The general elections held in Germany on February 23, 2025, were won by the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) – Christian Social Union (CSU) alliance under the leadership of Friedrich Merz. To form the government, CDU/CSU agreed with the German Social Democratic Party (SPD), the largest partner of the previous government, to establish a coalition government. Merz received 310 votes in the first round of the parliamentary vote on May 6, 2025, and was elected chancellor with 325 votes in the second round in the 630-seat parliament.[1]
The grand coalition formed between CDU/CSU and SPD under Friedrich Merz’s leadership took over the administration during a period of intense foreign policy agenda, with Donald Trump in power in the United States (US), escalating war in Ukraine and the Middle East, Putin and Trump growing closer, and increasing trade tensions with China. In this challenging process, the foreign ministry position was given to Johann Wadephul from the same party as Merz. Wadephul’s appointment as foreign minister indicates that security will be prioritized in foreign policy; the fact that the chancellor and the foreign ministry embrace the same political tradition shows that Germany is entering a new era in terms of foreign policy, and that in this period there is a desire to build an effective Germany in foreign policy by acting in harmony.
When evaluating the Merz-Wadephul partnership in terms of transatlantic relations, it gives the impression that the balance of continuity and change will be observed. Chancellor Merz represents the traditional Atlanticist line of the CDU and advocates establishing closer relations with the US in areas such as defense, energy, and digital. The coalition agreement included the statement “The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is the center of our security architecture” and committed to raising defense spending above 2% of the national product.[2] Outside of defense, artificial intelligence, chip production, green industry transformation, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) are areas where cooperation between the US and Germany is desired to be deepened..
Foreign Minister Wadephul, on the other hand, has been one of the names in the Atlanticist wing who approaches with a questioning stance. Wadephul, believing that Trump’s recent actions and statements are disturbing and do not reflect the relationship between true allies, has argued that Germany and Europe should place importance on strategic independence.[3] The presence of the Trump administration in the US indicates that a foreign policy in line with Wadephul will dominate transatlantic relations in the short term. In particular, the import tariff policy of the US under President Donald Trump conflicts with the Merz Government’s free trade policy and triggers a transformation in Germany-US relations.
The proximity between the Alternative for Germany (AfD) Party and the US under Donald Trump’s presidency is also influential in this approach. AfD was supported by Trump’s ally Elon Musk and US Vice President JD Vance during the campaign period. Similarly, the US reacted negatively to the domestic intelligence service’s designation of AfD as “far-right” on May 2, 2025, and the possibility of the party being banned. Supporting far-right parties and movements under Trump’s leadership gives the US the ability to directly intervene in European politics in general and German politics in particular. The statements of support for AfD also show that the US will continue its interventionist policy. This indicates that the new government will prioritize policy-making to prevent US interference in internal affairs. On the other hand, the US is Germany’s most important trading partner. In 2024, goods trade worth 252.9 billion euros was conducted between Germany and the US.[4] Therefore, the economy is the factor that limits Germany’s room for maneuver in how to manage conflicting issues with the US.
In the context of bilateral relations, importance is given to strengthening ties with France and Poland in the new period. Poland is an important country both in terms of supporting Ukraine and strengthening the eastern flank. France, considering President Macron’s vision of strategic autonomy, is an influential actor in the realization of building an independent Europe. Indeed, three days after winning the national election in February, Merz went to Paris to visit Macron; as Chancellor, he made his first foreign trip to France, followed by Poland.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and French President Emmanuel Macron agreed in their meeting to make Europe more sovereign by developing the defense of the European continent and increasing its competitiveness[5] Macron announced that a joint Defense and Security Council would be established in the summer of 2025, stating that Paris and Berlin aim to respond together to the challenges facing Europe. The two leaders decided to act jointly on providing necessary support to Ukraine against Russia and forming a common European front against the US trade war.
In the meeting between German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, the importance of ensuring the EU’s border security was emphasized; it was decided to act jointly in the fight against illegal migration. Merz stated that the Netherlands, Denmark, and Italy would act together in managing the EU’s migration policy.[6]
The Macron-Merz and Tusk-Merz meetings also show how Germany’s EU policy will be shaped in the new period. The Merz Government embraces a vision of Germany that guides and leads the EU. Chancellor Merz stated in an interview during his flight from Paris to Warsaw that Europe should be independent of the US.[7] In this context, it is understood that Germany will be active in initiatives aimed at building a strong Europe in the face of international challenges by acting jointly with its European allies in the new period.
