On the morning of February 24, 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s military intervention in Ukraine changed the regional balances and caused a tremendous global reaction, especially in European states. As a result of this reaction, Germany, the “locomotive country” of Europe, moved away from the appearance of an “economic giant” and gradually began to turn into a “military power.” The United States of America (USA) and European countries, on the one hand, seized the goods of Russia, on the other hand, started an embargo. Despite this harsh and sudden reaction, Russia’s withdrawal from Ukraine could not be achieved. In addition, the position of China, one of Russia’s essential partners, has been the subject of criticism.
An Overview of China-Ukraine Relations
Although bilateral relations went back to establishing an independent Ukraine at the end of the First World War, diplomatic contacts took place in the form of the Soviet Union – the People’s Republic of China, since Moscow controlled the country in this period. The basis of today’s relations emerged with the end of the Cold War and the establishment of Ukraine as an independent state. China recognized Ukraine, which declared its independence on August 24, 1991, 3 days later, and established diplomatic relations on January 4, 1992. The critical point in bilateral relations in the 1990s was the nuclear capacity of the Soviet era in Ukraine and the independence of the country. In this regard, China has given Ukraine security guarantees, including nuclear issues.[1]
In the 2000s, relations between the two countries intensified, leading Ukraine to accept the “One China” understanding of China.[2] China has seriously benefited from these relations, which have progressed smoothly in many respects. It also used the technical and administrative structure of the Soviet Union efficiently. In addition, it has employed and gained the advantage of many influential people in the country; benefited from Ukraine in matters such as aircraft carriers, engine purchase, and construction. While relations are going well in many respects, as a result of Russia being the rising power of the region, Ukraine’s more pro-Western policies, and Moscow’s efforts to curb this, China has become a country that demands/trying to request a multipolar world order by putting its weight on Russia’s side over time.
Fundamentals of Chinese Foreign Policy
Contemporary Chinese Foreign Policy derives its sources from the worldview of the Communist Party led by Mao Zedong 毛泽东, which foreseen that the century called the “Century of Shame” would never happen again. Foreign policy principles are included in the preamble of the Constitution. According to this: “China consistently carries out an independent foreign policy and adheres to mutual respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity, mutual nonaggression, non-interference in each other’s internal affairs, equality and mutual benefit, and peaceful coexistence, the path of peaceful development, and the reciprocal opening up strategy in developing diplomatic relations and economic and cultural exchanges with other countries. China consistently opposes imperialism, hegemonism, and colonialism works to strengthen unity with the people of other countries, supports the oppressed nations and the developing countries in their just struggle to win and preserve national independence and develop their national economies, and strives to safeguard world peace and promote the cause of human progress.”[3] The Constitution emphasizes Zhou Enlai’s Principle of Peaceful Coexistence with these statements.
Russia’s Attack on Ukraine and China’s Attitude
Russia’s attack has been a significant development for both the world and China. This war has made it very difficult for China to achieve three main goals that cannot be balanced with each other. The first is to protect the strategic partnership with Russia, the second is to adhere to the principle of territorial integrity and non-interference in internal affairs, which are among the basic principles of the Constitution and foreign policy, and the third is to minimize the sanctions and other pressures from the European Union (EU) and the USA.[4] Changing its discourse according to time and place to achieve these three incompatible goals, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs eventually put its weight in favor of Russia. In this context, China, prioritizing strengthening its strategic partnership, described Russia’s attack on Ukraine as a “crisis,” “conflict,” or “Ukrainian Problem,” not as “aggression of an independent country on the territory of another country.”
Explaining his country’s position for the first time two days after the war, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi stated that the Cold War had already ended and that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) needed to rethink its position and responsibilities. “China believes that the Cold War mentality based on group confrontation should be completely abandoned. In addition, the Chinese side supports the resumption of dialogue between NATO, the EU and Russia. In addition, it seeks to build a balanced, effective and sustainable European security mechanism to achieve long-term peace and stability on the European continent.”[5]
China also abstained from the resolution drafted in the United Nations Security Council on February 26, 2022, condemning the Russian attacks on Ukraine. With this move, it wanted to protect itself, not alienate Russia from itself, and not contradict its foreign policy principles. It maintained its abstention position in the bill condemning Russia’s attack on Ukraine, which went to the General Assembly and was accepted by the votes of 141 countries after the Security Council did not have a positive result. This diplomatic abstention, the aggravation of the economic sanctions against Russia from the West, its transformation into a global campaign, and most importantly, the pressures from the USA have brought China closer to Russia. The former US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s statement in a speech in Taiwan that Taiwan should be recognized as an independent and sovereign country caused a reaction from China.[6] Replying to this statement of Pompeo, Wang Yi said that Ukraine should not be based on one side, “but should be the bridge that connects the East and the West, and should not be the playground of the great states”.[7]
Working to minimize the pressures of the EU and the USA, China is trying to develop economic relations with European countries in particular and is trying to create a crack between the USA and Europe in general. It has been stated that sanctions are an important problem for the world, significantly. At the same time, the signs of inflationary waves and recession increase the problems for Europe, a social welfare region. On the subject, Wang Yi said, “All countries in the world are an inseparable community. Given the sluggish global economic recovery, unrestricted sanctions will undermine the stability of the international industrial chain and supply chain, aggravate the food and energy crisis. This will hurt the people’s livelihood of all countries.”[8] used expressions. As of April, China’s anti-US position has become more pronounced. In this process, the Chinese Foreign Minister said, “The United States will seriously harm the hard-won peace and development in the region by putting forward the Indo-Pacific Strategy and trying to create regional tensions. It also seeks to provoke conflicts that will seriously erode the ASEAN-based regional cooperation structure.”[9] found in the assessment. Although it is close to Russia, it is constantly stated that China is not a party to this crisis.
