China identified two possible flight routes for its test-firing of a ballistic missile from a nuclear-powered submarine earlier this week, with the northern route passing over Japan, according to its advance notifications and expert analysis.
But the missile likely flew near the Philippines along the southern route on Monday, leaving Japan and other countries in the region to assess Beijing’s intentions while stepping up vigilance against China.
Beijing has not revealed details of the launch, saying only that its navy successfully launched a “strategic missile” carrying a dummy warhead toward the high seas of the Pacific Ocean.
Hiroki Sonoda, a military analyst and former member of the Japanese Self-Defense Forces, said one of the two routes China considered would have seen the missile launched off northern China near the Yellow Sea before arcing over Japan’s exclusive economic zone.
The other path would have seen the missile launched east of China’s Hainan Island in the South China Sea before passing near the Philippines, Sonoda said, citing prior notifications by Chinese maritime authorities.
A Japanese government source said the launch likely took place from the east of Hainan Island rather than from the northern route’s Bohai Sea. Australian media have said the nuclear-capable missile flew over multiple Pacific nations and appears to have hit waters close to Tuvalu’s EEZ.
