To evaluate the AfD’s latest election victory and its possible implications for Europe, the Ankara Center for Crisis and Political Studies (ANKASAM) presents below the interview with Dr. Joseph Downing, Senior Lecturer in International Relations and Politics at Aston University, Birmingham, UK.
1. How would you interpret the fact that the AfD secured 43.8 percent of the vote in the state election in Saxony-Anhalt, outpacing its closest rival, the CDU, by 26 percentage points? In your opinion, what has changed—and what is changing—in German politics and society in recent years?
Germany is going through a difficult transition, primarily in terms of the de-industrialisation of the German economy in light of 1) the war in Ukraine and the end of cheap Russian gass imports and 2) because of Chinese competation and US tariffs effecting the car industries exports. Thus, there is a sense of existential dread hanging over Germany. Additionally, Germans, like all other Europeans, are being flooded with social media posts about the negative aspects of migration and the replacement of white populations with immigrant populations. Since Trump’s election in the USA social media companies have massive watered down content moderation, just as China and Russia are upping their hybridware approach to social media to aid in the dissemination of such narratives to sow instability in politics and broader society across Europe.
2. What could be the effects of the rising far-right in Germany on the European Union? What are your future predictions on this issue?
I don’t think that the rise of the right will lead to the break up of the EU, but it will make EU’s job harder in passing new legislation and also in providing support to Ukraine.
3. What would you like to say about the drones allegedly belonging to Russia in the Baltic countries and most recently in Germany? Do you think Europe might be getting drawn into a war with Russia? On this issue, Russian FM Sergei Lavrov said that ‘Germany wants war again’. What would you like to say about these developments?
War is not the same as it used to be – we imagine war as standing armies facing off against each other on a battlefield. We are already at war with Russia in terms of hybrid war – cyber attacks, drones, etc. I highly doubt it will escalate to full open military conflict – however, Putin is extremely unpredictable so one should never count it out entirely.
