United Nations (UN) Secretary-General Antonio Guterres’s visit to Cyprus on July 27-29, 2026, and his statements concerning the resolution of the issue have once again brought the geopolitical balances in the Eastern Mediterranean to the forefront of international diplomacy. At a time when Türkiye is resolutely maintaining its policy of a two-state solution based on sovereign equality in Cyprus, the Blue Homeland strategy and the protection of rights and interests in maritime jurisdiction areas continue to constitute the main pillars of Turkish foreign policy. The proactive and flexible diplomatic moves to be pursued by Ankara are expected to be decisive across a broad spectrum, from the regional energy equation to the multilateral security architecture.
In this context, the Ankara Center for Crisis and Policy Studies (ANKASAM) presents for your attention the views of leading experts and academics in their fields in order to assess Türkiye’s Eastern Mediterranean and Cyprus strategy in light of Guterres’s visit to Cyprus and recent developments.
Director of the Istanbul Strategic Research Center and ANKASAM Chief Security Advisor, Retired Brigadier General Prof. Oktay BİNGÖL: “Guterres’s Statement Provides an Important Lever in Diplomatic Chess”
Stating that Guterres’s statement provides an important lever in diplomatic chess for Türkiye and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), Bingöl argues that, in this new period in which the half-century-old “federation” paradigm has been exhausted, Ankara must pursue proactive diplomacy on five principal pillars in order to protect its interests in the Eastern Mediterranean and its Blue Homeland vision. According to Bingöl, negotiations under the auspices of the UN should begin only when “sovereign equality and equal international status” are accepted; the EU, which has demonstrated its partiality, should be kept off the table, and open-ended processes should be rejected. Emphasizing that the unilateral EEZ steps of the Greek Cypriot side should be met with drilling activities in the field, Bingöl also maintained that the proposal for an “Eastern Mediterranean Energy Conference,” aimed at cooperation with regional actors, should be kept alive on the diplomatic track.
Regarding the other pillars of the strategy, Bingöl highlighted steps concerning infrastructure, recognition and cooperation on the island. He stated that strategic infrastructure projects, such as supplying electricity from Türkiye via cable, should be completed and that the opening of Maraş should continue in accordance with property law in order to consolidate the island’s economic independence. Bingöl noted that the gains achieved within the Organization of Turkic States (OTS) should be deepened, thereby breaking the TRNC’s isolation in practice in the commercial, academic and cultural fields. He also emphasized that concrete proposals for cooperation between the two states on the basis of equality in areas such as hydrocarbon sharing and irregular migration should be put forward in order to demonstrate the uncompromising stance of the Greek Cypriot Administration of Southern Cyprus (GCASC) to the international public.
Dean of the Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences at Ufuk University and ANKASAM Chief Advisor Prof. Cem KARADELİ: “The UN May Be Trying to Protect the Interests of ‘Certain’ Countries Regarding Cyprus”
Drawing attention to the reasons behind Guterres’s visit to Cyprus, Prof. Cem Karadeli stated, “Whenever the United Nations approaches the Cyprus issue, it involuntarily makes one wonder whose interests are being sought to be protected.” Karadeli said that Türkiye should proceed by conducting an extremely careful assessment of the situation during this process and also named the actors that should be approached with suspicion. In this regard, Karadeli stated that, while the quality of the oil in the region remains disputed, the focus should not be on the interests of France or Italy, but rather on those of Israel and Syria. Recalling that the UN would take the interests of these actors into consideration, Karadeli also underlined that France’s influence in Syria must be taken into account in this strategic equation.
ANKASAM Security Advisor Prof. Şafak OĞUZ: “This Equation in the Eastern Mediterranean Has Once Again Demonstrated That Türkiye’s Cyprus Policy Is Justified”
Prof. Şafak Oğuz stated that the partnership established by Israel, the GCASC and Greece along an anti-Türkiye axis had led to an increase in policies targeting Türkiye in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Aegean, and said, “The fact that these initiatives, through which Israel may have aimed to shift Türkiye’s attention and focus from the Middle East to the Eastern Mediterranean and the Aegean, have received support from Europe constitutes a threat to Türkiye.”
