Although the tension between Kosovo and Serbia, which rose in the summer of 2022 with the decision of the Pristina administration to implement the uniform identity and license plate application for everyone in the country, including Kosovo Serbs, softened from time to time, especially with the mediation efforts of the European Union (EU), 8 December 2022 Once again in its history, it caused Europe to feel the fear of war.
At the date, Kosovo police increased the number of personnel in the Serb-dominated Northern Mitrovica region,[1] It drew the reaction of the Serbs living in the region and barricades were set up at the entrances of the cities.[2] This led to an increase in ethnic tensions. In this context, a process took place that brought Kosovars and Serbs, who constitute most of the population in the country, against each other, and Pristina and Belgrade in terms of interstate relations.
At this point, it can be stated that the events in Kosovo should be handled from three different perspectives, based on the country’s internal dynamics, the balances in the region, and the global power struggle. Ignoring one of the mentioned perspectives may lead to an incomplete reading and thus make erroneous determinations.
First, it should be stated that Kosovo’s biggest concern is “Being Bosnia.” In this sense, it is seen that the main event that increased the tension in the region is the issue of the “Serbian Union of Municipalities.” Because although a certain consensus has been reached in the negotiations on the license plate and identity crisis under the mediation of the EU, the differences on the issue of the “Serbian Union of Municipalities” continue.
The establishment of the “Association of Serbian Municipalities” was accepted by the Government of Kosovo in the Brussels Agreement in 2013, but it is a bill that the Constitutional Court later rejected. The person who brought the issue to the Constitutional Court is the current Prime Minister of Kosovo, Albin Kurti, who was in the opposition at that time.
As can be expected, the Kurti administration refrains from opening the door to a process that may lead to division in the future, based on the experience in Bosnia. In such an environment, the early local elections to be held in the municipalities of Northern Mitrovica, Zubin Potok, Leposavic and Zveçan were also influential during the developments. Because the Serbian regions, which were withdrawn from the municipalities during the license plate crisis, are in a sensitive position. Therefore, the President of Kosovo, Vjosa Osmani, announced that he postponed the elections to April 2023.[3] In other words, Kosovo has sensitive dynamics that stand out from the ethnic tensions in other Balkan countries.
Undoubtedly, at this point, the issue is closely related to the regional balances between Kosovo and Serbia. What makes the issue complicated here is that Kosovo unilaterally declared its independence from Serbia in 2008; However, this independence is not recognized by the Belgrade administration.
Moreover, Serbia is not indifferent to its compatriots living in both Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo. This situation is closely related to the idea of “Greater Serbia” and pan-Slavist ideas. Accordingly, the escalation of ethnic tension in the north of Kosovo automatically turns what is happening into a crisis on the Pristina-Belgrade line. Moreover, Serbia’s interest in the Serbs in Kosovo, on the one hand, compares Bosnia and Herzegovina with similar events; On the other hand, it worries the Tirana administration because most of Kosovo’s population is Albanian. This means that if weapons explode in Kosovo, regional chaos may become inevitable. Therefore, regional dynamics are quite fragile.
The Balkans, which hosts fragile fault lines in geopolitical terms, draws attention as an area where the global power struggle takes place. It is not possible to evaluate the crisis between Pristina and Belgrade independently of the Russia-Ukraine War and therefore the power struggle between Russia and the West.
Currently, Russia has a certain influence over Serbia, with the influence of pan-Slavism. In this sense, the Moscow administration, which could not achieve the desired results in Ukraine, may be trying to send a message to the European states through the emergence of new crisis areas in its close vicinity and to direct the EU’s attention to geographies other than Ukraine.
On the other hand, Kosovo has been positioned as an actor close to the United States of America (USA) since its independence. Even after the Kosovo police were shot at, Kurti expressed that his country is democratic and pro-Western.[4]
In this sense, it is possible to state that Kosovo, which is concerned about “Bosnia”, attaches importance to the USA and NATO in general, and tries to ensure its national security through the North Atlantic Treaty Organization Kosovo Task Force (KFOR).
Serbia, on the other hand, is close to Russia in the global power struggle, but it mainly takes care of its national interests and tries to implement a versatile foreign policy. As a matter of fact, on the one hand, Belgrade kept a distance from the sanctions targeting Moscow; on the other hand, the EU maintains its goal of membership and attaches importance to it in terms of its future projection. In short, in the Balkans, an area where the global power struggle takes place, each country tries to achieve maximum gain in line with its national interests and seeks ways to effectively use the balance in the region.
At this point, both Kosovo’s positioning on Western values and Serbia’s EU membership goal position Brussels as a mediator. The role of the EU has come to the fore in the negotiation processes carried out since the summer of 2022. As a matter of fact, despite all the tensions, it can be foreseen that there will be a search for reconciliation under the mediation of the EU. However, it is known that on 12 December 2022, the US State Department Western Balkans Advisor Derek Chollet started his regional visit.[5] This indicates that the USA can also be positioned as a “peacemaker” actor in the Balkans. Because Serbian President Alexander Vucic wanted the international community to take action for peace and Serbian Defense Minister Milos Vucevic drew attention to the importance of dialogue.
As a result, the tension between Kosovo and Serbia in the Balkans, which is extremely fragile geography due to ethnic fault lines, has once again escalated in the case of Kosovo Serbs. However, it can be said that hot conflict is not the priority option of any side and there is a prudent approach that prefers dialogue. Although a serious war is not expected in the short term in the Balkans, which has been thrown into an even more sensitive ground with the Russia-Ukraine War, it does not seem easy to achieve sustainable peace in the medium and long term. The main reason for this is that the parties cannot develop a reasonable dialogue language to understand each other’s concerns.
[1] “Kosova Polisi, Ülkenin Kuzeyindeki Mevcudiyetini Artırdı”, TRT Haber, https://www.trthaber.com/haber/dunya/kosova-polisi-ulkenin-kuzeyindeki-mevcudiyetini-artirdi-729459.htmlve, (Date of Accession: 13.12.2022).
[2] “Kosova’da Sırplar Yolları Kesti”, Hürriyet, https://www.hurriyet.com.tr/dunya/kosovada-sirplar-yollari-kesti-42186574, (Date of Accession: 13.12.2022).
[3] “Kosova’nın Kuzeyindeki 4 Belediyede Erken Yerel Seçimler Nisan 2023’e Ertelendi”, TRT Avaz, https://www.trtavaz.com.tr/haber/tur/avrasyadan/kosova-nin-kuzeyindeki-4-belediyede-erken-yerel-secimler-nisan-2023-e-ertelendi/6394c83d01a30a10b86b54d8, (Date of Accession: 13.12.2022).
[4] “Kosova’nın Kuzeyinde Polise Ateş Açıldı”, NTV, https://www.ntv.com.tr/dunya/kosovanin-kuzeyinde-polise-ates-acildi,5WZLYef3PEuWSNA8sG9o4w, (Date of Accession: 13.12.2022).
[5] “Sırbistan-Kosova Geriliminde Son Durum: ABD’li Diplomat Bölgeye Gitti”, Hürriyet, https://www.hurriyet.com.tr/dunya/sirbistan-kosova-geriliminde-son-durum-abdli-diplomat-bolgeye-gitti-42186232, (Date of Accession: 13.12.2022).
