The first-ever joint air exercises between India and Japan between January 16-26, 2023 could radically change the balance in the Far East. The exercises called “Veer Guardian 2022”, announced in December 2023,[1] could lead to China feel more contained. Undoubtedly, India and Japan’s recent military moves in the region will draw China’s ire and cause it to become even more aggressive. It should not be forgotten that this escalation race will ultimately lead to a conflict in the region.
In recent months, Beijing has been organizing exercises or engaging in military activities that could be seen as a show of force against both New Delhi and Tokyo. For example, in December 2022, as a result of China’s new military deployments to the Indian border, small-scale clashes occurred between the two countries and soldiers were killed and injured as a result.
Secondly, China started to conduct naval exercises close to Japanese waters following the publication of Japan’s National Security Strategy in December. It has also increased its flights and airspace violations around Taiwan. The fact that China has reacted so strongly, despite the absence of any serious threat from India and Japan, has everyone worried about what Beijing might do after the joint India-Japan exercises in January 2023.
Yet China shows no signs of fear towards either India or Japan. In other words, Beijing is not afraid of confrontation with New Delhi or Tokyo. In this context, China’s actions on the Indian border are bold moves. Likewise, after reaching the Western Pacific Ocean, Chinese warships led by the aircraft carrier “Liaoning” conducted drills near Japanese waters, in which destroyers, as well as numerous fighter jets and helicopters, participated. The Japanese Air Self-Defense Force took to the air to monitor the situation of Chinese warplanes; fortunately, no airspace violations were reported.
The aforementioned steps taken by China by increasing both naval and air exercises aim to show that it is not afraid of Japan. These maneuvers are usually carried out in preparation for a combat possiblity. Moreover, these activities do not indicate a defensive preparation on China’s part, but an offensive intent. The reason why Beijing keeps its navy and air force on constant alert is not to protect its national borders, but rather to achieve its long-term goal of unification with Taiwan.
The strategy of containing China is mainly pursued by the United States of America (USA). Therefore, it would be too ambitious to say that India and Japan are acting together to contain China. However, it can be said that they individually want to compete with China and are trying to increase their military power to this end.
First of all, these two countries are members of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD). Since 2017, this platform has been concretely implemented and turned into a diplomatic summit at the leaders’ level, now including 2+2 meetings with the participation of foreign and defense ministers. The last meeting between India and Japan in the 2+2 format took place in Tokyo on September 8-9, 2022.
During the visit, Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh said, “India and Japan are pursuing a special strategic and global partnership.”[2] In recent years, meetings between the two countries have focused on the development of joint exercises and defense cooperation.[3] The January 2023 joint air exercise will be the realization of this will.
Since the Shinzo Abe era, Japan’s “top priority” has been to develop strategic ties with India. In this regard, the two countries have sought to develop their military partnership in addition to cooperation within the QUAD framework. In fact, it is often mentioned that Japan was the actor that convinced India to join QUAD. This is because New Delhi normally pursues a non-aligned and multilateralist approach and avoids making a new move that would put it face to face with China. Despite this, its participation in QUAD with the USA drew reactions China and Russia. In this context, India is not likely to pursue a strategy that focuses on containing China. However, if the threat on the border increases, India is likely to become more active at sea and increase its support to the USA.
As the USA seeks to strengthen its alliance in the Indo-Pacific, it sees Japan, India, Australia and more recently France as its biggest supporters. If it can attract these actors to its side, it believes that it will succeed in containing China. But this alliance is also in danger. Japan and Australia are intensifying their talks with China, which makes the USA nervous. Therefore, support, especially from India, is of great importance for the USA.
In Japan-USA relations, everything is going well. In its most recent National Defense Strategy Paper, Japan has indirectly signaled its support for Taiwan. The report states that, “Japan will increase its joint intervention capability with the USA”.[4] In other words, Tokyo reiterated its support for Washington. China has resumed military exercises around Taiwan in order to give a tough response to this alliance. Another alliance that worries Beijing is Japan joining forces with India. India-Japan relations are evolving towards a strategic partnership.
These cooperative steps taken by India and Japan are leading to the containment of China. The prospect of the other side joining forces, particularly in the event of a conflict in Taiwan, is the reason for Beijing’s response to this cooperation. Japan is gradually increasing the number of countries with which it has signed a Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA), which allows its navies to dock and resupply in allied ports in the event of war in the region. RAAs have already been signed with the United Kingdom and Australia. It has also signaled in its National Security Strategy Document that it will support the US on the Taiwan issue. In addition, the Philippines plans to sign RAAs with Thailand and France. In early 2022, India and Japan signed the Acquisition and Cross-Servicing Agreement (ACSA) for the mutual provision of defense supplies and services. ACSA da RAA’ya benzerdir. In other words, in the event of a possible war, the procurement of defense industry products between India and Japan will be easier. In short, China’s biggest fear is that India will increase its maritime cooperation with Japan and that this will negatively affect its plans for Taiwan.
[1] “India’s Su-30s To Square Off Against Japan’s Fighters İn First Mutual Exercise”, Aerotime, https://www.aerotime.aero/articles/indias-su-30s-to-square-off-against-japans-fighters-in-first-mutual-exercise, (Date of Accession: 28.12.2022).
[2] “Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, EAM Jaishankar To Visit Tokyo for India-Japan 2+2 Meeting”, Deccan Herald,
https://www.deccanherald.com/national/defence-minister-rajnath-singh-eam-jaishankar-to-visit-tokyo-for-india-japan-22-meeting-1142904.html, (Date of Accession: 28.12.2022).
[3] “At India-Japan 2+2 Meet on Sept 8, Joint Exercises, Defence Cooperation Is Focus”, Hindustan Times, https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/at-india-japan-2-2-meet-on-sept-8-joint-exercises-defence-cooperation-is-focus-101661347630233.html, (Date of Accession: 28.12.2022).
[4] “Basis of Defense Policy”, Japan Ministry of Defense, https://www.mod.go.jp/en/d_policy/basis/index.html, (Date of Accession: 17.12.2022).
