On 13 October 2022, The European Sky Shield Initiative was approved by fourteen member states of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and Finland to strengthen air defence.[1] Meanwhile, a military agreement was also signed between Washington and Stockholm to protect Sweden’s borders.[2] As Finland and Sweden’s NATO membership processes have not yet been completed, Europe is trying to establish regional alliances within itself. However, Finnish President Sauli Niinistö assured that they would not form a regional bloc against Russia if they joined NATO.[3]
That said, European states want to have the Baltic Sea as NATO’s territorial sea to encircle Russia. Before, Finland and Estonia announced their readiness to integrate coastal missile defence systems that would allow them to close the Gulf of Finland to Russian warships if necessary.[4] Regardless, Finland has decided to avoid such polarization against Russia as it is not yet a member of NATO. Therefore, Helsinki voices that it is against political polarization. Scandinavia, the Baltics, and Eastern European countries strengthen their self-defence against attacks from Russia and increase their military-defence support to neighbouring states.
To respond to Russia after the Ukraine War, NATO members have begun to increase their military power through regional alliances. In this context, power centres such as “the Scandinavian Pole”, “the Baltic Pole”, “the Eastern European Pole” and “the Balkan Pole” are likely to emerge within the organization. This is because each region faces different security threats, and states seek to form defence alliances in line with their interests. This is called “Regional Security Complexes” in the discipline of international relations. According to this discipline, it is necessary to divide the world into different security zones to ensure global security. In this case, the security threats to each region will be different from each other. For example, while the primary security threat for Eastern Europe and the Baltics is irregular migration originating from Ukraine and the increasing Russian threat; factors such as increased Russian military activities in the Arctic will be the case for Scandinavia; and for the Balkans, irregular migration will stand out.
As the threats to European states grow and diversify, it becomes difficult for NATO to achieve common security interests. For example, the security needs of Sweden and Finland, which want to join the alliance, are also different. Finland needs membership more than Sweden because it is neighbouring Russia. Until it acceded to NATO, Helsinki decided to receive air defence support from NATO countries. Sweden, on the other hand, is focused on cooperating with NATO on air surveillance capabilities in the Arctic as it is advanced in this field.
In this sense, NATO’s perspective on Sweden and Finland is distinctive too in terms of its own security needs. The alliance, which wants to benefit from the capabilities of the Swedish Army to observe Russian military activities in the Arctic, also aims to support Finland’s air defence. To cope with the changing security threats, NATO aims to solve problems through task sharing within member states. Recently, Europe is turning to alternative collaborations to strengthen its defence. Thus, the risk of polarization increases within NATO.
On the other hand, Russia and China mention the dangers of Western political polarization and emphasize the importance of multipolarity in Asia. According to this concept, establishing a collective defence organization to ensure the security of all states in Asia means forming a block against the West. The bigger risk of this is that it would push Asian states to divide or polarize.
One of the most discussed issues today is the benefits and disadvantages of the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). For example, despite the request of Armenia, Russia and Kazakhstan refused to send troops to Armenia within the scope of the CSTO. This is a clear indication that the CSTO member states do not have a common security interest. This situation applies to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) as well. It cannot be said that Pakistan and India share a common security interest within the scope of the SCO, although they are members of the organization. When countries such as Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan and Afghanistan are included, it can be seen that it is quite difficult for Asian states to share common security interests.
Contrary to the multipolarity approach in Asia, Western political polarization extends to Asia and the Indo-Pacific. China argues that initiatives such as AUKUS, QUAD, Partners in the Blue Pacific, and the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework are by-products of the US’ polarization politics and point out its risks. While NATO turns to polarization within itself, it also establishes new blocs in Asia. According to Russia and China, this policy is unlikely to succeed. Therefore, both Moscow and Beijing are striving to establish multipolarity rather than creating a new pole in Asia.
If Asian states, especially Russia and China, come together around common security interests, this will create a block against the West. It is advantageous for European countries to share similar or overlapping security interests, even if these are not common interests. However, NATO members turn to compete with each other and divide within the alliance when their interests do not match. Thus, Asia’s concept of multipolarity and NATO’s political polarization even out one another. The actual risk posed by this situation is that “countries that advocate multipolarity” rise as a block against the West without noticing it.
[1] “NATO Üyesi 14 Ülke ile Finlandiya ‘Avrupa Sema Kalkanı’ İçin Anlaştı”, AA, https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/dunya/nato-uyesi-14-ulke-ile-finlandiya-avrupa-sema-kalkani-icin-anlasti/2710414, (Date of Accession: 18.10.2022).
[2] “Sweden, US Sign New Military Cooperation Agreement–Reports”, Urdu Point, https://www.urdupoint.com/en/world/sweden-us-sign-new-military-cooperation-agre-1579389.html, (Date of Accession: 18.10.2022).
[3] “Finland Rejects NATO’s Ambitions of Creating A NATO Sea Against Russia”, TFI Global News, https://tfiglobalnews.com/2022/10/11/finland-rejects-natos-ambitions-of-creating-a-nato-sea-against-russia/, (Date of Accession: 18.10.2022).
[4] Ibid.
