To determine its policies towards the Indo-Pacific region, Germany published a vision document titled “Germany-Europe-Asia: Shaping the 21st Century Together” in September 2020. In this directive, it is emphasized that the development of the Indo-Pacific directly or indirectly affects the welfare and security of Germany. The growing interest of the great powers in the economic, political, and security developments in the Indo-Pacific over the last two or three years has been instrumental in Germany’s opening up to the region.
With the global power competition shifting to the Indo-Pacific geography, Germany started to direct its economic, military, and political attention to the region in order not to be left behind by other actors. The clearest indication of this interest was that in August 2021, Germany sent its warship to the region for the first time in twenty years. The Bayern frigate of the German Navy, which first anchored in the port of Japan, then started to perform a six-month mission in the region.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who took office in December 2021, made his first overseas visit in Asia to Japan in April 2022. In the Indo-Pacific opening, it has been much discussed that Japan should be preferred rather than China. Therefore, Germany’s approach to China has begun to be wondered. Another remarkable development took place in this process. “Politico Magazine” announced that German Chancellor Scholz plans to travel to China on 3-4 November 2022.[1] This step can be interpreted as an effort to give a new direction to Germany’s Indo-Pacific policies. This step can be interpreted as Germany’s effort to give a new direction to its Indo-Pacific policies.
Trying to establish a balance between China and Japan, Germany tries to carry out its Indo-Pacific policies on a fine line. Taking into account regional and global geopolitics, Germany tries to pursue a policy that considers the following economic (commercial), political, and military (security) factors.
Economic (Commercial) Factors
Since China has been its largest trading partner of Germany for the last seven years, it has a different position from Japan in Berlin’s foreign policy. Japan is Germany’s second-largest trading partner in Asia. Despite this, the Berlin administration is trying to shift its weight in foreign trade from China to Japan, especially due to the geopolitical risks originating from Taiwan. In this respect, Scholz’s visit to Beijing on 3-4 November 2022 has particular importance. While the German Chancellor is trying to keep Germany’s positive relations with China by considering commercial interests; on the other hand, he aims to put pressure on Beijing on issues such as the Russia-Ukraine War and the Taiwan Crisis.
The economic dependence of European states on China facilitates the establishment of political influence over Beijing. For example, European states are discussing the imposition of economic sanctions on China in case the Taiwan crisis grows. This threat of economic sanctions causes China to think twice before taking a step toward Taiwan.
On the other hand, such threats carry the possibility of provoking China more. Therefore, unlike the United States of America (US), European countries, especially Germany, avoid making statements that directly target China. Because the Berlin administration may have realized that it would be more costly to exclude China by giving weight to Japan in economic relations. In other words, the danger of losing China while trying to win Japan may have caused Scholz to make a sudden visit to Beijing. But its ability to maintain its trade relations with China depends, first of all, on Germany’s political attitude.
Political Factors
Berlin is positioned opposite Russia and China in global politics. It criticizes Beijing on many issues, from human rights violations to China’s military activities in the southern seas. To be more general, Germany is one of the Western states that thinks China is challenging the rules-based international order. At the same time, it is one of the actors who are uncomfortable with and criticize China’s support of Moscow in the Russia-Ukraine War.
The fact that Germany sided with the US in Taiwan-related matters is something Beijing is uncomfortable with. After the Speaker of the US House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, Germany announced that “it would not allow a big neighbor to attack a small neighboring state” and warned Beijing that it would defend Taiwan.[2] In other words, Germany made a statement of support for Taiwan at the expense of disrupting its economic relations with China. In other words, Berlin tried to deter China by implying that it could support the US if necessary. As the risk of war decreased, Germany called for de-escalation in the Taiwan Strait and emphasized that it was committed to the “One China Policy.”[3]
In this process, the G7 countries, including Germany and Japan, issued a joint statement criticizing China’s military drills around Taiwan. Although Beijing rejected this statement of the G7, it kept away from bringing any diplomatic or economic measures to the European states. One of Beijing’s biggest concerns is the deterioration of its economic relations with Europe due to the Taiwan Crisis.
Military (Security) Factors
Germany, which aims to counter China’s military activities in the region to build a free and open Indo-Pacific, is one of the Western allies of the US in the region. After deploying the first naval ship to the region in late 2021, Germany participated in a multilateral air military drill called “Pitch Black 2022” held in Australia in August 2021.[4] Germany sent 6 Eurofighter fighter jets to the region after a total flight of 22 thousand kilometers,[5] and it was the clearest indicator of Berlin’s determination to increase its presence in the Indo-Pacific.[6] A month later, the first joint air drill between Japan and Germany was held.
In general, Germany has been trying to increase its military presence in the Indo-Pacific, especially in the last two years, and one of its biggest allies in the region is Japan. The Berlin administration says that it may send more ships and planes to the region in the future due to the increasing Chinese threat.[7] On the other hand, it takes care not to enter into a possible trade war with China. However, Berlin’s increasing military presence in the region may draw the reaction of Beijing. Therefore, Berlin started to focus on trade with Japan as an alternative to China.
As a result, Germany, as a Western power, became more and more involved in the political, economic, and military competition in the Indo-Pacific. Taking into account the risks and threats posed by the possible crisis that may erupt in Taiwan in particular, at the regional and global level, the Berlin administration tries to follow a politically balanced line between Beijing and Tokyo. Focusing on developing cooperation with Japan in the field of security, Germany is trying to ensure a transition from China to Japan in trade relations.
[1] “Germany’s Scholz to Travel to China on November 3-4”, Politico, https://www.politico.eu/article/germanys-scholz-to-travel-to-china-on-november-3-4/, (Date of Accession: 11.10.2022).
[2] “China Issues Threatening Warning to Germany After Support for US Pelosi’s Visit to Taiwan”, Express, https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1649801/china-news-Nancy-pelosi-Taiwan-visit-germany-annalena-baerbock-berlin-ambassador-Beijing, (Date of Accession: 11.10.2022).
[3] “Germany Calls for De-Escalation in Taiwan Strait”, AA, https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/germany-calls-for-de-escalation-in-taiwan-strait/2652753, (Date of Accession: 11.10.2022).
[4] “Japan’s Air Self-Defense Force, German Air Force Hold First Joint Drill in Japan”, NHK World-Japan, https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20220928_27/, (Date of Accession: 11.10.2022).
[5] “Alman Eurofighter Uçakları, Hint-Pasifik Bölgesinde Tatbikatlara Katılacak”, TRT Haber, https://www.trthaber.com/haber/dunya/alman-eurofighter-ucaklari-hint-pasifik-bolgesinde-tatbikatlara-katilacak-701553.html, (Date of Accession: 11.10.2022).
[6] “Australia, Germany, Korea, The United States, Japan and 12 Other Nations Make a Show of Force Against China”, Atalayar, https://atalayar.com/en/content/australia-germany-korea-united-states-japan-and-12-other-nations-make-show-force-against, (Date of Accession: 11.10.2022).
[7] “Germany Says It Will Expand Military Presence in Indo-Pacific as China Threat Looms”, Al Arabiya, https://english.alarabiya.net/News/world/2022/08/31/Germany-says-it-will-expand-military-presence-in-Indo-Pacific-as-China-threat-looms, (Date of Accession: 11.10.2022).
