Date:

Share:

What Could China’s Red Lines in Taiwan Be?

Similar Posts

This post is also available in: Türkçe Русский

China, in its White Paper on Taiwan published on August 10, 2022, mentions that “reunification” with the island will take place peacefully. Nevertheless, the Beijing administration also stated in the document in question that it can resort to the use of force if necessary and that it reserves the option to take all measures1. So how far do “foreign powers” ​​have to go before China resorts to the use of force in Taiwan? So what are the red lines that will lead China to use military force?

China’s Ambassador to London, Zheng Zeguang said that Britain would face serious consequences if it were to “follow in the footsteps of the United States of America (USA)” and crosses the “red lines” on Taiwan, it will face “serious consequences”.2 “Taiwan independence means war and will lead to a dead end,” Zeguang also said.3 Based on these words, it can be thought that China’s red line is Taiwan’s independence. However, the Beijing administration made similar warnings before the US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan. At that time, China’s red line was thought to be a visit to Taiwan. Despite this, Pelosi’s plane landed in Taiwan and Beijing could not do anything against it. Therefore, it has been understood that these visits are not China’s red line.

For the last few months, British Foreign Minister Liz Truss has been emphasizing the importance of taking lessons from Ukraine and providing military support to Taiwan. For example, a delegation from the British Parliament is expected to visit Taiwan in the coming months. China, on the other hand, warns that if the UK takes a step in this direction, it will face serious consequences. So China’s red line could also be political, economic, and military support for Taiwan. However, London is determined to cross these red lines of Beijing. Because Washington has done this before and has not faced any serious response. In addition, England under the protection of the USA and relying on it will make these visits.

In addition to the UK, Parliamentary delegations from Germany and France will also visit the island in the coming months. In this case, China may have to impose separate sanctions on each European country. To learn how China reacted when the “so-called” red lines were crossed, it is necessary to look at Pelosi’s reaction after her visit to Taiwan. In response to this, China introduced 8 “countermeasures” to the USA. Therefore, the Beijing administration may take some additional precautions against Europe instead of sanctions.

Economic dependency is not only for Europe; It also applies to China. Beijing will not want to lose its market in Europe so easily. In short, even if European delegations start to visit Taiwan more frequently, China will not react strongly to this and will only be content with threatening them. In addition, it will take some measures to reduce bilateral dialogue, as it did with the USA.

Another development that drew Beijing’s anger; It is the statement of the US Army’s intention to conduct exercises in order to ensure the safety of navigation in the Taiwan Strait. In response to this, China stated that it will resist “US aggression” and said, “We will respond to any action that will harm the territorial integrity and sovereignty of our country.”4 Based on these words, it can be thought that China’s red line is for the US and its allies to pass through the Taiwan Strait or to be in security circles there. However, Beijing has previously issued similar warnings to the United States and its allies regarding transit through the Taiwan Strait.

In recent years, some European states, such as Germany, have given up on passing through the strait, taking these warnings into account. But the Washington administration’s purpose to lead European states by crossing Beijing’s red lines. In this direction, the USA aims to disrupt the “de facto” situation created by China by passing through the Taiwan Strait once again, as it has done in previous years. Beijing, on the other hand, states that it will react harshly if its sovereignty is violated during this transition.

It is seen that China will have to resort to hard power in order to make these warnings of China into consideration. In the past, during Pelosi’s visit  China has made much bigger threats than this; but in the end, he did nothing. Thus, it lost its credibility and deterrence. At this point, it is not only the USA; All European powers are giving the message that they can take provocative actions on China’s near seas. Because they know that China will leave these moves unanswered. For example, when the Beijing administration did not object to Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, the USA went further and sent a delegation of senators to the island. China, on the other hand, held exercises around Taiwan in response to this visit. Moreover, by strengthen its hand once again, the USA is preparing to conduct a navigational safety exercise in the Taiwan Strait.

As can be understood, the USA strengthened its hand as it seems that China cannot respond. This is part of the US effort to suppress China and consolidate its hegemony in the Indo-Pacific. In other words, the USA should not be expected to give up on these steps. In other words, Washington does not understand soft power. Here, “What is China’s red line in Taiwan?” the question arises. China’s red lines to lead to the use of force in Taiwan could be:

  • First, visiting Taiwan is not China’s red line. This is understood. In other words, although China sees such an act as a violation of sovereignty, it does not use hard power.
  • Secondly, China says that it sees “Taiwan’s independence” as a red line.5 Therefore, if Western states, especially the USA, announced that they officially recognize Taiwan, Beijing may use force.
  • Third, if Taiwan becomes represented in international organizations, non-governmental organizations, and intergovernmental organizations in general, China can respond with hard force.
  • Fourth, if the United States and its allies maintain de facto relations with Taiwan and develop economic and military cooperation, China may use military force to prevent this. China’s red line here is to sign trade agreements with Taiwan and provide military aid to the island.
  • Fifth, if the Western powers declare that they will protect Taiwan and form a coalition for this, China may take action to unite with the island. In this sense, Beijing’s red line is Taiwan’s participation in defense alliances and coalitions.
  • Sixth, if the US violates China’s territorial waters in the Taiwan Strait, Beijing may respond with retaliation. So, China can use force. In fact, the last warning of the Chinese Ambassador to Washington is in this direction.

As a result, China’s red lines regarding Taiwan are being tested by the United States. It is not known in which field, when and how Beijing will react. If it is necessary to reach a conclusion based on the above possibilities; China’s red line in Taiwan could be the start of the United States and its allies recognizing Taiwan’s independence. But while the Western powers are developing their relations with Taiwan; it also emphasizes their commitment to the “One China Policy”. Taiwan’s further integration into the international system could pose a major threat to China’s national interests. In other words, the United States and its allies want to provoke China, push its borders, and thus force Beijing to make mistakes, by reaffirming their commitment to the “One China Policy” and at the same time improving relations with Taiwan.

[1] “Full Text: The Taiwan Question and China’s Reunification in the New Era”, Xinhua, https://english.news.cn/20220810/df9d3b8702154b34bbf1d451b99bf64a/c.html, (Date of Accession: 24.08.2022).

2 “Chinese Ambassador Warns UK Not to Cross ‘Red Lines’ over Taiwan”, The Guardian, , (Date of Accession: 24.08.2022).

3 Same link.

4 “China Doubles Down On Its Warnings; Vows To Respond To US Army Drills In Taiwan Strait”, Republic World, https://www.republicworld.com/world-news/china/china-doubles-down-on-its-warnings-vows-to-respond-to-us-army-drills-in-taiwan-strait-articleshow.html, (Date of Accession: 24.08.2022).

5 “Chinese Ambassador Warns UK Not to Cross ‘Red Lines’ over Taiwan”, a.g.e.,(Date of Accession: 24.08.2022).

Dr. Cenk TAMER
Dr. Cenk TAMER
Dr. Cenk Tamer graduated from Sakarya University, Department of International Relations in 2014. In the same year, he started his master's degree at Gazi University, Department of Middle Eastern and African Studies. In 2016, Tamer completed his master's degree with his thesis titled "Iran's Iraq Policy after 1990", started working as a Research Assistant at ANKASAM in 2017 and was accepted to Gazi University International Relations PhD Program in the same year. Tamer, whose areas of specialization are Iran, Sects, Sufism, Mahdism, Identity Politics and Asia-Pacific and who speaks English fluently, completed his PhD education at Gazi University in 2022 with his thesis titled "Identity Construction Process and Mahdism in the Islamic Republic of Iran within the Framework of Social Constructionism Theory and Securitization Approach". He is currently working as an Asia-Pacific Specialist at ANKASAM.