South Korea went to the polls on April 10, 2024 to elect all members of the unicameral National Assembly. The parliamentary elections were widely seen as a referendum on the first two years of the incumbent conservative party leader President Yoon Suk Yeol.[1] With the highest turnout rate in 32 years at 67%, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol’s People Power Party (PPP) saw a decrease in seats from 114 to 108, losing 6 seats, while the opposition liberal Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) and its allies gained 30 seats, increasing their representation in the assembly from 157 to 187.[2]
Since taking office, the Yoon administration has faced the challenge of an opposition-controlled parliament and low approval ratings. As polarization in South Korean domestic politics deepened, the lack of confidence among voters in the Yoon administration has helped the DPK maintain its strength in the National Assembly. In this context, it is important to examine how the continued victory of the opposition party in the National Assembly could lead to changes in South Korea’s foreign policy.
Since Yoon’s foreign policy strategies are not based on populism, it is thought that the election results will not have significant impact on South Korea’s foreign policy. President Yoon is proud of his current conservative foreign policy. At the same time, amidst Prime Minister Han Duck-soo’s and the majority of President Yoon’s senior aides’ submissions of their resignations to facilitate the restructuring of his administration, the fact that this change does not involve foreign policy aides in this transition signifies President Yoon’s resolve to sustain his ongoing diplomatic endeavors.
Throughout his first two years in office, Yoon has been cautious to maintain South Korea’s close relations with the West while avoiding direct confrontation with its geographical neighbors and commercial partners, China and Russia. During his tenure, Yoon revitalized bilateral relations with the United States and Japan and expanded areas of security and economic cooperation. In addition, he has formalized tripartite initiatives in areas such as defence, supply chains, humanitarian aid and advanced technology.
Even before assuming office, Yoon’s presidential campaign prominently featured the Global Pivotal State policy platform, which emphasized the need for South Korea to play a greater role on the international stage. According to several sources, Yoon’s administration’s “multifaceted global diplomacy” contributes to South Korea’s ascent as a proactive and responsible international actor within the global community.[3]
On the other hand, the cost of Yoon’s focus on foreign affairs has not escaped the scrutiny of the South Korean public. This has led to an examination of his foreign travel expenses amounting to 43.8 million dollars.[4] This figure represents a threefold increase in comparison to the foreign travel expenditures of previous presidential administrations.
For the United States, South Korea under President Yoon is a key and willing partner in building a coalition against China. This effort was also emphasized in President Biden’s meetings with the leaders of Japan and the Philippines on April 11, 2024.[5] Despite domestic political backlash, Yoon has endeavored to improve strained relations with Japan. In this context, it is believed that the Yoon government intends to continue its foreign policy objectives of expanding trilateral partnerships with the United States and Japan, establishing ties with NATO, and striving to become a “global pivotal” state in the Asia-Pacific region.[6]
The efforts of the Yoon government to strengthen relations with the United States, which have been positively received by the South Korean public, have generally garnered support from the National Assembly, which has been under opposition control thus far. On the other hand, particularly the opposition Democratic Party of Korea and the Rebuilding Korea Party have opposed South Korea’s efforts to strengthen bilateral relations with Japan. They have criticized the possibility of closer partnership with Japan through military exercises or intelligence sharing, citing South Korea’s experiences under Japanese colonial rule.[7]
It should not be overlooked that the failure to deter North Korea’s ongoing military provocations in East Asia may lead voters to question the effectiveness of South Korea’s strategic partnerships with the United States and Japan for security purposes. In the coming days, the opposition party may exert pressure on the government by criticizing Yoon’s foreign policy as impractical. A strengthened opposition may also seek to hinder Yoon’s plans to strengthen bilateral ties with Japan.
