Russia’s military intervention in Ukraine on February 23, 2022 generated a range of reactions from countries throughout the world. Many governments and international organizations, particularly European countries, the United States of America (USA), and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), supported Ukraine in its conflict with Russia. Although the states that came together against Russia did not send their own soldiers to fight in Ukraine, both military equipment aid and economic sanctions against Russia had a compelling effect on Moscow. In addition to the reaction of the West, the eyes of the international public have been drawn to the approach of China, one of Russia’s main allies, to the issue in the context of their search for a multipolar world.
As is well known, Sino-Russian ties improved after the Cold War ended, and several agreements were reached between the two nations in the commercial, military, and diplomatic spheres. China and Russia, who have frequently clashed and experienced border wars throughout history, have decided to work together to oppose the Atlantic-centered unipolar system. The fact that the national strengths of the parties covered their weaknesses formed the basic dynamic of this relationship. For instance, the energy demand and geographical route required by China’s export-based economic expansion, which began in the 1980s, had been assumed to be easy to satisfy by Russia. Similarly, the investment necessary for Russia’s economy has become an opportunity for China’s stockpiled foreign exchange to be converted into investment. These two Asian powers have created a solid collaboration for their primary purposes, in opposition to American hegemony.
The relationship between Russia and China has been put to the test at times. The process that began with Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014 resulted in the imposition of numerous economic sanctions by Europe and the United States. While the serious decline in the ruble and the recession in the economy as a result of the sanctions forced Moscow; China has decided to invest more in this country and has relatively reduced the effect of Western sanctions. Sanctions imposed by Europe and the United States both failed to prevent the annexation of Crimea and strengthened Russia’s relationship with China. According to some analysts, the West’s approach was a strategic mistake. In summary, the Beijing-Moscow axis emerged stronger from the crisis arising from Crimea’s annexation.
The second crisis, in which the relations between Russia and China were severely tested, are the developments originating from Russia and based on Ukraine, as in 2014. Russia, which has been making a military build-up on the Ukrainian border for a while, has signaled that it will resolve the issue by military means. Anticipating that this operation would be criticized by the public, Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Chinese President Xi Jinping during the Beijing Olympics and created the image that he had received Beijing’s assistance.
Xi, on the other side, welcomed the visits because some nations had protested the Olympics. During this visit, Russia and China officially released a joint statement. The aforementioned declaration stressed that the two nations’ solidarity and cooperation deepened, and the discourse of unity against NATO and the USA came to the fore in the text.
Confirming that its relations with Russia had reached a strategic level before the intervention, China made statements explaining its support to Russia during and after the intervention. However, rather than being an outright Russian supporter, Beijing’s position on the occupation has evolved within the context of a perspective that calls for peace and appeals to all parties to solve the problem.
It should be highlighted that in international relations, states act in their own self-interest. With this in mind, China, on the one hand, seeks not to leave its ally Russia alone in the international arena; on the other hand, it avoids harsh statements that would trigger a reaction from international public opinion. In short, China is making statements of support with a strategy that will protect itself from the sanctions that Russia is exposed to. Furthermore, Beijing’s statements in favor of Moscow reflect its own agenda.
In a meeting with German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock on February 26, 2022, by saying that Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi the Cold War is finished and NATO should reconsider its role and duties, reaffirming this stance. While Beijing made a statement in favor of Moscow; it mainly emphasized the limitation of NATO and the world evolving into a multipolar structure.[1] On the same day, Wang issued a five-point statement outlining China’s position on the current Ukraine crisis, with the goal of striking a balance between Russia and the opposing side. Wang supports Ukraine’s territorial integrity in this statement while emphasizing that Russia has valid reasons.[2]
The most noteworthy statement made by the Beijing government, which expresses its displeasure with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and clues at its future policy, was delivered on February 28, 2022, during the regular press conference of the Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Wang Wenbin. Because the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs’ spokesman made the following comments:[3]
“The sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries should be respected and upheld, and the purposes and principles of the UN Charter should be jointly upheld. This is a principle China always follows and a basic norm governing international relations that all countries should adhere to. At the same time, China believes that one country’s security cannot be at the expense of others’ security; still less should one country flagrantly undermine others’ sovereignty and security for its own absolute military advantage and absolute security. All countries’ legitimate security concerns should be respected… As I said just now, China will continue to develop the friendly cooperative relationship with Ukraine based on mutual respect and non-interference.”