Emphasizing that the Cyprus Issue has come to the forefront in this equation, Oğuz noted that this situation had once again demonstrated how justified Türkiye’s recent Cyprus policy is. Stating that it is of vital importance for Türkiye not to compromise on the independence of the TRNC, Oğuz said that, in this context, increasing efforts to secure explicit and implicit recognition of the TRNC’s independence by Pakistan, the Turkic World, China, Russia and Iran would be a highly appropriate approach.
ANKASAM Eurasia Advisor Assoc. Prof. Halit HAMZAOĞLU: “There Can Be No Compromise on Sovereign Equality and the Blue Homeland in Cyprus”
Assoc. Prof. Halit HAMZAOĞLU stated that the principal parameter of Türkiye’s Cyprus policy is the international recognition of the TRNC and the protection of the rights of the Turkish Cypriots in line with the principle of sovereign equality. He emphasized that scenarios raised during the UN’s recent contacts, which envisage territorial concessions in critical areas such as Maraş and Güzelyurt and the establishment of a federal structure, are unacceptable.
Continuing his remarks, Hamzaoğlu stated that Türkiye carried out the 1974 Cyprus Peace Operation on the basis of its rights arising from the 1960 Treaty of Guarantee and that its rights as a guarantor and military presence, which it has maintained since then, are indispensable elements for protecting its interests in the Eastern Mediterranean. Stating that the Cyprus issue cannot be assessed independently of the geopolitical, geoeconomic and security equations in the Eastern Mediterranean, Hamzaoğlu drew attention to the formation of an alliance axis among Israel, Greece and the GCASC aimed at curbing Türkiye’s influence in the region. Noting that Israel’s attempts to increase military activity in and around the TRNC, establish dominance in the region and gain access to Europe through energy diplomacy are dangerous moves in a process involving numerous international actors, Hamzaoğlu said that vigilance is necessary against faits accomplis developed outside Ankara-centered initiatives.
Emphasizing that the “Blue Homeland” doctrine declared by Türkiye is of vital importance for national security in the face of these conflicts of interest, Hamzaoğlu stated that the energy resources and geostrategic balances in the Eastern Mediterranean would directly shape Türkiye’s future. Stating that Türkiye’s emergence as a regional maritime power and an actor shaping the regional game has disturbed certain countries, particularly Israel and Greece, Hamzaoğlu added that, thanks to its strong strategic vision and consistent maritime policy, Türkiye would continue on its path without compromising its rights in the Blue Homeland and had the power to eliminate all threats in the region.
Faculty Member at Ankara Yıldırım Beyazıt University Assoc. Prof. Nuri SALIK: “A Multidimensional Foreign Policy Is Essential in Cyprus and the Eastern Mediterranean”
Drawing attention to Cyprus’s critical position in the context of the Eastern Mediterranean in terms of maritime jurisdiction areas, energy security and maritime transport routes, Assoc. Prof. Nuri SALIK emphasized that Ankara regards the energy and defense cooperation developed by the GCASC with Greece, Israel and certain European countries as initiatives that exclude Türkiye and the Turkish Cypriots. He therefore stated that Türkiye pursues an active policy aimed at protecting its own continental shelf and exclusive economic zone claims, as well as the rights of the TRNC. Describing the Blue Homeland doctrine as a strategic perspective that treats maritime jurisdiction areas as an integral part of national security, Salık stated that this approach constitutes a holistic vision encompassing diplomacy, energy policies, international law and maritime trade, and that Cyprus is one of the most important elements of this strategy.
Stating that the diplomatic strategy to be pursued in the forthcoming period should be multidimensional, Salık noted that the international visibility and representation opportunities of the TRNC should be strengthened on various platforms, particularly within the OTS. He emphasized that channels of dialogue with international actors, including the UN, should be kept open and that Türkiye’s security concerns and the political equality demands of the Turkish Cypriots should be articulated clearly. He added that initiatives promoting the shared use of energy resources and regional cooperation instead of power competition in the Eastern Mediterranean would strengthen Ankara’s position when supported by instruments of international law and public diplomacy. Finally, Salık stated that Türkiye’s Cyprus policy is expected to take shape along three principal axes in the coming period. He emphasized that these consist of protecting the sovereign equality and security of the Turkish Cypriots; defending maritime jurisdiction areas and energy interests in the Eastern Mediterranean; and pursuing a multidimensional foreign policy approach centered on diplomacy and instruments of international law and supported by military deterrence.
Prepared by: İklim KAMA