During the last election campaign, Democratic Party of Korea Leader Lee Jae-myung advocated for neutrality on issues concerning the Taiwan Strait and the Russia-Ukraine War. He strongly criticized President Yoon for alienating China, South Korea’s largest trading partner, on behalf of Washington. He argued that escalating tensions with China and providing support to Ukraine in the Russia-Ukraine War would harm South Korea by affecting trade and relations with Russia and North Korea. This neutral stance sharply contrasts with Yoon’s approach, which seeks to enhance South Korea’s global profile by providing increased support to Ukraine, hosting the Democracy Summit, and promoting value-based diplomacy.[8]
Opposition Leader Lee also prefers dialogue with North Korea, unlike President Yoon and Washington’s approach that prioritizes sanctions and military deterrence.[9] This situation will deepen strategic divisions within the newly formed National Assembly, making President Yoon less likely to successfully implement a foreign policy strategy that requires bipartisan support. If the opposition, which holds the majority in the Assembly, attempts to cut budgets, there is a potential risk for Yoon’s foreign policy plans to be jeopardized.
According to many voters; this election has been more about domestic issues, such as inflation and signs of democratic decline, than foreign policy. According to a survey conducted by KBS, 73% of voters viewed housing costs and inflation as important factors in their voting decisions.[10] On the other hand, Yoon’s policies such as paying compensation with public funds to victims of forced labor in the Second World War and passively accepting Japan’s release of treated radioactive wastewater from the Fukushima Nuclear Plant have led to reactions within the country.[11] This has allowed the Democratic Party to portray the Yoon administration as “extremely pro-Japanese,” exacerbating the political divide with conservatives.
The maintenance of a overwhelming opposition majority within the National Assembly would also undermine President Yoon’s diplomatic endeavors aimed at consolidating resources and aligning policies with allied nations vis-à-vis North Korea and China. Furthermore, opposition factions within the National Assembly, bolstered by the support of approximately 60% of the populace, may endeavor to impede the burgeoning proximity in the nation’s approach toward Japan.[12]
Improving relations with Japan will be the biggest foreign policy challenge for the remainder of Yoon’s term. With the next presidential election in 2027, Yoon has three years to show that his foreign policy strategies are working. In this process, while he continues to strengthen the US-South Korea bilateral relations, which enjoys public support, he will have to act more cautiously regarding the continuation of trilateral cooperation with Japan, which maintains public sensitivity. It is essential to remember that government policies derives primarily from domestic sources. Amid efforts to expand South Korea’s role in the international arena, ensuring robust domestic and international support for policy coherence, feasibility, and long-term sustainability is crucial.
[1] “South Korean President Yoon faces foreign policy challenges after the National Assembly election”, The Conversation, https://theconversation.com/south-korean-president-yoon-faces-foreign-policy-challenges-after-the-national-assembly-election-227650,(Date of Access: 19.04.2024).
[2] Ibid.
[3] “A Balancing Crisis: Managing Foreign and Domestic Policy Ahead of the South Korean Election”, The Diplomat, https://thediplomat.com/2024/04/a-balancing-crisis-managing-foreign-and-domestic-policy-ahead-of-the-south-korean-election/, (Date of Access: 20.04.2024).
[4] Ibid.
[5] “Stinging Election Loss Leaves South Korean Leader at a Crossroads”, The New York Times, https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/11/world/asia/south-korea-yoon-election.html, (Date of Access: 19.04.2024).
[6] “South Korean President Yoon faces foreign policy challenges after the National Assembly election”, The Conversation, https://theconversation.com/south-korean-president-yoon-faces-foreign-policy-challenges-after-the-national-assembly-election-227650,(Date of Access: 19.04.2024).
[7] Ibid.
[8] “South Korea’s 2024 General Election: Results and Implications”, Center for Strategic and International Studies, https://www.csis.org/analysis/south-koreas-2024-general-election-results-and-implications, (Date of Access: 19.04.2024).
[9] “Stinging Election Loss Leaves South Korean Leader at a Crossroads”, The New York Times, https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/11/world/asia/south-korea-yoon-election.html, (Date of Access: 19.04.2024).
[10] “Commentary: South Korea’s foreign policy on the ballot”, Channel News Asia, https://www.channelnewsasia.com/commentary/south-korea-election-2024-president-yoon-suk-yeol-domestic-foreign-policy-4252796, (Date of Access: 20.04.2024).
[11] Ibid.
[12] Ibid.