Chancellor Merz has argued that Ukraine needs more support against Russia and has frequently criticized the Scholz Government on this issue. Similarly, Foreign Minister Wadephul has advocated supplying German Taurus cruise missiles to Kyiv. However, the noteworthy detail here is that Wadephul had adopted a stance supporting dialogue in relations with the Kremlin until February 24, 2022. Indeed, Wadephul was a member of the Petersburg Dialogue group, a formation that encouraged reconciliation between Germans and Russians during the Gerhard Schröder era[8] Therefore, when the necessary conditions are met, Germany’s new Foreign Minister Wadephul could lead the way in securing a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine War and revitalizing Russia-Germany relations.
When evaluating the Chancellor Merz period in the context of Germany’s China policy, in line with the EU’s strategic compass, Merz defines China as both a strategic competitor and an economic partner. Germany’s trade volume with China in 2024 is 246 billion euros[9] While strategies aimed at reducing this dependency are preferred, steps that would cause an economic break with China, especially initiatives that would take sides in the US-China Trade War, are avoided. In this context, it is expected that in the Merz period, Germany’s China policy will prioritize a minimum risk approach in trade relations.
Regarding the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, which is a significant issue in the Middle East, the new government is expected to take a more pro-Israel stance compared to the previous government. Indeed, Foreign Minister Wadephul has made statements to the effect that ensuring Israel’s security and supporting it with weapons closely concerns Germany’s interests. Similarly, when former Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock criticized Israel’s airstrikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, Wadephul asked the foreign minister to refrain from constantly lecturing Israel.[10] Therefore, in the new period, there is a Germany that gives more support to Israel in the Middle East.
The African continent stands out for Germany in diversifying energy supply, as can be understood from the example of the nuclear energy reactor planned to be built in Rwanda. The region is also important in terms of migration management. In this context, it is estimated that a pragmatic and interest-focused approach will be adopted towards Africa during the Merz period.
In conclusion, it is estimated that German foreign policy under Friedrich Merz’s leadership will be shaped according to the strategic necessities imposed by the international conjuncture, and an economy-focused and security-centered foreign policy approach will be adopted. In this context, it is expected that the Merz period will be dominated by an understanding that evaluates options for reconciliation with the US on the one hand, while supporting EU strategic autonomy on the other. In other words, it is thought that the Atlanticist-European balance will be observed in accordance with principled pragmatism in the new period in Germany.
[1] Madeline Chambers and Sarah Marsh, Conservative Merz elected German chancellor after initial debacle, Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/merz-fails-be-elected-chancellor-by-german-parliament-2025-05-06/, (Date Accessed: 08.05.2025).
[2] The German coalition agreement: What’s in it for Europe?, Jacques Delors Centre, https://www.delorscentre.eu/en/publications/detail/publication/the-german-coalition-agreement-whats-in-it-for-europe, (Date Accessed: 08.05.2025).
[3] Berlin gears up for Trump era as Merz picks new foreign minister, Politico, https://www.politico.eu/article/friedrich-merz-appoints-johann-wadephul-foreign-minister-germany-united-states/, (Date Accessed: 08.05.2025).
[4] The Uinted States is Germany’s Main Trading Partner, Statistisches Bundesamt, https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/Foreign-Trade/trading-partners.html, (Erişim Tarihi: 08.05.2025).
[5] Jon Henley, Merz and Macron to jumpstart Franco-German relations in ‘new push for Europe’, The Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/may/07/challenges-facing-europe-enormous-says-merz-on-first-trip-abroad, (Date Accessed: 08.05.2025).
[6] Malek Fouda, Merz vows to tackle illegal migration as he meets Donald Tusk in first trip to Poland as chancellor, Euronews, https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2025/05/08/merz-vows-to-tackle-illegal-migration-as-he-meets-donald-tusk-in-first-trip-to-poland-as-c, (Date Accessed: 08.05.2025).
[7] Friedrich Merz Seeks To Revitalize German Foreign Relations, Evrim Ağacı, https://evrimagaci.org/tpg/friedrich-merz-seeks-to-revitalize-german-foreign-relations-346057?srsltid=AfmBOoqzHo2-dO_mxIXxl0gbji11KWay8HoLeTWXWouqq7SFhrvqhp-G#google_vignette, (Date Accessed: 08.05.2025).
[8] Maria Tril, Future German Foreign Minister: Putin must understand that we are for Ukraine, https://euromaidanpress.com/2025/04/29/future-german-foreign-minister-putin-must-understand-that-we-are-for-ukraine/, (Date Accessed: 08.05.2025).
[9] Statistisches Bundesamt, Ibid.
[10] Anna Schiller, Down-to-earth military reservist Johann Wadephul is the new face of German foreign policy, NZZ, https://www.nzz.ch/english/military-reservist-takes-germanys-foreign-policy-reins-ld.1882795, (Date Accessed: 08.05.2025).
