For years, Turkey has collaborated with Somalia in areas like security and economics due to intersecting national interests. The civil war in Somalia between 1986 and 1992,[i] the weakening of the central government after the war, the rise of Al-Shabaab terrorism in rural areas, and the “Somaliland Problem” have slowed down and, in some cases, halted economic developments in the country.
Before assessing the investment profile of the country, it is essential to thoroughly analyze the impact of past political and military crises and deeply examine the country’s risk premium. First and foremost, cooperation in the energy sector, including Turkey’s licensing within maritime jurisdiction boundaries and other gains, is crucial. Turkey’s cooperation with Somalia strengthened at the level of humanitarian-public aid in 2011 and quickly transformed into a strategic relationship. Turkey’s assistance in economic and infrastructure areas gradually extended into the military sector as well.[ii]
Turkey, which launched the Africa Initiative in 2010, has achieved significant success, particularly in “Cultural Diplomacy,” led by the “Turkish Cooperation and Coordination Agency (TİKA).” Many non-governmental organizations from Turkey have directly participated in development and aid projects in Africa. Global brands like Turkish Airlines organized fundraising campaigns for Somalia. As a result of Turkey’s efforts, Somalia quickly gained more visibility on the international stage and made its voice heard. In 2014, the Mogadishu Port and Airport were reopened, began to be operated by Turkish companies, and Somalia’s economic situation rapidly improved compared to the previous decade.
In this process, with the continued presence of the Al-Shabaab terrorist organization, Turkey began to take measures in this regard and started providing defense support to Somalia. In this context, Turkey assumed responsibility for training the Somali National Army alongside other stakeholders like the European Union and the United States. In 2017, a military base was established in Mogadishu, where the commando units of the Somali Army, known as the Gorgor Brigades, were trained.
As a result of negotiations conducted between November 2023 and January 2024, Turkey agreed to train and equip Somalia’s naval forces and provide patrol services along the country’s 3,333 km coastline. Turkey’s defense industry has become a globally recognized key element, and African countries are on the path to becoming the primary market for the Turkish defense industry.[iii]
Looking at the economic data, in 2023, Turkey ranked 3rd in Somalia’s imports, following China and India.[iv] However, it is important to note that Turkey is not the only player in the energy sector in the region. In the 1950s, international oil companies like Chevron, Eni, ExxonMobil, and Shell began research in Somalia, but these efforts were halted as the country was drawn into civil war. Recently, U.S.-based Coastline Exploration obtained permission from the Somali federal government in 2022 to conduct research in seven offshore blocks. Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has supported agreements made with the American company and announced that the country is open to international companies. President Mohamud emphasized that maximizing the benefits from oil and natural gas resources is in the country’s interest.[v]
Regarding the recent energy agreement with Turkey, Somali Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources Abdirizak Omar Mohamed stated that the agreement defines a broad framework of cooperation and is based on bilateral understanding regarding the exploration and extraction of hydrocarbon reserves. The agreement targets hydrocarbon reserves in Somalia’s exclusive economic zone and unexplored land areas. The minister noted that information on how the revenues from investments would be shared would not be disclosed to the public at this stage, emphasizing that details would become clear during the Production Sharing Agreement (PSA) phase.
Turkish Minister of Energy Alparslan Bayraktar, expressing that the agreement would provide more benefits to the Somali Government and people, said, “With this agreement, we will work together to bring Somalia’s resources to the Somali people.” Additionally, Bayraktar stated that Turkey aims to strengthen its presence in the Horn of Africa through new collaborations in the energy sector.
In 2020, then-President of Somalia Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo signed the Somali Petroleum Law. The law aims to maximize Somalia’s oil resources and establish a solid governance framework.[vi] A year before this law, it was announced that 15 blocks, covering an area of 75,000 square kilometers off the coast of Somalia, with an estimated 30 billion barrels of oil reserves, would be opened to exploration and drilling activities by international energy companies. All of these 15 blocks are located on Somalia’s southern-facing coast.[vii]
In conclusion, Turkey will begin exploring hydrocarbon resources in three blocks off the coast of Somalia. This can be considered a significant success in energy diplomacy. Turkey’s support to Somalia in combating terrorism, along with collaborations in energy and other areas, may indicate deepening geopolitical competition in East Africa. The period after 2025 will need to be closely monitored, and the gains reassessed, as seismic surveys are known to be costly technical operations.[viii] In the areas where Turkey will operate, costs are increasing due to depths ranging from 2,000 to 3,000 meters. For example, the work carried out in the Sakarya Gas Field, given its proximity to the homeland and the depth of 2,117 meters, is among the challenges we have experienced.[ix] Transforming the Turkish oil and gas mission into areas of implementation is a valuable investment in terms of testing our technical capabilities and accumulating experience. The most crucial issue here will be signing the production sharing agreement (PSA) following the potential discovery of reserves.
[i] “Somalia Civil War”, Wikipedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Somali_Civil_War, (Accessed: 12.08.2024)
[ii] “Red Sea politics: Why Turkey is helping Somalia defend its waters.”, The EastAfrican, https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/news/east-africa/why-turkey-is-helping-somalia-defend-its-waters-4540544, (Accessed: 12.08.2024)
[iii] “Somalia-Türkiye maritime security partnership faces stormy waters.”, Institute For Security Studies, https://issafrica.org/iss-today/somalia-tuerkiye-maritime-security-partnership-faces-stormy-waters, (Accessed: 12.08.2024)
[iv] “SOMALİ ÜLKE PROFİLİ”, T.C. Ticaret Bakanlığı Uluslararası Anlaşmalar ve Avrupa Birliği Genel Müdürlüğü, https://ticaret.gov.tr/data/5b885d7baf23be7c5c10c692/Somali%20%c3%9clke%20Profili%202024.pdf, (Erişim Tarihi: 12.08.2024).
[v] “Turkey to drill oil off Somali coast starting in 2025.”, The EastAfrica, https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/news/east-africa/turkey-to-start-drilling-oil-off-somali-coast-in-2025-4600254#google_vignette, (Accessed: 12.08.2024).
[vi] “Federal Government of Somalia Signs Oil and Gas Cooperation Deal with Türkiye.”, Somali Petroleum Authority, https://hbs.gov.so/federal-government-of-somalia-signs-oil-and-gas-cooperation-deal-with-turkiye/, (Accessed: 12.08.2024).
[vii] “Somali’de petrol rezervi ne kadar? Erdoğan’ın ‘Teklif geldi’ açıklamasına Somali Petrol Bakanı ne diyor?”, BBC News Türkçe, https://www.bbc.com/turkce/haberler-dunya-51210933, (Erişim Tarihi: 12.08.2024).
[viii] “Türkiye Somali’de Petrol ve Doğal Gaz Arayacak.”, T.C. Enerji ve Tabii Kaynaklar Bakanlığı, https://enerji.gov.tr/haber-detay?id=21332, (Accessed: 12.08.2024).
[ix] “Sakarya Gaz Sahası Geliştirme Projesi”, Türkiye Petrolleri, https://tp-otc.com/surdurulebilirlik/sakarya-gaz-sahasi-hakkinda/, (Accessed: 12.08.2024).
