The United States (US) is trying to restrict China, which is challenging it, in order to maintain its global hegemony. In doing so, American government agencies analyze and report on the dimensions and combat capabilities of China’s military power, in particular, in the reports they publish. Accordingly, the reports prepared by American think tanks and universities, especially the Department of Defense (Pentagon), are submitted to the Senate for consideration and then to the White House. Simulations of a possible war over Taiwan are being prepared and the results are being reported. Therefore, the Pentagon and the White House take these reports into account when determining their strategies regarding China. In line with the latest reports from both domestic agencies and the Pentagon, the White House mentioned the importance of maintaining and strengthening deterrence against China in the latest National Security Strategy Document published in October 2022.[1]
As a result of their research, American military analysts have come to the conclusion that it is very important to prevent the outbreak of a war against China in Taiwan. According to reports by many American think tanks and universities, China could quickly seize the island in a fait accompli until the US comes to protect Taiwan. The Pentagon has recently published its annual assessment report regarding the Chinese Army. In this report, it was emphasized that China has doubled its satellite coverage in the Western Pacific over the past four years and has increased its ability to detect American naval vessels.[2] In this context, Pentagon reports indicate that the US cannot win a conflict close to the Chinese coast and defend Taiwan, whether it wants to or not. It is even claimed that due to these views of the Pentagon, US President Joe Biden met with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping in November 2022 in order to avoid military conflicts.[3]
It can be said that the Pentagon has a great influence on the decisions of the White House, but it cannot influence the final decision. The clearest example of this was seen before the visit of the Speaker of the US House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan in August 2022. The Pentagon has informed Biden that it does not support this visit.[4] Despite the Pentagon, the White House has taken the risk of carrying out this visit. As a matter of fact, the Pentagon continues to share the view that the risk of war is high and that this will be dangerous for the interests of the US.
In this context The Pentagon considers the White House’s policies on Taiwan to be dangerous and constantly warns the Biden administration about this. The Pentagon, which has recently taken the initiative to reduce the risk of this conflict, has held talks with China’s military authorities to reopen channels of dialogue.
In short, the Pentagon calculates that the war in Taiwan will be difficult to win. As a matter of fact, if China, the first to act, seizes Taiwan in a short time, it will take time for the US to come to the aid of its closest troops from Guam, South Korea, Japan and Singapore. Therefore, the US may not be able to defend Taiwan. Due to this security weakness, the US may begin to pursue a deterrence-based policy in the near future, which can also be characterized as a war of attrition against China.[5] On this issue, the White House has announced that it will work closely with Congress to increase deterrence regarding Taiwan. The most fundamental factor that the US takes into account is that China’s military capacity. Especially after the researches and war simulations conducted on China’s military power and combat capability starting from the year 2021, the Pentagon and the Senate have seen that the US is not ready for a possible war in Taiwan[6] and has taken action to improve the military capabilities and strategies of the army.[7] For example, in 2021, It is claimed that in the war simulation conducted at the Naval War College in the US state of Rhode Island, alarming results were revealed for the American Army.[8] The officials did not disclose the results of the war, but it is known that this report has been submitted to the Pentagon and Congress and is being considered.
What attention getter in these studies is that China’s superiority over the US in a possible war is not only due to conventional capabilities. On the contrary, what is more worrying for the US is that China has significantly increased its military technology and combat capabilities.
In its latest report, the Pentagon noted that China’s military capacity has improved both quantitatively and qualitatively. For example, the Pentagon claimed that the Chinese Navy would reach 400 ships by 2025, while the stockpile of nuclear warheads would reach about 1,500 by 2035.[9] The White House has been revising its policies on China and Taiwan, especially based on the reports submitted to it by the Pentagon and the Senate over the past year. In the National Security Strategy Document of October 2022, the White House used the following statements:[10]
“More capable competitors and new strategies of threatening behavior below and above the traditional threshold of conflict mean we cannot afford to rely solely on conventional forces and nuclear deterrence. Our defense strategy must sustain and strengthen deterrence, with the China.”
