Qin Gang, who was elected as a member of the Central Committee at the 20th Congress of the Communist Party of China on December 31, 2022, was appointed as the Minister of Foreign Affairs of China. This raises the question, “What is the future of Chinese foreign policy?”. Qin, who served as the Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs of China from 2017-2021,[1] became the Chinese Ambassador to Washington in 2021. Although Qin has focused on China’s relations with the United Kingdom and the European Union (EU) in his career, he has also made significant contributions to relations with the United States (US).[2] For this reason, it can be stated that the Beijing administration is preparing to initiate a period of restoration in its relations with the West through Qin’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
China is not expected to repair its relations with the West, but to escalate competition, by many experts who discuss their future visions for the international system. Because the Beijing administration, together with Russia, expresses its demand for a multipolar world through structures such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and the BRICS. But as the quest for multipolarity has increased competition in Sino-Western relations, it has become a losing game for both sides. This is because the trade wars that started under former US President Donald Trump brought about a process in which the geopolitical encirclement against China expanded and diplomatic pressure increased through QUAD and AUKUS with the Joe Biden administration.
In particular, the visit of Nancy Pelosi, the Speaker of the US House of Representatives, to Taiwan on August 2, 2022, and the US military exercises with India on the border of the Tibetan region led the Washington administration to convey the message that it was aware of China’s soft underbelly by playing on China’s nerve endings. Therefore, the process has started to evolve into a troubling situation for China, which aspires to dominate the corridors and become the new hegemonic power through the Belt and Road Project.
The US, on the other hand, is suffering serious economic losses due to its interdependence with China and the fact that China is in a sense the world’s production workshop. In other words, in international politics where win-win based relations are preferred, the relations between Washington and Beijing are evolving into a lose-lose logic day by day. However, states are pragmatic and therefore realist structures that prioritize their own national interests.
It can be stated that the Russian-Ukrainian War was a turning point in terms of the transition to pragmatism. Because even though Beijing seems to be on the side of Moscow, it is uncomfortable with the prolongation of the war. President of China Xi Jinping himself conveyed this to his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, at the SCO Leaders’ Summit held in the ancient city of Uzbekistan, Samarkand on September 15-16, 2022. As a matter of fact, Russia has not received the support it expected from China even during the war. In fact, the West’s expectations of China have also increased as a result of the war. As a matter of fact, it is stated that Beijing can persuade the Moscow administration to end the war. In this context, two important events should be mentioned. The visit of Chancellor of Germany Olaf Scholz to Beijing on November 4, 2022 is very significant. Because it is stated that Scholz asked Xi to mediate in the Russia-Ukraine War during his Beijing visit.[3]
In fact, China’s statements emphasizing international law and territorial integrity reveal a stance that demands an end to the war rather than a positioning that supports Russia’s victory in the war.
The second critical development was the meeting between Biden and Xi on the occasion of the G20 Summit in November 2022. The statements made by the two leaders regarding nuclear proliferation and the threat of using nuclear weapons during the meeting in question showed Beijing’s dissatisfaction with the rhetoric used by Moscow at one point. It is also important that Biden emphasized areas of cooperation despite differences at the summit.[4]
These statements have shown that both China and the United States do not want the rivalry between them to deepen. In this sense, it can be argued that the parties negotiated even at the point of transition to a controlled bipolarity. However, the search between the parties shows an image that is far from the “multipolarity” approach envisaged by Russia. At this point, it can be said that for Russia, “Pin-Pong Diplomacy” is repeating itself and Moscow is once again at risk of becoming isolated by relying on Beijing. Because even if the system is to change, China does not want to do it through the use of force like Russia. On the contrary, it is in an effort to develop a win-win-based relationship that focuses on cooperation. Recent messages confirm this. The increased risk of hot confrontation with the Taiwan Crisis has forced Beijing, which has stated that it wants to build bridges of cooperation, not blocs, to make new openings in its relations with the West.
As can be expected, the main ally of the USA in China policy is the UK, which is also included in AUKUS. Therefore, the appointment of Qin as China’s Foreign Minister, who served as Ambassador to the US and is also familiar with the UK, can be seen as a concrete outcome of Beijing’s efforts to restore its relations with the West. Therefore, it is foreseeable that China will take steps to further distance itself from Russia and de-escalate its relations with the West in the coming period.
As a result, China recognizes that it will suffer if rivalry takes center stage in its relations with the West, and especially with the United States. Of course, it is obvious that competition will reflect negatively on the USA and its Western allies due to interdependence. Therefore, both sides are looking for a consensual approach that emphasizes areas where they can cooperate. This is also the reason why Qin became China’s Foreign Minister.
[1] The Us-China Business Council, https://www.uschina.org/about/bio/ambassador-qin-gang, (Date of Accession: 31.12.2022).
[2] Ibid.
[3] Cenk Tamer, “Can Germany Be a “Driving Force” on Europe’s China Strategy?”, ANKASAM, https://www.ankasam.org/can-germany-be-a-driving-force-on-europes-china-strategy/?lang=en, (Date of Accession: 31.12.2022).
[4] Mehmet Seyfettin Erol, “Are USA and China Shifting from a New Cold War to a New Understanding?”, ANKASAM, https://www.ankasam.org/are-usa-and-china-shifting-from-a-new-cold-war-to-a-new-understanding/?lang=en, (Date of Accession: 31.12.2022).