On the same day, the statement of the Chinese Foreign Minister, who spoke At the Meeting in Commemoration of the 50th Anniversary of the Shanghai Communiqué, which is considered the beginning of China-US relations, should also be carefully noted:[4]
“China is open to U.S. participation in the Belt and Road Initiative and the Global Development Initiative. We are also ready to consider coordinating with the Build Back Better World initiative of the United States to provide more quality public goods for the world.”
In addition to the statements of China’s high-level state officials, some academicians at China’s important universities published a statement supporting the Ukrainian people and criticizing Russia’s military operation.[5] Moreover, People’s Daily, the official newspaper of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China shared news of the Ministry of Health of Ukraine including “Ukraine’s health ministry said that 352 civilians, including 14 children, had been killed since the beginning of Russia’s military operations in the country. It also said that 1,684 people, including 116 children, had been wounded.” contrary to Russian rhetoric. These example show us the flexibility of Chinese foreign policy in the current situation and the depth of the Russian-Chinese divergence.
Economic embargoes are viewed as the most legitimate basis for China’s split from Russia. First and foremost, China is deeply integrated into the global economy. As a result, it is a reality that it will be more affected than Russia in the event of a potential embargo against China. Because exports are the major driver of the Chinese economy, and it need foreign markets. An embargo on its economy and commerce will have a direct impact on China. Given the lack of economic resources such as oil and natural gas, taking a neutral posture is the most logical alternative for Beijing.
When comparing the situation before and after Russia’s intervention, it is possible to conclude that China differs from Russia in its geopolitical system of thought. Russia is recognized as a disrupting power, whereas China is known as a constructive power in international relations. In other words, while Moscow does not care about going out of the round table; Beijing wants to sit in a strong position at the international relations table. For this reason, the intervention in Ukraine is an operation that China should oppose. Because, China has based its foreign policy on “non-interference in the internal affairs of countries and respect for their territorial integrity”. However, a clear opposition to Moscow by China will harm Russia, with which it is an ally, in order to break the hegemony of the Atlantic alliance. It is possible to explain this situation as “China’s Russia Paradox”.
Indicators such as the next steps in the current scenario and the path of the conflict will play a significant role in defining the direction of China-Russia ties. If Russia does not get what it wants in Ukraine, it is inevitable that Moscow will become more dependent on China. The energy embargo imposed on Russia, in particular, will allow China to deliver energy at a lower cost than Russia. As a result, China believes that the current status quo should be maintained for a length of time. Because the force opposing Russia (Europe-USA) is a geopolitical rival of China, and it is obvious that a conflict in which two rivals lose power will strengthen China even more. At this point, it is a vital question to what extent the USA, which wants to surround China in the Indo-Pacific, will push Russia into China?
If Russia changes the direction of the battle and establishes dominance in the areas it seeks, Sino-Russian ties may become turbulent. Because the Moscow administration, which has expanded its area of influence to the west, will now turn its attention to the east. At this point, Russia’s approach to China will be a factor that will affect the negotiations on the removal of the Western sanctions against Russia. Even if not stated clearly, Russia’s negative or vengeful attitude toward China (through Central Asia-South Asia-Arctic-and-so-on) will be directly proportionate to the easing of sanctions. Without a question, the Ukraine Crisis reflects an international order that did not settle after the Cold War. Depending on how the situation develops, ties along the Beijing-Moscow axis may take on a new character.
[1] “Wang Yi Speaks with German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock on the Phone”, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the People’s Republic of China, https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/zxxx_662805/202202/t20220227_10645996.html, (Date of Accession: 28.02.2022).
[2] “Wang Yi Expounds China’s Five-Point Position on the Current Ukraine Issue”, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the People’s Republic of China, https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/zxxx_662805/202202/t20220226_10645855.html, (Date of Accession: 28.02.2022).
[3] “Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Wang Wenbin’s Regular Press Conference on February 28, 2022”, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the People’s Republic of China, https://www.mfa.gov.cn/eng/xwfw_665399/s2510_665401/202202/t20220228_10646378.html, (Date of Accession: 28.02.2022).
[4] “Drawing Wisdom from History to Light up the Road Ahead”, Embassy of the People’s Republic of China in the United States of America, http://www.china-embassy.org/eng/zgyw/202202/t20220228_10646243.htm, (Date of Accession: 28.02.2022).
[5] “PRC Profs: Our Attitude Towards Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine”, David Cowhig’s Translation Blog, https://gaodawei.wordpress.com/2022/02/26/2022-prc-profs-our-attitude-towards-russias-invasion-of-ukraine/, (Date of Accession: 28.02.2022).
