Donald Trump returned to power after a four-year hiatus by winning the American presidential elections held on November 5. Trump’s second presidential victory, unlike his first, took place in an international environment dominated by geopolitical turbulence and uncertainty.
The question of how Trump would affect the course of the international environment, which has a fragile foundation, was one of the main agenda items of the election. Because Trump and his team were making serious criticisms of Biden’s foreign policy and talking about the potential of these policies to lead to a major war. During his election campaign, Trump emphasized “stopping the war” in his foreign policy discourses. Trump promised to end the war in Ukraine and the chaos in the Middle East, and emphasized that he would “prevent World War III” within this framework.
The November 5 American elections were strategically important, considering the fragile international environment. In particular, how Trump would organize his relations with China, Russia and Europe was the main focus of the discussions. In this context, the American elections were closely followed by the Russian press. In general, the Russian press covered Trump’s victory based on the motto of ending the war emphasized in the election campaign.
One of Russia’s leading publications, Rossiyskaya Gazeta, has underlined that Trump has given extensive space to the Ukraine issue in his election campaign. The article, written by Aleksandr Gasyuk and Igor Dunayevskiy, focuses on Trump’s campaign rhetoric. The newspaper, which draws attention to Trump’s intense criticism of the Biden administration regarding Ukraine, includes Trump’s claim that Biden does not have the capacity to take action to resolve the Ukraine issue. The newspaper sought the views of one of Russia’s leading experts, Fedor Lukyanov. According to Lukyanov; “The outcome of the American election will not change the world. Long-term problems and processes will not end. However, this election can be considered an important indicator of long-term change.”[1]
The analysis published in Izvesiya by Igor Karamzin focuses on what Trump’s victory means for Russia and Ukraine. The article mentions that during the election campaign, Trump repeatedly stated that he would end the conflict in Ukraine even before the inauguration ceremony on January 20, 2025. Denis Denisov, one of the experts consulted in the article, commented that Trump made various statements regarding the conflict in Ukraine during his election campaign, but that he did not think that Washington’s policy would actually change much. In this context, he emphasized that Ukraine would continue to receive weapons and money. Denisov believes that he does not expect real negotiation proposals that would benefit Russia and that the conflict will therefore continue.[2]
The analysis published on November 7 in Interfax included interviews conducted by the publication’s special correspondent Vyecheslav Terehov with two important experts. One of the experts, Viktoriya Juravleva, emphasized that she does not expect a radical change in the political and economic dimensions of Russian-American relations. According to Juravleva, there can be only one change in terms of bilateral relations: “Trump, with the support of Republicans in Congress, can stop providing resources to Ukraine. Without American support, Ukraine’s military resources are already very low, and in this case, it would be possible to move on to some negotiations.” Another expert, Alexei Arbatov, focused on the issue of nuclear disarmament. Arbatov emphasized that “Trump may even withdraw from the suspended New START Treaty completely. Arbatov also predicts that the emphasis on the militarization of space and the strengthening of cyber warfare potential will increase during Trump’s second term as president.”[3]
TASS refers to Trump’s “peace through strength” rhetoric, which he repeatedly voiced during his election campaign. It emphasizes that Trump, unlike the Biden administration, has declared that he will not fuel wars in the world.
The news published in TASS on November 20 is quite remarkable. According to the TASS report; Trump may lift the sanctions against Russia once the conflict in Ukraine is over. According to a representative from Trump’s transition team; the Trump administration will use a “mix of sticks and carrots” method when interacting with Russia regarding the Ukraine Crisis. However, the representative states that the same method will be applied to Ukraine. Therefore, he emphasizes that this method will not be focused solely on Russia and will not be “unilateral.”[4]
Ria Novosti has included the views of Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov. Peskov emphasizes that they are cautious about Trump’s second term as president. According to Peskov, “It would be ‘political myopia’ to make a prejudice about Trump’s possible policy towards Russia, and in this context, the actions of the new administration after it takes office will be examined.”[5]
The perspectives of the conflicts in Ukraine are prominent in the approaches of Russia’s liberal-leaning publications Kommersant and Vedomosty to Trump’s policies. Kommersant, reporting on the thoughts at the meeting of the Expert Institute for Social Research (EISI), writes that Trump is not a pro-Russian politician and therefore an American patriot from whom Russia should not expect “gifts.” The participants of the meeting at the research center are also skeptical about the promises of the future US president to resolve the conflict in Ukraine. According to the information in Kommersant, although Russian officials are still cautious on this issue, they also have some positive expectations.[6]
Vedomosty emphasizes that Russia is cautious about Trump’s election victory. The article, written by Nurlan Gasimov and Vladimir Kulagin, includes the views of Sergey Kislitsyin. According to Kislitsyin, “it is likely that Ukrainian sponsorship will decrease, and this is due to the US’s position that it does not spend its federal budget on third parties.” Kislitsyin emphasizes that Ukraine is a convenient tool for keeping the Europeans under control under the pretext of the “Russian threat.”[7] In general, news and analysis in the Russian press approach Trump’s relations with Russia with caution. However, it is possible to say that there is also an optimistic expectation regarding the solution of the Ukraine issue. This expectation is materialized in the context of harmonizing Russia’s national interests with Trump’s pragmatic perspective.
[1] “Chto rezulaty viborov v SSA oznachayut dlya Rossiyii”, Rossiyskaya Gazeta, 06.11.2024, https://rg.ru/2024/11/06/tramp-pobezhdaet-v-amerike.html, (Access Date: 20.11.2024).
[2] “Vtoroye prishestviye: chto znachit pobeda Trampa dlya Rossiyii i Ukrayini”, Izvesiya, 06.11.2024, https://iz.ru/1786384/igor-karmazin/vtoroe-prishestvie-chto-znachit-pobeda-trampa-dlia-rossii- i-ukrainy, (Access Date: 20.11.2024).
[3] “Pobeda Barter: Nas jdut ‘kacheli’ v mirovoypolitike”, Interfax, 07.11.2024, https://www.interfax.ru/russia/993625, (Access Date: 20.11.2024).
[4] “TASS: Tramp mojet snyat santtsyii s RF pri zaversheniyii konflikta na Ukraine”, TASS, 20.11.2024, https://tass.ru/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/22448403, (Access Date: 20.11.2024).
[5] “Peskov prizeval ne obolshatsya naschet budusheypolitiki Trumpa”, Ria Novosti, 17.11.2024, https://ria.ru/20241117/peskov-1984251844.html, (Access Date: 20.11.2024).
[6] “Takoy Tramp nam ne nujen”, Kommersant, 15.11.2024, https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/7299486?from=glavnoe_0, (Access Date: 20.11.2024).
[7] “Kak pobeda Trampa povliyayet na osnovniye konflikti v mire”, Vedomosty, 07.11.2024, https://www.vedomosti.ru/politics/articles/2024/11/07/1073421-kak-pobeda-trampa-povliyaet-na- konflikti-v-mire, (Access Date: 20.11.2024).
