The estimate of two million additional jobs announced for the Middle Corridor shifts the debate on transport in Eurasia away from the competition between routes on the map and towards a calculation of jobs and income. According to the calculation, which covers nine countries and approximately 200 million people, investments in railways, ports and logistics could more than triple trade along the route by 2040, halve transit times and increase Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 3.3 per cent.[i] These figures can only be achieved under an investment and reform scenario in which the countries act together.
The figure of two million does not correspond to the total number of people who directly lay tracks, work at ports or carry freight. The calculation rests on a more indirect chain. As transport becomes cheaper, firms reach new markets, production grows, and this growth generates jobs in a range of fields, from services to agricultural processing. A train crossing a border faster does not in itself create development. If, however, the same train regularly carries a local factory’s products to foreign markets, economic life around the route can change permanently.
The cost of this is also considerable. At least $25 billion is needed by 2040 to remove physical bottlenecks, and approximately $30.5 billion for the roads, terminals, logistics centres, wagons and digital systems that will connect local economies to the main line. Three quarters of the 16 critical infrastructure investments identified are either under way or at an advanced stage of preparation.[ii] What most often slows the route down is not so much the lack of a new bridge or railway as the inability to operate existing facilities together in a predictable way and according to commercial logic.
This is immediately visible in the geography of the Middle Corridor. Depending on the route chosen, a shipment may cross four or five borders, change rail gauge twice, be transferred between train and ship up to four times and pass through ten separate customs procedures.[iii] Each transfer means a possible delay, damage or additional charge. Shippers care more about knowing the delivery date in advance than about the average transit time. A container that is supposed to arrive within a week but sometimes arrives in ten days and sometimes in twenty can make a route that appears fast expensive in commercial terms.
Whether the employment promise is fulfilled will depend on the links established between the main route and the cities and production areas around it. A railway running across the Kazakh steppe remains merely a metal line for the local population if it does not connect farms to cold storage facilities and export terminals. If maintenance, packaging, warehousing and customs clearance services do not develop around a growing port, income may once again be concentrated in a narrow transport sector.
How the economic returns will be distributed can be estimated by looking at the current freight mix on the route. While grain, fertiliser, fuel and construction materials require high volumes and low costs, container transport relies on regular services, fast handling and precise timing. The corridor may grow in bulk cargo, but it can increase skilled employment only to the extent that it attracts high value-added goods such as machine parts, processed food, textiles and electronic components. In such a transformation, increasing the number of trains is only a small part of the task; the rest depends on producers’ ability to access finance, standards and reliable customs information.
Governance problems come before infrastructure. Most of the railways, ports and maritime transport companies along the route are state-owned. When each institution seeks to protect its own revenue and capacity, the efficiency of the route as a whole may be pushed into the background. The fact that port tariffs are set separately in one country, train schedules in another and border controls in a third makes it difficult to offer cargo owners a single service. Unless an operating framework based on common performance indicators and revenue sharing is established, national investments may fail to produce a seamless regional service.
The proposed common digital document therefore cannot be dismissed as a technical detail. Entering transport contracts, transit records and trade data once and using them across countries could reduce duplication and declaration discrepancies at border crossings. The system can work when customs administrations trust data sharing, when electronic signatures are mutually recognised and when small firms are able to access it. If digitalisation makes things easier for large logistics companies while excluding local businesses through high software costs, the resulting efficiency gains will not spread to local entrepreneurship.
The rise of the corridor cannot be reduced to a temporary geopolitical reaction to the northern route running through Russia. Disruptions in supply chains, security risks on sea routes and extreme weather events push companies to keep more than one route available. The Middle Corridor can respond to this search, but it cannot be expected to take over the entire freight volume of the northern and maritime routes. The realistic goal is to offer a reliable option for certain product groups and to reduce the dependence of the countries in the region on a single transit route.
Türkiye’s calculations involve not only transferring freight coming from the east to Europe but also connecting its own production regions to the railway network. In March 2026, $2 billion in financing was approved for the planned northern railway crossing of the Istanbul Strait, and it was announced that the project could raise annual freight capacity from three million tonnes to 50 million tonnes.[iv] Combined with the renewal of lines in Eastern Anatolia, this investment could strengthen the flow stretching from Kars to the European border. Whether the gains will remain confined to the few cities that host logistics centres will depend on whether industrial and agricultural enterprises are able to access the new capacity.
Alongside the opportunities they offer, large transport projects also create a distribution problem. New terminals can drive up land values, increase pressure for expropriation and reduce livelihood opportunities. When temporary jobs during the construction phase are presented as permanent employment, expectations become inflated. If vocational training programmes are not redesigned around train operations, port management, maintenance, software and customs services, skilled personnel may be brought in from outside, while the local population remains in low-wage jobs. The real social impact of the two-million promise will be determined by where, at what skill level and for how long the jobs are created.
The success of the Middle Corridor will be measured not only by the tonnage carried but also by the value generated along the route. Port, rail and bridge investments can speed up the flow, but it is local companies that take part in this flow as producers, suppliers and service providers that can expand employment. If the countries harmonise their border procedures, run state-owned enterprises with commercial efficiency and connect the main line to economic centres in inland regions, two million jobs can become an achievable development goal. Otherwise, more freight will be carried across Eurasia, but the societies through which it passes may not experience the transformation they expect.
[i] “Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor Investments Could Spur Growth and Create Millions of Jobs Across Europe and Central Asia”, World Bank, https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2026/09/28/trans-caspian-transport-corridor-investments-spur-growth-and-create-millions-jobs, (Accessed: 02.10.2026).
[ii] “Integration: World-Class Trade Logistics Along the Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor”, World Bank, https://www.worldbank.org/en/region/eca/publication/world-class-trade-logistics-along-trans-caspian-transport-corridor, (Accessed: 02.10.2026).
[iii] “Middle Corridor Investments Could Triple Trade, Add 2 Million Jobs by 2040, Report Finds”, The Astana Times, https://astanatimes.com/2026/10/middle-corridor-investments-could-triple-trade-add-2-million-jobs-by-2040-report-finds/, (Accessed: 02.10.2026).
[iv] “World Bank Approves $2 Billion Financing to Strengthen Türkiye’s Rail Connectivity Across the Istanbul Strait”, World Bank, https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2026/03/31/world-bank-approves-2-billion-financing-to-strengthen-turkiye-rail-connectivity-across-the-istanbul-strait, (Accessed: 02.10.2026).
