The Russia-Ukraine War had a profound impact on the energy balance and shaped the energy policies of many countries. In particular, the role of energy in European countries’ relations with Russia has necessitated urgent and new policies. At this point, Western actors turned to the energy-rich countries of Central Asia for new alternatives. In the last year, both bilateral dialogues and relations within the European Union (EU) have gained momentum.
Accordingly, European interest in Kazakhstan, one of the most prominent countries in Central Asia with its energy resources, has intensified. Recently, ties between Kazakhstan and the EU have been deepening and strengthening. Areas of cooperation are diversifying and increasing. Various developments are also taking place in the context of energy relations.
On 24 May 2023, Kazakh oil pipeline operator KazTrransOil announced that Kazakhstan plans to transport 100,000 tons of oil to Germany via Russia’s Druzhba Pipeline. This transaction is part of a plan announced in early 2023 to deliver 300,000 tons of oil to Germany.[1] Therefore, it is seen that progress has been made gradually within the framework of the plan.
This is more than the 90,000 tons of Kazakh crude oil delivered to Germany via Druzhba in February-April 2023. In February 2023, KazTransOil delivered 20,000 tons of crude oil to Germany via Druzhba. In April of the same year, it planned to deliver 100,000 tons of crude oil, but delivered only 50,000 tons.[2]
With the February 2023 procurement, the process of replacing Russian supplies for German refineries has begun. The Druzhba Line is of critical importance in this sense. The EU imposes various sanctions against Russia. As of December 5, 2022, it has promised to stop buying Russian oil by sea. However, the Druzhba Pipeline is exempt from sanctions.[3]
Another factor that made this line important and strategic was the fact that Russia’s permission was required for the oil to go to Germany, which Moscow seems to have allowed. The Druzhba line, one of the largest crude oil pipeline networks in the world, aims to increase and develop oil export agreements. At this point, Astana could make exports to the German market one of its main priorities.
Within the framework of the energy crisis that started due to the Russia-Ukraine War, Kazakhstan has gained an important opportunity in the face of the EU, which is trying to find an alternative to Russian energy resources. In addition to its Westernization policy steps, Astana is also increasing its weight in Europe through energy cooperation. This means that the establishment of new partnerships and developments in the energy sector in particular will be the determining factor in bilateral relations in the future.
The increase in visits from EU countries to Kazakhstan and the new agreements and negotiations on energy cooperation have also increased the importance of Astana in international politics. For example, the visit of German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan in October 2022 with a delegation of experts in the energy and infrastructure sectors can be interpreted as a very important development in this regard.[4]
On May 15, 2023, Kazakhstan’s Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Murat Nurtleu met with EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Joseph Borrell.[5] They discussed steps to advance cooperation, particularly in the areas of energy, transport and logistics, digitalization, civil aviation, mining and mineral exploitation. In 2022, EU investments in Kazakhstan increased by 23%, reaching 12.5 billion dollars.[6]
However, it is seen that Kazakhstan will be a key actor for Europe not only in oil but also in green energy. Kazakhstan and the UK are working jointly on rare earth elements. There is also a project to establish an institute for energy innovation in Almaty. As the world’s largest uranium producer, Kazakhstan is attractive in many ways. Europe, which is taking steps to diversify its rare earth chains, also tends to develop ties with Kazakhstan.[7]
In November 2022, the EU and Kazakhstan signed a strategic partnership on green hydrogen and feedstocks. The agreement, which aims to ensure the development of a secure and sustainable supply of raw and refined materials, was signed by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Kazakh Prime Minister Alikhan Smailov.[8] The EU attaches great importance to its relations with Kazakhstan in line with its plans for green and clean energy targets. Astana seems to be quite satisfied with the current situation and is keen to develop partnerships.
It is understood that energy relations will be a key factor in the relations between Kazakhstan and European countries. Oil supply agreements with Germany are particularly important in this regard. There are also green energy-based cooperations with the UK. Institutionally, EU-Kazakhstan relations are on the rise. Increases in trade and investment are also noteworthy. Interest-based cooperation between the parties is expected to develop further. As the UK’s primary trading partner in the region, Kazakhstan is likely to deepen its partnerships with Germany on oil, with France on investment and trade, and with the EU in multilateral cooperation.
In conclusion, Kazakhstan is consolidating its strategic position in the international arena with its domestic reforms and democratic development process as well as its energy and investment-based cooperation in foreign policy. The oil exchange on the Berlin-Astana line and the economic-centered dialogues with other European partners provide clues to future processes. In this sense, it can be said that the Russian-Ukrainian War has provided Kazakhstan with prestige and the advantage of developing economic cooperation. European countries have also welcomed Kazakhstan’s initiatives to balance Russia’s dominance in the energy sector. Therefore, it can be said that a relationship dynamic based on mutual interest and gain has emerged and cooperation opportunities will be diversified to improve relations by maintaining this balance. It is also possible to state that Europe will support Astana’s initiatives in different fields.
[1] “Kazakhstan Sends First Batch of Oil to Germany via Druzhba Pipeline”, The Astana Times, https://astanatimes.com/2023/02/kazakhstan-sends-first-batch-of-oil-to-germany-via-druzhba-pipeline/, (Date of Accession: 25.05.2023).
[2] “Kazakhstan Plans to Send 100,000 Tonnes of Crude to Germany via Druzhba Pipeline in May 2023”, Reuters, https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/kazakhstan-plans-to-send-100000-tonnes-of-crude-to-germany-via-druzhba-pipeline-in-may, (Date of Accession: 25.05.2023).
[3] “UPDATE 1-Kazakhstan to Send 100,000 T of Crude to Germany via Druzhba in May”, Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/article/kazakhstan-oil-exports-idUSL1N37L1P2, (Date of Accession: 25.05.2023).
[4] “Kazakhstan’s Druzhba Prospects: Central Asian Oil to Supply Europe?”, The Diplomat, https://thediplomat.com/2023/04/kazakhstans-druzhba-prospects-central-asian-oil-to-supply-europe/, (Date of Accession: 25.05.2023).
[5] “EU HR Borrell meets Minister of Foreign Affairs of Kazakhstan”, Newsroom, https://newsroom.consilium.europa.eu/events/20230515-eu-hr-borrell-meets-minister-of-foreign-affairs-of-kazakhstan, (Date of Accession: 25.05.2023).
[6] “Kazakhstan and EU Take Steps to Reinforce Partnership”, The Astana Times, https://astanatimes.com/2023/05/kazakhstan-and-eu-take-steps-to-reinforce-partnership/, (Date of Accession: 25.05.2023).
[7] “Kazakhstan Could be Key to Europe’s Energy Transition”, Emerging Europe, https://emerging-europe.com/news/kazakhstan-could-be-key-to-europes-energy-transition/, (Date of Accession: 25.05.2023).
[8] “EU Signs ‘Strategic Partnership’ with Kazakhstan on Green Hydrogen, Raw Materials”, Euractiv, https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy/news/eu-signs-strategic-partnership-with-kazakhstan-on-green-hydrogen-raw-materials/, (Date of Accession: 25.05.2023).
