The informal leaders’ summit of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) was held on October 7, 2022, in St. Petersburg. The leaders of Azerbaijan, Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan attended the summit hosted by Russia. In terms of the messages delivered, the Summit was critical for both CIS countries, Russia, and the rest of the world.
President of Russia Vladimir Putin spoke at the Summit about the strengthening of economic relations between the nations. In this regard, it can be said Putin has focused on developing CIS trade and investment partnerships, strengthening economies, and establishing technological dominance. He also discussed the conflicts and security issues that exist between Russia’s leader, CIS members, and post-Soviet countries. Putin cited Ukraine as an example, stating that some conflicts have occurred between states and that measures should be taken in this regard. He also stated that ideas about combating terrorism, extremism, drug smuggling, and organized crime should be exchanged.[1]
Based on what Putin has said, it is possible to conclude that Moscow is attempting to avoid the Western sanctions imposed on Russia through CIS member countries as Russia is experiencing economic difficulties. Therefore, it exports energy to countries such as China at lower costs. Due to the deterioration of its relations with the West, Russia is shifting its focus to Central Asia and the Caucasus. Therefore, Putin’s emphasis on economic resilience is becoming increasingly important at this point.
As is well known, Western and Chinese companies have recently increased their presence in Central Asia and the Caucasus. This situation will erode Russia’s ability to compete economically with these countries in the long run. Furthermore, the fact that both Europe and China see Central Asia and the Caucasus as viable energy sources will reduce the pressure that Moscow exerts on the West through energy. However, energy is a major source of revenue for countries in the region such as Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan. As a result, Putin’s speech focused on the economy rather than energy.
One of the reasons Putin mentioned post-Soviet conflicts was the increased propaganda following the Russia-Ukraine War about Moscow not being a peace-seeking actor and pursuing policies that seek to achieve its interests by utilizing various frozen conflict zones. As a result, during his meeting with the CIS countries, Russian President Vladimir Putin attempted to give the impression that the Kremlin could play a peaceful and constructive role by declaring that measures should be taken to prevent conflicts.
Due to the Russia-Ukraine War, the Moscow administration prioritized the western borders and the economy. The current situation has weakened Moscow’s regional influence. However, it can be stated that Putin intends to maintain his influence through the CIS by implementing various measures and establishing mechanisms in conflict zones.
Finally, since Central Asian states are neighbors to a country with various security threats, such as Afghanistan, Putin’s statements on the fight against terrorism, extremism, drugs, and crime are especially important in Central Asia. Furthermore, radical and separatist movements that are growing and spreading around the world pose a threat to all CIS countries. As a result, Russia places this emphasis to keep these states together, maintain its influence, and eliminate threats.
While the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) military exercises in Kazakhstan continue, exercises are planned in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. This can be interpreted as Russia continuing to contribute to the aforementioned countries’ security issues. However, the cancellation of the exercises in Kyrgyzstan and other countries’ discussions about joining the CSTO indicates that Moscow’s job is far from easy.
The points raised by Putin are significant not only for the post-Soviet region but also for the entire Eurasian geography. Putin’s goal for the CIS Summit was to demonstrate that Russia maintains healthy political, economic, and military ties. However, determining the exact impact of the messages delivered on the geography of the CIS is difficult. Because, while tensions in the CIS geography tend to decrease, conflicts persist. Furthermore, the West and China’s interest in CIS countries other than Russia is growing by the day.
[1] “Informal Meeting of CIS Heads of State”, President of Russia, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69551, (Date of Accession: 08.10.2022).
