The year 2022 went down in history as the year that North Korea conducted the most ballistic missile tests. Pyongyang administration, which carried out a total of six trials in 2021, carried out approximately 70 trials before the end of 2022.[1] That situation raised security concerns in the region to a critical level. The concerns that North Korea’s activities have increased have been answered in the form of military exercises in the region in partnership with the United States (US), South Korea and Japan. Those exercises, on the other hand, provoke North Korea rather than deter it.
It was tried to decide to increase sanctions by the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) to deter North Korea, which could not take a step back with the exercises, but this decision could not be taken because China and Russia did not approve. In addition, the US has stated many times that diplomatic channels are open in this regard and Washington seeks diplomacy, but Pyongyang has not responded to calls for dialogue.
In the current situation, Pyongyang continues its trials at the same pace, so the security concerns of regional actors are not settled. Especially South Korea and Japan are the states that feel this danger most closely due to their geographical proximity and North Korea’s targeting attitude towards them. The inability to force North Korea to take a step back also triggers the danger and pushes the actors to look for different ways.
As it can be understood, Pyongyang is creating a growing nuclear danger and it cannot be avoided. For this reason, South Korea, which felt the danger most closely and was exposed to many threats from North Korea, made a call to China, which is seen as a geostrategic ally of Pyongyang in terms of foreign policy production, to solve the problem.
In this context, South Korean Foreign Minister Park Jin held a video conference call with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, and Park told Wang that South Korea expects China to actively support dialogue efforts with North Korea. Park then mentioned North Korea’s record number of ballistic missile tests in 2022 and its growing nuclear power, expressed Seoul’s concern and stated that Pyongyang should refrain from further provocations such as possible nuclear tests and engage in dialogue.[2]
On the other hand, it is extremely striking that the call made by South Korea came at a time when China did not approve the North Korean sanctions within the UNSC, and Seoul was holding exercises with the US.
The first point that can be evaluated at this point is the extent of the discomfort caused by North Korea’s actions on South Korea. As mentioned, South Korea exhibits a pro-Western attitude. Because in the Asia-Pacific region, Washington, Seoul, and Tokyo cooperate. It is even claimed that the exercises aim to surround China. However, despite this, South Korea felt the need to call on China to establish dialogue due to increasing security concerns.
Another issue that can be evaluated is the acceptance of both China’s regional influence and close cooperation with North Korea on the call. Because both the sanctions, the exercises and the UNSC do not have an impact on North Korea. At this point, asking China to participate as an active actor in the solution to the North Korean Problem means accepting the strong ties between Beijing and Pyongyang and Beijing’s influence.
In addition to all these, knocking on China’s door regarding the solution to the problem may also create question marks in the eyes of regional actors regarding the effectiveness of the West and the US. The UN and the Pacific alliance, consisting of the US and its allies, have not solved this problem successfully. The fact that a member of that alliance requested support from China confirms this.
The last point that can be evaluated at this point is the possibility of the call causing tension between Seoul and Washington. Because it is not known whether the US was aware of this action by South Korea. This move of the Seoul administration is likely to disturb Washington. Because this approach, which prioritizes communication with Beijing, may harm the alliance on the Tokyo-Seoul-Washington line in the long run.
In short, this call made by Seoul to Beijing may lead to consequences that may harm the Western-based alliance in the region rather than solve the North Korean Problem. If the nuclear threat posed by North Korea continues, it can be predicted that states that closely feel this threat will act in their interests, which will harm their relations with the United States.
[1] “In Growing Arms Frenzy, North Korea Launched Nearly 70 Missiles in 2022”, El Pais, https://english.elpais.com/international/2022-12-02/in-growing-arms-frenzy-north-korea-launched-nearly-70-missiles-in-2022.html, (Date of Accession: 13.12.2022).
[2] “South Korea Urges China to Support Diaologue with North Korea-S. Korea Ministry”, Swissinfo, https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/south-korea-urges-china-to-support-dialogue-with-north-korea—s-korea-ministry/48127886, (Date of Accession: 13.12.2022).
