Looking at the recent developments in the Indo-Pacific, it will be seen that the dynamics between the Western powers and China are changing rapidly. The first breakthrough is the re-election of Chinese President Xi Jinping for a third term at the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in October 2022. Jinping’s statement to Congress that he resolutely emphasized the goals of fully modernizing the military by 2027 and building a great Chinese civilization by 2049 and reiterating the ideal of peaceful or force-based unification with regard to Taiwan, has caused serious concern in the West. Immediately afterwards, the leaders of Germany and then the leaders of the United States of America (USA) and France, met with Jinping and tried to reduce the crisis areas and ease the tension. On the other hand, China’s strategy of dialogue with the West has led the US to different cooperation options in the Indo-Pacific. One of them is France.
Before moving on to the China strategies of the USA and France, it is necessary to briefly mention the China discussions in Europe and France’s position. First of all, France is one of the European states that has frequently sent parliamentary delegations to Taiwan in recent years. French President Emmanuel Macron has also previously called for measures to be taken within the framework of the European Union (EU) due to the secondary sanctions imposed by China on Lithuania. Also recently, Macron has called for a more balanced relationship between China and the EU, stating that they have made “strategic mistakes” due to the infrastructure transfer to China in the past.[1] More specifically, France and the other EU leaders have been disturbed by Washington’s hawkish stance on Beijing in 2020 and beyond and have refrained from pursuing American policies in the Indo-Pacific. But as the West’s dependence on Chinese technologies and investments has grown, the situation has shifted, and European leaders have increasingly begun to support America’s China strategy.[2]
While the China debate in Europe continues, it is becoming clear that there is a leadership race between France and Germany on this issue. After German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s visit to Beijing, Macron decided to make an opening on China. In other words, France aims to get ahead of Germany’s China strategy and lead Continental Europe in this regard.
The intensification of the U.S. talks with China has been another development that has attracted France’s attention in this process. After US President Joe Biden met with Jinping on the sidelines of the G20 Summit in Bali in November 2022, Macron also met with the Chinese leader. In his meeting with Jinping, Macron repeated what Scholz and Biden had said earlier. In this context, the French leader wanted Jinping to use his influence over Russia to end the war in Ukraine and prevent nuclear war.[3] In short, France has begun to pursue the Chinese policy of both Germany and the United States. Moreover, the French leader has said that he will visit Beijing next year. This policy shows that it follows Germany.
There are other signs that France is following the US in its China strategy. Macron opened a new chapter in bilateral relations by visiting Washington on December 1, 2022. The joint statement issued after the Macron-Biden meeting emphasized the urgency of cooperation in the region as Pacific powers.[4] As a matter of fact, US-France relations deteriorated with the signing of the AUKUS last year. France withdrew its ambassador to Washington. What was offensive for France was the fact that the US did not inform about this in advance. At the time, French officials made statements like “we were stabbed in the back”[5]
More recently, Biden has admitted that they made a mistake by not notifying France of this agreement in advance.[6] Also in June 2022, the US announced that they could cooperate with France and the EU in the Blue Pacific Partnership. In other words, the United States is in favor of further cooperation with France in the Indo-Pacific.
This demand has increased further recently after Japan and Australia focused on talks with China. The U.S. needs new strong partners outside of Japan and Australia. India is not very keen on partnership with the United States on the seas. Britain has its own interests in the region. Germany and Italy’s presence in the region is weak. Only France remains. In short, the United States needs to expand its alliances in the Indo-Pacific and cooperate with France in this sense.
As in all Western countries, we can say that France is also experiencing a confusion about China. France is cooperating with the United States towards the goal of a “Free and Open Indo-Pacific”. But China differs from it in its strategy. Because of this difference of opinion, the United States and the United Kingdom moved towards a defence partnership with Australia, excluding France in the Indo-Pacific, and signed AUKUS. France continues to express its discomfort with this defense alliance targeting China. For example, Macron criticized Australia on November 17, 2022, claiming that he had provoked China with AUKUS. Because France is against provocative moves in the Indo-Pacific, whether they come from the West or China, and is close to India in this respect.[7] Both France and India can be characterized as actors that do not follow the US China strategy in the seas.
Beijing’s response to the United States was not delayed. In this context, China is trying to change Europe’s views and separate it from the United States. Lately Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, in a meeting with his French counterpart Catherine Colonna, has praised Paris for its “strategic autonomy” and urged for the development of bilateral relations.[8] In this context, another Western actor with whom China is trying to improve its relations is France, which has military and political activity in the Indo-Pacific. While Washington is trying to expand its alliance in the Indo-Pacific by cooperating with Paris; Beijing is striving to take all the instruments in Washington’s hands. The main ones of these instruments are Japan, Australia and France. In addition to these, we can also mention Germany and India. When you take away the allies of the United States, it will be isolated in the region. This is Beijing’s strategy. To leave the United States in the middle in a possible crisis or conflict that may arise in the region.
[1]“France’s Macron: Sale of European Strategic Infrastructure to China Was an Error”, Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/world/frances-macron-sale-european-strategic-infrastructure-china-was-an-error-2022-10-21/, (Date of Accession: 26.12.2022).
[2]“Europe’s Great Catch-Up on China”, Foreign Policy, https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/12/20/europes-great-catch-up-on-china/, (Date of Accession: 26.12.2022).
[3]“Macron Says China’s Ability to Pressure Russia Is ‘Extremely Useful'”, Financial Times, https://www.ft.com/content/bf5ec544-02c1-4108-bce7-0b1def6292a2, (Date of Accession: 26.12.2022).
[4] “Why France-US Relations Matter for the Pacific”, The Diplomat, https://thediplomat.com/2022/12/why-france-us-relations-matter-for-the-pacific/, (Date of Accession: 26.12.2022).
[5]“‘Stab in the Back’: France Hits Out at Aukus Alliance with Fears It Threatens Indo-Pacific Partnerships”, Independent, https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/france-nuclear-alliance-uk-us-australia-b1921339.html, (Date of Accession: 26.12.2022).
[6]“Joe Biden Admits US Was ‘Clumsy’ In Orchestrating AUKUS In Meet with Macron”, Republic World, https://www.republicworld.com/world-news/europe/joe-biden-admits-us-was-clumsy-in-orchestrating-aukus-in-meet-with-macron.html, (Date of Accession: 23.12.2022).
[7]“Emmanuel Macron Accuses Scott Morrison of Provoking ‘Nuclear Confrontation’ With China”, ABC, https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-17/french-macron-takes-aim-at-morrison-over-submarine-deal/101668172
[8]“China Pushes for Stronger Ties with France Ahead of Possible Macron Visit”, SCMP, https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3203939/china-pushes-stronger-ties-france-ahead-possible-macron-visit, (Date of Accession: 23.12.2022).
