For the second year in a row, the leaders of the Asia-Pacific nations of Japan, Australia, South Korea and New Zealand have attended the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) Summit. In order to counter China in the Asia Pacific, the United States of America (USA) is seeking partnerships that could change the status quo. It is debated whether these partnerships will lead to the establishment of a new NATO in the region. According to NATO Deputy Secretary General David van Weel, the alliance has no intention of establishing a military alliance in this region. It is stated that the aim here is to “deter China”. [i]
In July 2023, NATO and Japan agreed on the Individually Tailored Partnership Programme (ITPP), pledging to cooperate in 16 areas, including emergency evacuations, cyber defence, strategic communications, innovative and disruptive technologies, space security, climate change, maritime security and arms control. Also during this process, the possibility of NATO opening a liaison office in Tokyo was on the agenda, but French President Emmanuel Macron opposed this plan, fearing that it could increase tensions with China.
Similar to France’s opposition, South Korea is concerned that a possible Asian NATO could provoke China. Nevertheless, both South Korea and Japan have recently signed military co-operation agreements with Australia, thus taking important steps towards joining the Asian NATO. [ii] In this sense, there is a danger that South Korea could be drawn into the military camp led by the US, Japan and Australia. New Zealand, which has similar concerns to South Korea, is also hesitant about both the ICCPR and NATO.
NATO appears to be very interested in extending its strategic influence to Asia. The biggest player in this Asian NATO appears to be Japan. In mid-December 2023, North Korea conducted back-to-back missile tests capable of hitting the United States. In the face of threats from North Korea, NATO members are seeking closer ties with their Asian allies. [iii]
NATO plans to increase its presence in the Asia-Pacific without further provoking North Korea or China. This requires a delicate balancing act on the part of the alliance. At the same time, “strategic ambiguity” has become useful among the great powers. However, NATO’s ambiguity regarding its expansion into Asia also has a negative impact on regional allies-partners.
According to experts, the Alliance cannot afford to remain indifferent to the Indo-Pacific region. [iv] What happens in this region directly affects the economic and security interests of NATO countries. Therefore, if the alliance members in Europe move away from the idea of establishing an Asian NATO, the United States and perhaps the United Kingdom may seek to establish a military alliance in the Asia-Pacific in line with their own strategic interests. NATO Deputy Secretary General David van Weel has stated that the alliance does not have the goal of establishing a military alliance in this region, implying that Europe’s path is in fact diverging from that of the US. Prof. Marie Soderberg of the European Institute for Japanese Studies said, “The focus of Northern Europe is definitely not the Indo-Pacific. Sweden is not joining the alliance because of Indo-Pacific concerns.” [v] Nevertheless, European countries are sending more navies to the Asia-Pacific and trying to increase their other military presence.
In the event of a crisis in the Asia-Pacific, one of the key roles of NATO’s European members would be to support economic sanctions. Other than that, it is unlikely that Europe will follow the US in tackling the problems in the Asia-Pacific. On this issue, Prof Masahiro Matsumura of the University of St Andrew said: “Many European countries are reluctant to adopt a confrontational security approach towards China in order to maintain strong trade and economic ties. Like many other countries, European countries face a difficult situation in the midst of the US-China confrontation.” [vi]
Due to the above-mentioned factors, it can be said that the US is reconsidering its security partnerships with Europe. [vii] At some point, Washington may have to make a strategic choice between its interests in Asia and Europe’s security. On this issue, the New York Times reported that the US might withdraw from NATO if Trump is re-elected. [viii] In order to correct the structural imbalance in transatlantic defence, the United States has been urging its European allies to become more involved in Asia-Pacific issues.
At this point, the US has assumed a great burden, especially in Ukraine’s war against Russia, that is, in ensuring Europe’s security. As such, Europe is facing a major dilemma and even a deadlock in terms of the transatlantic security structure and the sustainability of its security strategies in Asia. From this point on, the United States may start to follow its own path regarding the security of the Asia-Pacific.
[i] “NATO Aims To ‘Discourage’ China on Taiwan, Official Says”, Asia Nikkie, https://asia.nikkei.com/Editor-s-Picks/Interview/NATO-aims-to-discourage-China-on-Taiwan-official-says, (Date Accession: 19.12.2023).
[ii] “NATO wants Asia”, Johnmenadue, https://johnmenadue.com/nato-wants-asia/, (Date Accession: 19.12.2023).
[iii] “Gravitas: China, N. Korea Bonhomie Worries NATO | North Atlantic-Pacific Treaty Organisation Soon?”, Wionews, https://www.wionews.com/videos/gravitas-china-n-korea-bonhomie-worries-nato-north-atlantic-pacific-treaty-organisation-soon-671028, (Date Accession: 19.12.2023).
[iv] “NATO’s Delicate Balancing Act İn The Indo-Pacific”, Japan Times, https://www.japantimes.co.jp/commentary/2023/12/19/japan/nato-japan-indo-pacific/, (Date Accession: 19.12.2023).
[v] Ibıd.
[vi] Ibıd.
[vii] “The US And Europe Must Recalibrate Their Security Partnership”, Defense News, https://www.defensenews.com/opinion/2023/12/18/the-us-and-europe-must-recalibrate-their-security-partnership/, (Date Accession: 19.12.2023).
[viii] “New York Times: Trump yeniden seçilirse ABD’yi NATO’dan çekebilir”, Indyturk, https://www.indyturk.com/node/680596/d%C3%BCnya/new-york-times-trump-yeniden-se%C3%A7ilirse-abdyi-natodan-%C3%A7ekebilir, (Date Accession: 19.12.2023).
