The withdrawal of the United States of America (USA) from Afghanistan caused serious changes in the regional security dynamics of South Asia. The power vacuum in the region has led to the increase of local radical structures and extremist movements. As a result, there has been an increase in terrorist acts in the region. Finally, on January 30, 2023, an explosion occurred in Kabul, the capital of Afghanistan.[1] In addition, a terrorist attack was carried out on a mosque in Peshawar Province of Pakistan on January 31, 2023, and approximately 100 people died in the attack.[2]
The terrorist attacks that took place in the two countries brought about the acceleration of counter operations by both Islamabad and the Taliban. The so-called Emirate of Khorasan (ISKP) of State of Iraq and the Levant (DAESH) and the terrorist organization Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) come to the fore in the attacks. Currently, TTP is active in Pakistan and ISKP in Afghanistan. However, it is known that the terrorist organization DAESH has also carried out attacks and is present in Pakistan. As a matter of fact, in March 2022, the organization carried out a mosque attack similar to the last attack in Pakistan.[3]
After the ceasefire between the terrorist organization TTP and the Islamabad administration ended, the organization intensified its activities. While the aforementioned situation poses serious threats to Pakistan’s national security, on the other hand, it has led to an increase in tension in the Taliban-Pakistani relations. At this point, it is seen that Russia and the USA are trying to be active in the fight of Islamabad and Taliban administrations against these organizations.
The Pakistani Government has made statements that it will respond with hard force and carry out an operation against the TTP’s increasing attacks. It is seen that a new negotiation process is not on the agenda. As a matter of fact, after the Pakistan National Security Council Meeting, statements were made that counter-operations would be launched. Previously, it was declared by the army that in August 2022, operations would be carried out against the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan regions.
With the year 2023, more importance has been given to this issue. Attack rates have also increased. According to statistics from the Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies (PICSS), an Islamabad-based think tank, the number of attacks increased by 44% in December 2022 compared to November.[4] In this context, on January 2, 2023, Pakistani Minister of Interior Rana Sanaullah stated that Pakistan has the right to destroy the terrorist organization TTP camps in Afghanistan.[5] The aforementioned situation escalated the tension between the Taliban and Islamabad.
The Washington administration also announced that it stands by Islamabad and will support these operations. [6] Expressions of support for the steps to be taken by the country on national security also reveal the extent of the US-Pakistani relations. With Shahbaz Sharif becoming the Prime Minister of Pakistan, a more moderate and developing relationship dynamic has emerged between the parties. Statements that Washington will support in the event of a possible operation show that the USA attaches importance to Islamabad in its South Asian policy.
Pakistan also plays a critical role in Washington’s Afghanistan policy. Although Islamabad has not attempted a cross-border operation, these statements of support are crucial. As for the operation, it can be predicted that Islamabad will not take a step in this direction in the short term.
On the other hand, Russia has recently come to the fore as a country that has increased its visits to Pakistan and Afghanistan. Relations between Russia and Pakistan have a rising momentum, especially in the energy field.
As it will be remembered, in November 2022, Pakistani Oil Minister Musadik Malik visited Moscow; On January 17, 2023, a Russian delegation visited Islamabad. It is desired to develop oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) exchanges between the parties. However, Russia has also shown its interest in the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India Natural Gas Pipeline (TAPI). In addition, Pakistan is on the agenda to purchase oil at a discounted price. The visit of Russia’s Special Envoy to Afghanistan Zamir Kabulov to Kabul on 12-13 January 2023 also drew attention. Kabulov, who also went to Pakistan after this visit, revealed that Russia has improved its relations with Afghanistan and Pakistan.
These developments brought up the allegation that Moscow is trying to play a constructive role in the tensions between Islamabad and the Taliban. The fact that Kabulov visited the two countries one after the other and that on January 25, 2023, Russia and Pakistan emphasized the need for a “practical engagement” with the Taliban proves this.[7]
It is possible for Russia to bring forward the proposal to act together against DAESH in the fight against terrorism, in terms of providing secure energy connections and developing dialogue with the Taliban. As a matter of fact, it is also known that the terrorist organization DAESH is involved in anti-Russian activities. However, Russia blames the USA for the increase in instability in the region and the activities of DAESH. Therefore, Moscow aims to gain regional superiority against Washington by increasing its dialogue with Islamabad and the Taliban within the scope of cooperation in the fight against terrorism.
The steps of the USA also reveal that they are disturbed by the influence of Russia. Shortly after Kabulov’s visit, on January 31, 2023, US Special Envoy to Afghanistan Tom West visited Islamabad.[8] Although a meeting was held in which Afghanistan-based developments were on the agenda, the Islamabad-Washington dialogue was also discussed.
The USA does not approach Pakistan’s energy cooperation with Russia negatively. However, he does not want the closeness between the parties to develop to his detriment. It is making some moves to ensure control against Russia’s increasing presence on the Afghanistan-Pakistan line. It is possible to consider the said visit in this direction.
Consequently, it can be stated that the Moscow-Washington rivalry has increased in the Afghanistan-Pakistan equation. This competition is shaped within the scope of security and terrorism. Russia, through the Taliban’s fight against the terrorist organization DAESH; The USA, on the other hand, desires to increase its influence through Islamabad’s fight against the terrorist organization TTP. In this context, it can be foreseen that cooperation-based partnerships will develop in the fight against terrorism.
[1] “Explosion Reported in Kabul on Monday Evening”, Mehr News, https://en.mehrnews.com/news/196842/Explosion-reported-in-Kabul-on-Monday-evening, (Date of Accession: 01.02.2023).
[2] “Pakistan Mosque Blast: 100 Confirmed Dead in Marathon Search of Rubble”, BBC, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-64462321, (Date of Accession: 01.02.2023).
[3] “Death Toll Climbs to 63 in Pakistan’s Deadly Daesh Mosque Attack”, Daily Sabah, https://www.dailysabah.com/world/asia-pacific/death-toll-climbs-to-63-in-pakistans-deadly-daesh-mosque-attack, (Date of Accession: 01.02.2023).
[4] “December 2022 Saw Highest Number of Terror Attacks in a Single Month”, The News, https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/1026266-december-2022-saw-highest-number-of-terror-attacks-in-a-single-month, (Date of Accession: 01.02.2023).
[5] “Pakistan Says Will Target TTP on Afghan Soil, Taliban say would not let Anyone Attack Islamic Emirate”, Wio News, https://www.wionews.com/south-asia/pakistan-says-will-target-ttp-on-afghan-soil-taliban-says-things-can-be-resolved-by-dialogue-548657, (Date of Accession: 01.02.2023).
[6] “U.S. Signals Support for Pakistan Against Resurgent Terror Threats”, Asia Nikkei, https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/U.S.-signals-support-for-Pakistan-against-resurgent-terror-threats, (Date of Accession: 01.02.2023).
[7] “Russia, Pakistan Discuss ‘Practical Engagement’ With Afghan Taliban”, VOA, https://www.voanews.com/a/russia-pakistan-discuss-practical-engagement-of-afghan-taliban/6934082.html, (Date of Accession: 01.02.2023).
[8] “US Envoy to Afghanistan Arrives in Islamabad”, The News, https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/1036026-us-envoy-to-afghanistan-arrives-in-islamabad, (Date of Accession: 01.02.2023).
