On 2 February 2024, North Korea announced that it had tested new land-air missiles and cruise missiles from its west coast, aiming to increase the defensive capabilities of these weapons. Thus, Pyongyang conducted missile tests for the fourth time in a week.[1]
“These tests are part of normal activities under the supervision of the Directorate-General and the Defence Development Agency, and improve various aspects such as function, performance and operation of new weapon systems in order to advance their technology regardless of the regional situation,” North Korean state media (KCNA) announced. North Korea, on the other hand, said it had tested “strategic” cruise missiles. This implies that these tests could have been intended to deliver nuclear warheads.[2]
North Korea’s characterisation of the missiles as “strategic” raises the possibility that these missiles could be capable of carrying nuclear warheads. This can be considered as a part of North Korea’s nuclear deterrence strategy. These tests, which aim to increase its defence capabilities, may significantly affect North Korea’s regional balance of power.
On the other hand, North Korea is also testing new submarine-launched cruise missiles (SLCM). The South Korean Army has stated that North Korea is trying to upgrade its capabilities with these missiles. On 2 February 2024, the day of the test, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un inspected a shipyard in the west coast port of Nampho and stressed the importance of a strong naval force as part of “war preparations”.[3]
According to KCNA, during his visit to the shipyard, Kim said, “Strengthening the naval force is the most important issue to speed up war preparations.” In addition, Kim was informed about the construction of various warships under a new “grand plan” set by the North Korean leadership.[4]
Kim Jong Un’s emphasis on naval forces and plans to build new warships indicate that North Korea aims to strengthen its sea-based defence strategies. Sea-based missiles, such as cruise missiles launched from submarines, could increase North Korea’s influence on maritime security in the region.
The presence of many different island states in the Asia-Pacific and the fact that most of the disputes in the region are related to the sea undeniably increase the importance of the navy and sea power for states that want to exist as a military power in the region. For example, the AUCUS is an alliance based on submarine power. On the other hand, China also attaches great importance to its naval power and navy. The Philippines is also aware of the importance of naval forces and is developing this concept. Asia-Pacific geopolitics consists of island states, which leads regional actors to attach importance to their navies.
North Korea’s recent successive missile tests have created a serious source of tension in the regional and international security environment. These tests demonstrate North Korea’s advances in ballistic and cruise missile technologies and have the potential to have a serious impact on regional security balances.
At a 2021 government meeting, Kim laid out a roadmap for developing and upgrading the country’s military capabilities. These included the construction of nuclear submarines and underwater drones capable of nuclear strikes.[5]
Within the framework of its official state policy called Juche, North Korea is a country that aims not to be dependent on foreign countries in any matter and to exist entirely with its own resources. The basis of this independence idea is military independence. As a matter of fact, it can be said that all these developments and trials stem from this idea. In this context, Pyongyang is implementing this official state policy starting from military capacity and security conjuncture.
In recent months, North Korea has tested various weapons, including ballistic missile systems under development and underwater drones. North Korea has accused the United States (US) and South Korea of escalating tensions through large-scale military exercises and stated that it has no choice but to step up preparations for nuclear war.[6]
South Korea is likely to revise its military strategies and security policies. This may affect the security plans of other actors in the region. As a matter of fact, South Korea is one of the states that feel the Pyongyang-based threat most closely due to its geopolitical position and the ideological ruptures in North Korea. This means that Seoul has to take measures against Pyongyang’s actions. These measures can be listed as follows; deepening South Korea’s alliance with the US and the Western pole, developing alliance relations with states such as Japan, which are both in the Western bloc and closely feel the threat of North Korea, and finally increasing South Korea’s military capacity.
On the other hand, it can be said that this situation may cause a regional security dilemma and an arms race and increase the possibility of a hot conflict in the future. It can be said that Seoul’s actions and military exercises, which are mainly implemented within the framework of the Western conjuncture, provoke North Korea rather than deter it. This, in turn, causes Pyongyang to harden even more and completely abandon the ways of dialogue. As a matter of fact, all these factors play a role in increasing tensions in the Asia-Pacific.
North Korea’s missile tests may raise regional and global security concerns. This could lead to tensions in diplomatic relations with other countries and reactions of the international community against North Korea. Moreover, these tests may also pose a test for the effectiveness of international sanctions and regional security co-operation.
In conclusion, North Korea’s missile tests point to a series of complex security and diplomatic dynamics at the regional and global levels. These events are attracting the attention of the international community and prompting an assessment of regional security strategies.
[1] “North Korea Tested Firing Cruise Missiles on Feb 2 -KCNA”, Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/north-korea-tested-firing-cruise-missiles-feb-2-kcna-2024-02-02/, (Date of Accesion: 03.02.2024).
[2] “North Korea Fires Cruise Missiles off West Coast – Seoul”, Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/north-korea-fires-multiple-cruise-missiles-south-korea-2024-02-02/, (Date of Accesion: 03.02.2024).
[3] “North Korea Tests More Cruise Missiles as Leader Kim Calls for War Readiness”, Associated Press News, https://apnews.com/article/north-korea-warships-kim-jong-un-7b95a61efb1b099b6b9142369d465629, (Date of Accesion: 03.02.2024).
[4] “North Korea Tested Firing Cruise Missiles on Feb 2 -KCNA”, Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/north-korea-tested-firing-cruise-missiles-feb-2-kcna-2024-02-02/, (Date of Accesion: 03.02.2024).
[5] Ibıd.
[6] Ibıd.
