The Visegrad Group (V-4) was formed on February 15, 1991, by Hungary, Poland, and Czechoslovakia with the desire to eliminate the remnants of the Eastern Bloc in Central Europe and to overcome the historical animosities between the countries of Central Europe. Although V4 does not have a common foreign policy, the Russia-Ukraine War disrupted the harmony between Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, and Czechia, which had hitherto acted in harmony, especially on issues related to the European Union (EU).
In this context, Ankara Center for Crisis and Policy Studies (ANKASAM) presents the views of Dr. Máté Szalai, a senior researcher at the Institute for Foreign Affairs and Trade in Hungary, evaluating the future of V-4.
- How do you think the Russia-Ukraine War affected the Visegrád group?
The war highlighted a weak point in the Visegrád cooperation format, namely the lack of potential for cooperation in strategic foreign policy issues. The four Visegrád countries have diverse interests and viewpoints of Russia, and all four states’ domestic politics are somehow affected by Russia.
Nevertheless, the V4 group was never meant to be an over-arching integration format but rather a consultative framework for specific issues. That is why I do not think that the V4 is in danger of dissolution, the four countries’ cooperation in other issues of common interests is not undermined by the Russian-Ukrainian war.
- How would you interpret the recent signs of rapprochement between Poland and Hungary, which are members of the Visegrád group?
I think that both countries especially Poland are good at the compartmentalization of problems. Even if they disagree on Russia and Ukraine, the parties can continue to cooperate on several other issues. I think that the fact that currently there are more visible signs of this cooperation does not mean that there is a “rapprochement” between the two states, but rather than those questions in which there are mutual interests are getting more important than in the last months.
- Do you think the Visegrád Group can return to a cooperation process again?
For sure, on areas unaffected by the V4. If the war loses significance for decision-makers in Central Europe, that would allow other policy areas to strengthen again. This situation can reignite the Visegrád Group.
- How do you see the future of the Visegrád Group?
I do not see any major changes in the Visegrád format, at least in the middle term. I don’t think that it will evolve into a deeper integration format. However, I also do not believe that it would perish as a consultative forum. Because its maintenance has minimal costs and the profits are much bigger.
Máté SZALAI
Máté Szalai is a senior researcher at the Institute for Foreign Affairs and Trade in Hungary. He holds a MA and a Ph.D. in international relations from Corvinus University in Budapest. Szalai’s areas of expertise are security policies, political reform processes, democracy, and governance.