American officials always consider such a possibility, even if they suggest that China will not be able to act in Taiwan anytime soon. What the US wants to do is to deter China from attacking Taiwan and delay this operation as much as possible, or prevent it if possible.
These reports are decisive in whether the US takes action on Taiwan. If China is victorious on paper, the US will not take steps to protect Taiwan. That is why US officials, in statements they have made over the past year, have stated that all options are on the table to deter China. In doing so, the US is trying to keep dialogue channels open with China in order to avoid a possible crisis and conflict. This can also be called the “push and pull strategy” of the US against China.
Within the scope of the strategy mentioned above, first, the US is provoking China by conducting patrols for navigation safety in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea. Thus, it is testing China’s strength and limits. Second, it is trying to reduce tensions with China by saying that it has always adhered to the principle of “one China” and does not intend to change the status quo. Thus, it aims to be able to advance its interests in the Indo-Pacific by keeping dialogue channels open with China.
The first strategy is mostly adopted by the White House. The American political will is of the opinion that it is beneficial to take risks in order to respond to challenge of China. The second strategy belongs, rather, to the Pentagon. The American military-security circles are working to mitigate the risks of a war with China in Taiwan.
Overall, an alignment among the Pentagon, the White House, and the Senate regarding Taiwan policies seems difficult to achieve. Perhaps this clash leads to the view that “US policy on Taiwan is ambiguous.” This is also called the “gray strategy.” It is a question mark whether the US is deliberately pursuing this grey strategy or whether it has unknowingly led to it.
[1] “China Could Have 1,500 Nuclear Warheads By 2035: Pentagon Report”, CNN, https://edition.cnn.com/2022/11/29/politics/china-nuclear-arsenal-military-power-report-pentagon/index.html, (Date of Accession: 07.12.2022).
[2] “Pentagon, Chinese Analysts Agree US Can’t Win in Taiwan Strait”, Asia Times, https://asiatimes.com/2022/12/pentagon-chinese-analysts-agree-us-cant-win-in-taiwan-strait/, (Date of Accession: 07.12.2022).
[3] Ibid.
[4] “Biden Says Military Does Not Support Nancy Pelosi Trip to Taiwan”, NBC News, https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/biden-says-military-not-support-nancy-pelosi-visit-taiwan-rcna39259, (Date of Accession: 07.12.2022).
[5] “Biden Administration Working with Congress On ‘Deterrence’ over Taiwan -White House”, Devdiscourse, https://www.devdiscourse.com/article/politics/2276383-biden-administration-working-with-congress-on-deterrence-over-taiwan–white-house, (Date of Accession: 06.12.2022).
[6] “We’re Going to Lose Fast’: U.S. Air Force Held A War Game That Started With A Chinese Biological Attack”, Yahoo, https://news.yahoo.com/were-going-to-lose-fast-us-air-force-held-a-war-game-that-started-with-a-chinese-biological-attack-170003936.html, (Date of Accession: 07.12.2022).
[7] “US Military Changing Strategy After Losing Simulated War With China”, Independent, https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/us-military-changing-strategy-after-losing-simulated-war-with-china-b1894062.html, (Date of Accession: 07.12.2022).
[8] “War Games Must Yield Honest Results, Or We Risk Wartime Mistakes”, The Hill, https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/583162-war-games-must-yield-honest-results-or-we-risk-wartime-mistakes, Date of Accession: 07.12.2022).
[9] “China Could Have 1,500 Nuclear Warheads By 2035: Pentagon Report”, CNN, https://edition.cnn.com/2022/11/29/politics/china-nuclear-arsenal-military-power-report-pentagon/index.html, (Date of Accession: 06.12.2022).
[10] “National Security Strategy”, The White House, https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Biden-Harris-Administrations-National-Security-Strategy-10.2022.pdf, (Date of Accession: 13.12.2022).
