In the conjuncture brought about by the Russia-Ukraine War, the importance of the Central Asian geography in global politics has increased. As a result of the increasing interest in the region, the cooperation and partnership agreements signed recently have increased. In addition to the European actors that provide diversity of cooperation with the effect of the energy crisis, there are also Asian powers that carry out a strategy of being effective in the region.
At this point, it is seen that countries such as India, China and Japan come to the fore. Especially with the effect of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, there are important developments in its relations with the countries of the region. The increasing value and strategic importance of the Middle Corridor also strengthens China-Central Asia ties.
At this point, the last example of increased cooperation was the cooperation package signed between Uzbekistan and China. On March 29, 2023, a series of agreements on cooperation in the fields of trade, economy and energy were signed between Uzbekistan and the People’s Republic of China. In addition to the cooperation between the parties in the field of renewable energy resources and trade, agreements on establishing a partnership between the local government in Tashkent and China’s Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region were also signed. In addition, a Memorandum of Understanding was signed on the construction of solar power plants in Navoi and Fergana regions.[1]
Uzbekistan and China, which diversified their fields of cooperation, signed agreements worth 15 billion dollars in the fields of trade, investment, financial and technical cooperation in September 2022.[2] It is seen that the partnerships between the two are progressing step by step.
It can be stated that developments based in Afghanistan and Ukraine have brought Central Asia to a strategic and critical point in terms of energy and transportation. Accordingly, many actors have taken action to strengthen ties with the countries of the region. It is possible to say that China is one step ahead in this regard. It can be said that Beijing, which has been interested in the region for a long time, is reaping the fruits of its past investments today. Beijing strengthens its relations with regional capitals through various partnerships. It is known that the relations between the parties are mostly based on energy and security.
The Central Asia-China mechanism is also an important factor that strengthens the ties between the parties. Such regional and global structures allow for increased mutual interaction. Launched in 2020, C5+1 meetings have become an important tool in strengthening mutual partnerships.
However, China has a significant share in the export revenues of Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan. In terms of security, China is an important partner for Central Asian countries in terms of providing military technology and equipment. Tajikistan-China joint border patrols and counter-terrorism exercises set an important example within the scope of military cooperation.
It can be said that another important component in relations is the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). The SCO makes a strategic contribution to Beijing’s enhanced role in Central Asia. Through the SCO, commercial, economic, military and political interactions are deepened.
The decrease in Russia’s military and political influence also paved the way for China to increase its influence in the region. For example, the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) was ineffective in the Tajik-Kyrgyz border issues. Accordingly, it is seen that the perspective of the countries of the region towards the CSTO has been negatively affected. Because Bishkek canceled the joint CSTO exercise called “Sarsılmaz Brotherhood-2022” to be held in Kyrgyzstan.[3]
On the other hand, it is known that the effects of the Russia-Ukraine War reduced Moscow’s influence in the region. In order to fill the gap, China is taking steps to move from the position of “commercial partner” to “strategic partner” status. In this direction, it is seen that economic and infrastructure-based relations have been developed within the scope of the energy and security sectors. Following a pro-active policy, the Beijing administration strengthened its ties by signing economic agreements with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan in 2022.
The acceleration in relations with Uzbekistan and the developments in the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Railway project please Beijing in terms of China’s regional targets. Chinese President Xi Jinping, who also improved relations with Turkmenistan, hosted the President of Turkmenistan, Serdar Berdimuhamedov, on January 6, 2023.[4] As it is known, Beijing attaches great importance to relations with Turkmenistan at the point of meeting its energy needs. It is clear that Ashgabat is also pleased with the development of commercial relations with Beijing. As a matter of fact, on the occasion of the said visit, the relations between the two countries rose to the level of “comprehensive strategic partnership”. Undoubtedly, energy is the cornerstone of cooperation. It can be argued that attempts will continue to be made to strengthen the China-Turkmenistan relations, which have deepened with natural gas cooperation.
While China is making such moves; Some steps are being taken by the West as well. As a matter of fact, on March 17, 2023, senior officials from the governments of the United States (USA), Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan confirmed their common goals and commitments to enhance cooperation and develop trade and investment opportunities as part of the US council meeting. signed the Central Asian Trade and Investment Framework Agreement (TIFA).[5]
The USA, which follows the domestic political steps of the countries in the region and aims to provide efficiency through democratization processes by supporting reform activities, also engages in commercial initiatives. Therefore, Central Asia becomes one of the important areas of US-China competition. Against Beijing, which is one step ahead of European countries and increased its partnership with Central Asia, Washington does not act solely on trade; it also strives to develop a communication within the framework of values.
In addition to the US influence, another compelling factor for China is Russia. Although its influence has decreased due to recent developments, Russia has a strong cultural influence in the region. It is also an important actor in the fields of economy and security. Moreover, Moscow does not want to share its influence in the post-Soviet field because of the “Near Environment Doctrine”.
In summary, the geographical centrality of Central Asia and the decreasing influence of Russia allow China to have a more comfortable presence in the region than ever before. Beijing is also trying to seize this opportunity and is making moves to deepen its ties with the countries of the region. It does this in the infrastructure, energy and transportation center. Therefore, international developments, geostrategic location and the advantage of the Middle Corridor play an encouraging role in China’s moves to further its relations with Central Asia.
On the other hand, there are compelling factors against Beijing’s influence in the region. At this point, it can be stated that Russia is an important factor. Because Russia still has influence in the said geography. However, depending on the new conjuncture, new actors began to appear. It can be said that China is faced with compelling factors in Central Asia, which is a region where European countries are more interested in, along with the USA.
After all, Beijing is aware of the opportunities and challenges and is taking various steps to strengthen its partnerships in the region in line with this awareness. It can be predicted that Beijing will continue its moves to diversify and deepen its cooperation in the future.
[1] “Cooperation Agreements have been Signed Between the Regions of Uzbekistan and China”, The Government Portal of the Republic of Uzbekistan, https://www.gov.uz/en/news/view/36726, (Date of Accession: 01.04.2023).
[2] “China, Uzbekistan Sign Agreements Worth $15B in Samarkand”, Anadolu Agency, https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/china-uzbekistan-sign-agreements-worth-15b-in-samarkand/2686218, (Date of Accession: 01.04.2023).
[3] “Kyrgyzstan Cancels Planned CSTO Exercises”, RFERLY, https://www.rferl.org/a/kyrgyzstan-cancels-csto-military-exercises-belarus-russia/32072105.html, (Date of Accession: 03.04.2023).
[4] “President Xi Jinping Holds Talks with President of Turkmenistan Serdar Berdimuhamedov”, FMPRC, https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_662805/202301/t20230106_11003561.html, (Date of Accession: 03.04.2023).
[5] “US, Central Asia Affirm Joint Commitment to Strengthen Trade and Investment Ties”, Astana Times, https://astanatimes.com/2023/03/us-central-asia-affirm-joint-commitment-to-strengthen-trade-and-investment-ties/, (Date of Accession: 03.04.2023).