What Is China Trying To Do?
China’s integration into the international economic system is one of the most important reasons why China follows a two-way policy that does not oppress Russia on the one hand and calls for easing the crisis/conflict. China still attracts serious investments from international capital, mainly from Europe and the USA, and thus emerges as a significant export giant. As a result of the open support to be given directly to Russia, the Yuan may suffer the same fate as the Ruble. In addition, China, which has not yet overcome the epidemic’s effects, has not been able to solve its supply chain problems and, more importantly, has not been able to get rid of the Trump effect. This situation has also been reflected in energy prices. The costs of China, the world’s largest petrochemical consumer, have increased even more.
Another reason is China’s foreign policy understanding of independence, territorial integrity, and refusal to interfere in internal affairs. Russia’s punitive activities against another country create serious problems regarding China’s basic principles. Because the countries with which China has the most intense political relations are the Third World Countries and Latin American and African countries, which were also members of the Non-Aligned Movement in the past. Against this attitude of Russia, China’s statements of support may put itself in a difficult situation. Instead, it may try to take advantage of the public opinion of these countries against the American/Western case by viewing the war as “the mixing of sensitive places by US-led Western forces” rather than Russian aggression. However, the main reason behind China’s attitude is the strategic culture it has created.
Strategic Culture
Although Russia is a “disruptive power” that uses violence disproportionately, and China is described as a “recovering and founding power”[10] the situation is much different than what is said. The political culture of these two states demands “self-centered hegemony” as in the past empires; It is not to refrain from using violence or to be a founder-destroyer but to create a strategic framework suitable for time and place. This strategic framework is a consensus on which method (hard or soft power) will deliver long-term returns internally and externally. This return for Russia has recently come to the fore as hard power. Because, on the one hand, the country has a long-term population problem, and on the other hand, its wealth is indispensable to the world.
China wants to be the power that balances the environment that will occur at the war’s end. For this reason, it is not the one who prefers one of the two parties, but it wants a result that both parties want it to choose, and in the end, it wins. This result is the beginning of a history in which everyone lost in Ukraine that one of the areas of conflict between East and West, the northern line of the Belt-Road Project, has been secured, with the protracted war between Europe and the USA, strategic differences began to occur, and Russia lost even more power with the war in the long run. Because China is ”too big to ignore, too old to belittle, too weak to appease, too ambitious to underestimate.”[11]
[1] “双边回顾”, China Embassy, https://web.archive.org/web/20150215092942/http://ua.china-embassy.org/chn/zwgx/shbgxhg/t141518.htm, (Date of Accession: 18.06.2022).
[2] “中乌就乌克兰外长兹连科访华发表联合新闻公报”, China News, https://www.chinanews.com.cn/2002-01-31/26/159193.html, (Date of Accession: 18.06.2022).
[3] “中华人民共和国宪法”.
[4] “China Faces Irreconcilable Choices on Ukraine”, Carnegie Endowment, https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/02/24/china-faces-irreconcilable-choices-on-ukraine-pub-86515, (Date of Accession: 18.06.2022).
[5] “王毅同德国外长贝尔伯克通电话”, Gov.cn, http://www.gov.cn/guowuyuan/2022-02/27/content_5675924.htm, (Date of Accession: 18.06.2022).
[6] “US should recognise Taiwan, former top diplomat Pompeo says”, Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/us-should-recognise-taiwan-former-top-diplomat-pompeo-says-2022-03-04/, (Date of Accession: 19.06.2022).
[7] “巴基斯坦总理伊姆兰·汗会见王毅, Mfa.gov.cn, https://www.mfa.gov.cn/wjbzhd/202203/t20220323_10654450.shtml, (Date of Accession: 19.06.2022).
[8] “王毅同法国外长勒德里昂举行视频会晤”, FMPCR, https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/wjdt_674879/gjldrhd_674881/202203/t20220310_10650611.shtml, (Date of Accession: 19.06.2022).
[9] “王毅同越南外长裴青山通电话”, FMPCR, https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/wjdt_674879/gjldrhd_674881/202204/t20220414_10668069.shtml, (Date of Accession: 19.06.2022).
[10] Mustafa Cem Koyuncu, “Çin Ukrayna Krizi’nin Neresinde?”, ANKASAM, https://www.ankasam.org/cin-ukrayna-krizinin-neresinde/, (Date of Accession: 19.06.2022).
[11] Zbigniew Brzezinski, The Geostrategic Triad: Living with China, Europe, and Russia, CSIS, 2001, s. 2.
