Qatar, the address of the Taliban’s negotiations with both the United States of America (USA) and the ousted Afghan Government, still maintains its role in the context of mediation diplomacy in the Afghan Problem, albeit in different ways. As a matter of fact, many actors, especially the United States, are in contact with the Taliban through Doha instead of directly communicating with them. This is the main reason why essential relations had developed between Qatar and the Taliban since 2013, when the Taliban’s political office in Doha was opened.
Since August 2021, when the second Taliban era began in Afghanistan, the Doha administration has focused on humanitarian aid activities and taken a constructive stance rather than focusing on geopolitical competition conducted over the country. In other words, Qatar has taken initiatives that prioritize ensuring stability in the country rather than taking steps that will isolate Afghanistan from the international community and radicalize the Taliban. At the same time, Qatar has been the Taliban’s gateway to the West regarding its role. Of course, this situation has led to the fact that the Taliban has developed trust-based cooperation with Doha.
On July 11-12, 2022, Taliban Defense Minister Mullah Mohammad Yaqoup Mujahid visited the Qatari capital Doha and met with several Qatari dignitaries, especially the Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Sani. Mücahit. On July 12, 2022, when Mujahid returned to Kabul, he said, “The Doha administration is interested in an agreement to be signed between the Ministries of Defense of Qatar and the Taliban. There will be a security agreement in which the two countries will cooperate.”[1] he made a statement announcing that a security-based agreement would be signed between the parties. The Taliban Defense Minister, who also provided information on the content of the possible agreement, said:[2]
“We call on them to cooperate in providing salaries to the military. Because Qatar is an Islamic country and has helped Afghanistan in the past, we also expect that borders will help us ensure security and supply uniforms to our military forces.”
As may be seen from the above statements, the main expectations of the Taliban from Qatar are to help military personnel pay salaries and facilitate the supply of uniforms and equipment. However, it is foreseeable that the Taliban may turn to Qatar to supply new weapons and equipment, and the possible agreement will not be limited. This is the modernization of the army with the support of Qatar in Afghanistan, and, more accurately, the army is constituted in the form of a modern national army. Therefore, the agreement that the parties are working on is a harbinger of the evolution of Qatar’s Afghanistan policy, which began with mediation diplomacy and continues with humanitarian assistance to a new stage.
It is also possible to argue that the fight against the terrorist organization State of Iraq and Sham (DAESH) will take place at a new stage. Considering that the Doha administration is the actor that establishes the connection between the Taliban and the West, one may said that the most important expectation of Western states from the Taliban is engaged in combating terrorism and preventing the use of the territory of Afghanistan against other states. Moreover, the Taliban has also committed to this issue in the Doha Treaty of February 29, 2020. However, recently, the activities of DAESH in Afghanistan have increased, and even allegations that the terrorist organization in question has carried out missile attacks on countries such as Uzbekistan and Tajikistan from the territory of Afghanistan have been reflected in the international press. In addition, local sources claim that al-Qaeda has recently started to use Afghanistan more frequently for recruitment purposes. In this context, the cooperation to be made in the fight against terrorism may be the basis of Qatar’s signing of an agreement with the Taliban, covering the areas of security and defence.
In the event of such a development, Qatar will also ensure that the Taliban takes a line in line with the expectations of the international community in the fight against terrorism since Qatar is one of the strategic partners of the United States. In this sense, it should also be emphasized that the role assumed by Doha is not only related to security policies. As noted by political analyst Torek Farhadi, Qatar may have offered a consultative agreement with Western countries to encourage the Taliban to introduce reforms that the international community wants.[3] Therefore, the agenda of the security agreement on the Qatar-Taliban line may also evolve into security-based cooperation. Moreover, if the process proceeds in a healthy way, this agreement may also open the doors to international recognition for the Taliban administration, which any state has not officially recognized. Time will tell the fate of these possibilities.
At this point, discussing another issue focusing on security-based cooperation between the parties is necessary: the facilities’ safety. Therefore, one of the topics that may be included in the possible agreement may be the security of various facilities, especially airports in Afghanistan, since there have been various discussions on this issue for a long time.
On the other hand, it can be said that the Taliban’s benevolent view of signing a security agreement with Qatar has some geopolitical messages. In the context of global power balances, the Taliban’s preference for Qatar shows that it also wants to consider the Western balance while maintaining its contacts with actors such as China and Russia. At the regional level, the fact that the Taliban prefer to sign a security agreement with Qatar instead of Pakistan indicates that there are some inconveniences with the Taliban regarding Pakistan’s Afghanistan policy. Although the Taliban is an organization in which Pakistan has influence, the presence of a Pashtun nationalist character in this structure causes various disagreements due to the Durand Line Issue. In addition, the Islamabad administration linking the terrorist attacks in Pakistan to Afghanistan may deepen these disputes, although they remain at the current level of cyclical tension. In this sense, the Taliban may have interpreted Doha as an actor that would also balance Islamabad. As a matter of fact, it remains in the memory that Pakistan does not take kindly to the proposal of Turkey and Qatar at the point of operation of Kabul Airport. This confirms the difference in the expectations of Islamabad and Doha regarding Afghanistan.
As a result, the Taliban has developed important relations with the Doha administration since it opened its political office in 2013, and Qatar has been positioned as the Taliban’s gateway to the West. The security agreement, which is being considered to be signed at this point, can be interpreted as the first of the steps the West expects the Taliban to take, especially in the fight against terrorism. In the coming period, the Taliban will likely develop comprehensive cooperation with Qatar, ranging from the creation of the modern Afghan Army to the fight against terrorism and border security. However, it should be noted that the possible agreement does not mean that Qatar will officially recognize the Taliban. But it can be considered as the beginning of the process leading to recognition. Moreover, the course of the process may also serve to put the Taliban’s relations with the West on a proper footing.
[1] “Qatar ‘Interested’ in Security Agreement in Afghanistan: Taliban Official”, Doha News, https://dohanews.co/qatar-interested-in-security-agreement-in-afghanistan-taliban-official/, (Date of Accession: 18.07.2022).
[2] “Kabul, Doha to Sign Security Agreement: Acting Defense Minister”, Tolo News, https://tolonews.com/afghanistan-178885, (Date of Accession: 18.07.2022).
[3] Ibid.
