Latin America, widely regarded as the United States’ (US) backyard, has seen a resurgence of left-wing ideology in the post-Cold War era. Hugo Chavez, known for his left-wing ideology, won the elections in 1998, causing a domino effect throughout the region. Following that, socialist, social democratic, populist, or center-left parties took power in 14 Latin American countries. Left-wing leaders coming to power in the region’s largest states, such as Brazil and Argentina, has had a significant impact. The region’s left-wing developments and the resulting effect are referred to as the “Pink Tide.”
Since 2015, populist rhetoric and commodity price declines have pushed left-wing parties out of power. Furthermore, as a result of various military coups, contentious trials, and parliamentary decisions, left-wing leaders have lost their seats. However, due to the contentious policies of the right-wing parties that replaced them, the negative impact of the Covid-19, and the leaders’ criticized attitudes, left-wing movements have begun to regain ground in Latin American societies. This includes the democratic return to power of the Bolivian left, which was ousted from power in a military coup. As the Cold War process demonstrated, military coups and various claims cannot prevent left-wing administrations from coming into power. Thus began the second period of the left’s rise in Latin America.
Mexican elections were won by left-wing candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador in 2018. Mexico is significant because it is the neighbor of the US. After that, elections in Argentina, Bolivia, Panama, Peru, Chile, Honduras, and Colombia were won by left-wing leaders. In recent Brazilian elections, former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva emerged as the most powerful candidate against right-wing President Jair Bolsonaro. Lula received 48% of the vote in the elections, surpassing Bolsonaro, who received 43% of the vote.[1] The second round of elections, scheduled for October 30, 2022, is expected to be won by Lula. This situation indicates that right-wing administrations will remain in power in only a few small Latin American countries. In other words, the region will be governed by left-wing leaders in general.
Left-wing movements in Latin America have a direct impact on countries’ foreign policies. To begin with, it can be stated that left-wing leaders will adopt a more distant attitude toward the US or reduce the intensity of relations. Furthermore, Latin American countries will strengthen ties with one another as well as with Russia and China. Colombia-Venezuela relations, for example, began to normalize after left-wing leader Gustavo Petro was elected president. Also, relations between Bolivia’s left-wing government and China are improving by the day. While the US’s influence in Latin America has waned under left-wing administrations, Russia and Chin’s influence is growing. Between 2005 and 2021, China is known to have loaned more than $136 billion to Latin American countries.[2] In addition, countries such as Cuba, Venezuela, Panama, Costa Rica, Peru, Ecuador, Bolivia, Chile and Uruguay are a part of the Belt-Road Project.[3]
Argentina’s participation in the Belt-Road Project is the most significant recent development within the scope of the project. President of Argentina Alberto Fernandez signed a memorandum of understanding with Chinese President Xi Jinping to participate in the Belt-Road Project after competing in the Winter Olympics in Beijing in February 2022. There is also the possibility of the countries’ relationship deepening. Given the contentious nature of relations between Washington and Buenos Aires, China may view Argentina as a source of food and agriculture and invest in the country. Furthermore, the Beijing administration may be recognized as an actor capable of ensuring the processing of various mines, particularly lithium.[4]
Many projects in Latin America are being carried out or financed by China. These include ports, bridges, canals, highways, and railways built in countries ranging from Mexico to Cuba, Colombia to Brazil. This situation highlights China and the Belt-Road Project in the region’s reconstruction.
Furthermore, while China exports textiles, electronics, and chemicals to Latin America, it imports soy, crude oil, and mines from the region. These trade products strengthen the parties’ interdependence even further.[5]
China, on the other hand, is increasing its investments in countries with limited economic capacity but significant underground wealth, such as Bolivia because the country’s lithium wealth makes it a valuable player in the eyes of Beijing. Furthermore, Chile and Argentina have abundant lithium resources.[6]
Buenos Aires, on the other hand, condemned Moscow for the Russia-Ukraine War but opposed the imposition of economic sanctions on the country. Argentina explained that because it had not any economic relationship with Russia, the sanctions would harm both Buenos Aires’ and the world’s economies, and thus participation in the sanctions would be wrong.[7]
Due to the influence of left-wing leaders in Latin America, Russia, on the other hand, is receiving contradictory reactions from the region. This strengthens the hand of Russia. Because most Latin American countries opposed the US interventions in Afghanistan and Iraq. However, as Argentina has demonstrated, there is no clear stance against Russia. The primary reasons for this are ideological alliances and mutual interests in bilateral relations.
Left-wing ideology in Latin America criticizes the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) expansion and believes Moscow has the right to retaliate. The countries that advocate this are Bolivia, Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua. However, some countries, such as Colombia, support Ukraine. The most significant contradiction can be observed in state foreign policy. Because, despite their condemnation of Russia, countries such as Mexico approach sanctions with caution.[8]
In conclusion, as left-wing movements gain strength in Latin America, Russia and China’s social, political, and economic influence grows. Russia’s legacy from the Soviet Union, in particular, and China’s endeavors with the Belt-Road Project, strengthen both countries’ influence. This, in turn, reduces the influence of the US in the region.
[1] “Brazil’s Lula and Bolsonaro Face Run-off After Surprisingly Tight Result”, BBC, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-63112509, (Date of Accession: 06.10.2022).
[2] Devonshire-Ellis, Chris “China’s Belt&Road Initiative and South America”, Silk Road Briefing, https://www.silkroadbriefing.com/news/2019/05/29/chinas-belt-road-initiative-south-america/, (Date of Accession: 06.10.2022).
[3] Kevin P. Gallagher-Margaret Myersi “China-Latin America Finance Database”, The Dialogue, https://www.thedialogue.org/map_list /, (Date of Accession: 06.10.2022).
[4] Marc Lanteigne, “Argentina Joins China’s Belt and Road”, The Diplomat, https://thediplomat.com/2022/02/argentina-joins-chinas-belt-and-road /, (Date of Accession: 06.10.2022).
[5] Ben Miller “Beyond Commodities: China’s Economic Footprint”, Americas Quarterly, https://www.americasquarterly.org/fullwidthpage/china-latin-america-2-0-the-economic-footprint/, (Date of Accession: 06.10.2022).
[6] A. Daniel Peraza, “Lithium Monopoly in the Making? Beijing Expands in the Lithium Triangle”, Geopolitical Monitor, https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/lithium-monopoly-in-the-making-beijing-expands-in-the-lithium-triangle/, (Date of Accession: 06.10.2022).
[7] “President Fernández Questions Economic Sanctions Against Russia”, Buenos Aires Times, https://www.batimes.com.ar/news/economy/president-fernandez-questions-economic-sanctions-against-russia.phtml, (Date of Accession: 06.10.2022).
[8] J. Luis Rodriguez “Explaining Latin America’s Contradictory Reactions to the War in Ukraine”, War on the Rocks, https://warontherocks.com/2022/04/explaining-latin-americas-contradictory-reactions-to-the-war-in-ukraine/, (Date of Accession: 06.10.2022).
