries. In other words, Germany is looking for ways to distribute the risks rather than shouldering the burden of this war alone. Again, the fight against Russia and China is not a national policy of Germany itself. Due to the conditions in Ukraine, the desire to guarantee the security of Europe, China’s increasing technological presence in countries such as the USA and the UK, and increasing security concerns, the Berlin Government had to turn to a fight against Russia and China. Therefore, Germany is the Western actor that has the coldest attitude towards the fight against Russia and China from the very beginning.
In conclusion, the USA keeps the crises of the world and especially the issues related to Russia and China under its control and tries to use them as a tool of pressure on the allied states. The country where these pressures are most concentrated is Germany. Apparently, as a result of these pressures, Berlin decided to double military aid to Ukraine. In this way, harmony will be achieved within the Western World and Germany will modernize and develop its own defense industry products.
1 “Scholz Coalition Set To Double Germany’s Military Aid To Ukraine To £7bn”, Telegraph, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/11/12/olaf-scholz-double-germany-military-aid-ukraine/, (Access Date: 13.11.2023).
2 “Germany’s Scholz Says World Must Avoid Dividing into Cold War-Style ‘Blocs’”, Arabiya, https://english.alarabiya.net/News/world/2022/12/05/Germany-s-Scholz-says-world-must-avoid-dividing-into-Cold-War-style-blocs-, (Access Date: 13.11.2023).
