Prime Minister of Montenegro Dritan Abazovic’s announcement that he will sign the “Basic Agreement” on the Serbian Orthodox Church (SPC) in June 2022 has led to the footsteps of the country’s political crisis. Apparently, the Abazovic administration, signed an agreement on 3 August 2022, which won an official status for the SPC, in this process which began with discussions in the coalition government and had different ideological views. The political crisis, which began to deepen immediately after that, caused the Abazovic government to fall by not receiving a vote of confidence on 20 August 2022.
Signing the “Basic Agreement” with the SPC has led to protests in the country. Therefore, the conflicts between the SPC and the Montenegrin Orthodox Church have resulted in the government’s fall. Abazovic, who has adopted a pro-European stance here, has noted that he insists on the agreement. In fact, Abazovic’s desire to improve relations with Serbia and to join the Open Balkan Initiative played a critical role in taking that step.
After that incident, parties have been given thirty days to present the candidate for Prime Minister in order to establish the new government. The pro-Serbian parties demanded that the government be given to Miodrag Lekic, who had lost a small margin to Filip Vujanovic, hours before the end of that period, and handed it to President Milo Djukanovic. Lekic served as Foreign Minister of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (Serbia-Montenegro) between 1 August 1992-17 May 1995 and was nominated for the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) in the 2013 Presidential Elections. However, pro-Serbian parties[1] have not been able to deliver all the signatures of the Members of Parliament (MPs) that support Lekic’s candidacy, which was said to have defended Montenegro’s failure to leave Serbia at the time. Djukanovic then turned down the offer, saying it was in accordance with the constitution, and suggested that the election be held on 23 October 2022.
Djukanovic said Montenegro faces a “devastated” system, and said, “We need to reach responsible management and government in the country”. he made an assessment.[2] Following Djukanovic’s statements, there were discussions about the coup attempt.[3] Djukanovic’s failure to hand over his mandate to form a government to pro-Serbian Lekic has angered Lekic’s supporters. In this context, the pro-Serbian MPs, who argued Djukanovic violated the constitution because Lekic rejected his candidacy have signed for Djunakovic’s declining 41 deputies and submitted it to Speaker of Parliament Danijela Durovic. [4]
Another issue that stands out is that the United Reform movement (URA), led by Abazovic, an Albanian-based and has a pro-European stance, has not signed Lekic’s candidacy, but has spoken verbally.[5] However, URA lawmakers have not signed for Djunakovic’s determination. Therefore, it can be stated that the URA, led by Abazovic, supports pro-Serbian Lekic, is related to URA’s desire to be in every government.
In some of the news, URA’s “verbal” support for Lekic may resulted from some disagreement between Djukanovic and Abazovic. Because, Abazovic accused Djukanovic of protecting criminal networks within the country on 21 September 2022. In this context, Abazovic said that Djukanovic provoked religious and ethnic divisions, which led to his government’s fall in August 2022.[6]
Minister of Foreign Affairs of Montenegro Ranko Krivokapic, who has been interpreting these developments as “coup attempt” in the country, noted a crisis that could grow in Montenegro after Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina, which would affect regional stability and all of these developments are a reflection of the war in Ukraine.[7] Referring to Russia’s influence in the Balkans, Krikokapic implied that Moscow had an impact on recent developments in the country.[8]
“Montenegro has a bit of political confusion, but I don’t think there’s a solution that leaves us out of the government,” Abazovic said.[9] He expressed that the solution could either be provided by early elections or by a new coalition agreement; however, in both cases, URA and its allies have indicated that they will be part of the new government. [10]
With all of these developments, it can be claimed that Pro-Serbian parties in Montenegro are trying to come to power, which is supported by Russia. In fact, on September 14, 2022, the United States (US) claimed that Russia secretly funded political parties in many Balkan countries, including Montenegro.[11] In the countries concerned, it is likely that this is the right situation. Because Moscow can use the fragility in the Balkans to promote especially Serb separatists, and attempt to destabilize the situation in the region. It is no coincidence that President of Russia Vladimir Putin hosted President of Bosnia and Herzegovina Milorad Dodik in Moscow on 20 September 2022 before the 2 October 2022 election.[12] Therefore, it is necessary to assess the developments in Montenegro and particularly the discussions of the coup attempt.
As a result, Pro-Serbian parties in Montenegro, which are thought to be supported by Russia, are curious about what they will do after the decision at the Assembly meeting on 30 September 2022. Therefore, “does the Pro-Serb Democratic Front (DP) come to power in Montenegro; or do you go to early elections?” the answer to questions such as remains unclear: Brussels is not expected to welcome a pro-Serbian government in the country.
[1] “Crna Gora–čardak ni na nebu ni na zemlji”, Al Jazeera Balkans, https://balkans.aljazeera.net/opinions/2022/9/25/crna-gora-cardak-ni-na-nebu-ni-na-zemlji, (Date of Accession: 27.09.2022).
[2]“Decision from the President of Montenegro to take the Elections rather than the establishment of a New Government”, Anadolu Agency (AA), https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/dunya/karadag-cumhurbaskanindan-yeni-hukumet-kurulmasi-yerine-secime-gidilmesi-karari/2692392, (Date of Access: 27.09.2022).
[3] “Međusobne optužbe za pokušaj državnog udara u Crnoj Gori”, Al Jazeera Balkans, https://balkans.aljazeera.net/videos/2022/9/21/medjusobne-optuzbe-za-pokusaj-drzavnog-udara-u-crnoj-gori, (Date of Accession: 27.09.2022).
[4] “In Montenegro, the President Proposed to Dissolve the Parliament and the MPs Initiated his Impeachment”, Babel, https://babel.ua/en/news/84640-in-montenegro-the-president-proposed-to-dissolve-the-parliament-and-the-mps-initiated-his-impeachment, (Date of Accession: 27.09.2022).
[5] “Djukanovic Proposes Dissolving Montenegrin Assembly Early: I couldn’t Give Mandate to Form Government to Lekic”, Telegraf, https://www.telegraf.rs/english/3558656-djukanovic-proposes-dissolving-montenegrin-assembly-early-i-couldnt-give-mandate-to-form-government-to-lekic, (Date of Accession: 27.09.2022).
[6] “Abazovic: “Djukanovic Suç Şebekelerini Koruyor”, Balkan News, https://www.balkannews.com.tr/karadag/abazovic-djukanovic-suc-sebekelerini-koruyor-h4422.html, (Erişm Tarihi: 27.09.2022).
[7] “Krivokapić: Krizu riješiti izborima, Crna Gora vruća tačka na Balkanu”, Dan, https://www.dan.co.me/vijesti/politika/krivokapic-krizu-rijesiti-izborima-crna-gora-vruca-tacka-na-balkanu-5137726, (Date of Accession: 27.09.2022).
[8] Ibid.
[9] “Montenegro’s PM Says Organised Crime Used İnfluence to Oust Him Over Raids”, The Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/25/montenegro-prime-minister-dritan-abazovic, (Date of Accession: 27.09.2022).
[10] Ibid.
[11] “US official: Russia secretly financed DF in Montenegro and Dodik in BH”, N1, https://rs.n1info.com/english/news/us-official-russia-secretly-financed-df-in-montenegro-and-dodik-in-bh/, (Date of Accession: 27.09.2022).
[12]“Putin meets Bosnian Serb separatist leader, praises Serbia”, The Washington Post, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/putin-meets-bosnian-serb-separatist-leader-praises-serbia/2022/09/20/4c8f818c-390c-11ed-b8af-0a04e5dc3db6_story.html, (Date of Accession: 27.09.2022).
