Geographically, Afghanistan is one of the most important countries connecting Central Asia and South Asia. During the intervention stage of the United States (US) in Afghanistan, during the withdrawal process and the second Taliban period, Central Asian governments and India, a South Asian state, followed various policies. Security and interests are the most important factors shaping the policies and perceptions of the administrations.
During and after the withdrawal of the US, Central Asian states in general, such as solving the problem in Afghanistan as soon as possible, building a healthy system in the country, including Afghanistan in regional projects and cooperation by developing pragmatist policies, and taking various measures against security threats. Various similar attitudes have been adopted and policies have been developed. In this process, for example, Uzbekistan took the initiative to solve Afghanistan-centered problems using various international conferences; Turkmenistan tried to prevent the deepening of the crisis in Afghanistan with its humanitarian aid.
Tajikistan, on the other hand, brought various criticisms to the administration, which it declared after the Taliban seized Kabul after the withdrawal of the US. Dushanbe argued that the Tajik population was ignored. Relations between the parties have been strained due to Tajikistan’s support of Tajiks in Afghanistan. However, as can be seen, the conflict between them does not provide any benefit to the parties. Therefore, the isolation process of the Taliban continues, and the economic problems deepen. On the other hand, the Dushanbe administration becomes the target of various threats caused by tensions and incurs a significant cost due to the economic resources it spends on defence.
India, on the other hand, is one of the largest states in South Asia and is a rising power in Asia. In this context, it is closely interested in various developments and threat sources in its geography. India, which supports the US intervention in Afghanistan, is one of the states that does not support the US withdrawal from Afghanistan. However, as can be seen in the example of Tajikistan, New Delhi seems to have realized that the policies it followed did not bring any benefits to it and the security problems in the region deepened. Thus, it can be said that there have been some changes in India’s Afghanistan policy.
First, the Indian government contacted the Taliban rather than excluding them. In this context, on June 2, 2022, Indian officials visited Kabul to meet with the Taliban. During the visit, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs delegation headed by senior diplomat J. P. Singh met with the Taliban Foreign Minister Amir Khan Mottaki. During the meeting, bilateral relations and humanitarian aid were discussed. In this process, India sent 20,000 tons of wheat, 13 tons of medicine, 500,000 doses of Covid-19 vaccine and winter clothes to overcome the problems experienced by the Afghan people.[1]
The New Delhi administration has shown that it is both in favour of resolving the Afghanistan crisis and will continue to use soft power elements as in the pre-Taliban period.
On the other hand, on 6 December 2022, the national security advisers of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan held a meeting hosted by India. However, Turkmenistan was represented by the Ambassador in New Delhi. Looking at the issues discussed at the meeting, it is seen that states have adopted similar policies against Afghanistan and security threats in the region. The fact that the shared news regarding the talks emphasizes that India and Central Asian countries have common interests in peace, security and stability in the region is proof of this.[2]
When the developments are examined, it can be said that India’s changing attitude coincides with the policies of Central Asian countries, that New Delhi tried to turn the conjuncture that it perceived as negative with the coming to power of the Taliban into gains with various contacts and that it took the regional states that followed constructive policies as a reference.
The parties’ approaches to security will ensure stronger relations. Because, considering the influence of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, it can be stated that the relations will continue to develop in a bilateral and multilateral way. In particular, the perception of a common threat will bring about the strengthening of the perception of common interest.
Although security is the basis of the relations established between India and Central Asian countries, the parties aim to strengthen economic relations, create geographical ties, and build corridors between them. The economic and political gains that the objectives will bring to the parties will positively affect the stability of Central and South Asia.
On the other hand, the construction of a corridor between regions including Afghanistan will provide important gains to Dushanbe and Kabul. Because these gains and the returns of the realized projects will also allow the tension between Dushanbe and the Taliban administration to abate.
As a result, relations between Central Asian countries and India are developing in a multi-faceted way. A parallel line of perceptions between the parties, especially against security threats, will accelerate the development process of relations. When the developments after the Taliban’s capture of Kabul are examined, a significant change is seen in the policies of New Delhi. On the other hand, the Taliban will pay more attention to the sensitivities of the regional states. In this context, the intensification of relations on the Central Asia-Afghanistan-India line and the construction of corridors will gain momentum. Thus, instead of isolation, win-win policies to be developed within the pragmatist framework for Afghanistan will contribute to the stability and security of Central Asia and South Asia at the maximum level.
[1] “Indian Officials Meet Taliban in Kabul in First Visit since US Exit”, The Times of India, https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/indian-officials-meet-taliban-in-kabul-in-first-visit-since-us-exit/articleshow/91967042.cms, (Date of Accession: 07.12.2022).
[2] “India to Host Conclave of Top Security Officials of Central Asian Countries on December 6”, The Hindu, https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/india-to-host-conclave-of-top-security-officials-of-central-asian-countries-on-december-6/article66228336.ece, (Date of Accession: 07.12.2022).
