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Actor Based Analysis of the Trump-Putin Summit

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The historic Helsinki Summit between the President of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin and the President of the United States of America, Donald Trump has been concluded after two closed-door gathering and one press opportunity. Yet, the outcome of the summit is still being echoed since the one-hour long press conference included key clues of what was deliberated in chambers.

In this context, it is acceptable to state that the “panic”, “worry”, “anger”, “frustration” and “new quest” expressed by power centres/countries such as; the European Union, Germany, United Kingdom of Greater Britain and Northern Ireland, Iran as well as China is ought to expedite and escalate. Thus, the Helsinki Summit marks a new period and has contributed to the process by “deepening” and “widening” the uncertainty around the world. Perceptibly, a quest for reconstructing the existing equipoise-equation has begun.

This development is equivalent to shuffling the cards in a manner similar to the system of complex alliances that came to the fore in the process leading to the First World War. It is apparent that this overly lubricious and elusive alliance which is visualised as a necessity of realist policy will not contribute to world peace. Hence what intentions do actors, especially the US and Russia have and what consequences could it provoke? For this, it is fundamental to briefly analyse the process from the perspective of the actors in question.

The US-Russia Dimension…

Certainly, the new strategy implemented by Washington is relevant to this process. Moreover, with Trump the US has become unpredictable. On the other hand, with Trump the “uncertainty strategy” adopted by the US is equivalent to is power vulnerability or at least leads to such perception.

Up until yesterday, the US which aspired to institute a global hegemonic power by itself, has once again declared its search for a partner in Helsinki. This pursuit had become apparent in the last days of the Bush administration, further developed by Obama and matured with Trump.

By this means, it is worth mentioning that the US has yet to achieve the desired result in its pursuance for cohort between China and the Russian Federation regarding a controlled dipole or multipolar process.  So, what is the US still striving for?

Herein five main goals of the US confront us: 1) Partitioning of the anti-US bloc within itself; 2) Isolating and encircling China. (In view of this, adding the Turkish-Russia-Iranian triad to its rank is vital); 3) Reorganising and consolidating influence over its own bloc by the means of an “opposing cabal”; 4) Actualising the Greater Israel Project; 5) Enacting the new Yalta Order.

Therefore, to succeed three actors; namely Russia, Turkey and Iran are vital to US interests. However, this also deciphers the idea of pacifying and drawing Iran into its axis by the means of approaching Turkey and endowing relations with Russia. The ignorance of the Russian threat —which has escalated with the Crimean-East Ukraine conflict— by the US and Trump shying away from criticising/warning Russia supports the above-mentioned determination.

Herein, it is vital to emphasise that Russia, under current circumstances is the most ideal and appropriate partner for the US. As a matter of fact, there is no other option since China rejected the same proposal during Obama’s last term.

Russia (if the situation is true) will occasionally be in the spotlight as an actor of the “Greater Israel Project-GIP”. In this case, the US will achieve a new milestone in its “Greater Middle East Project-GMEP” that it has put into practice in line with GIP. Given the recent traffic between Russia and Israel, the agenda of these rounds is more or less known. At the very least, the absence of Russia in the Astana Rounds will factually terminate the process.

Thereby, the summit in question has two exultant victors: Russia and Israel. It is understood that the US which prioritises Israel’s security has successfully added Russia to this endeavour.

On the other hand, Russia which has built its reputation based on “anti-US” and “brute force” and thus became a centre of attraction seems to have made gains too. However, this privilege can be easily consummated. A serious miscalculation could lead to mislaying Turkey and Iran as well as the European Union and the UK, causing Russia to be a problematic actor!

The EU-UK Dimension…

First, with the Helsinki Summit, the gap between the US and EU ha gotten deeper. Trump’s depiction of Germany and the EU as “occupied, captive, hostile state” reveals the current atmosphere in transatlantic relations.

The UK, which itself is in the process of leaving the EU and is trying to establish closer links with the US is chafed of the process and could pursue a more deliberate approach. The recent “reversal” in the Brexit process is probably due this actualisation. Therefore, reactions to Trump could lead to a cohesive European front or push the EU to forge closer ties with Russia.

To put it more concretely, the actors have three options available to them: 1) Making a choice between the US and Russia; 2) Verging another actor such as China; 3) Putting an end to the hostilities among them and instituting their power centre as soon as possible.

The Turkish Dimension…

The search for reconciliation between Trump and Putin could reduce the “preference” pressure for Turkey for a while. However, it could have more grave consequences too, since it is yet unknown how the two have shared the Middle-East. Moreover, the point that needs special attention is of course this undisclosed part. Nonetheless, if the situation is as it is, then a new era in Turkey-Russia-Iran relations is about to begin.

Prof. Dr. Mehmet Seyfettin EROL
Prof. Dr. Mehmet Seyfettin EROL
Born in 1969, Dörtyol-Hatay, Prof. Dr. Mehmet Seyfettin Erol graduated from Boğaziçi University (BU), Department of Political Science and International Relations in 1993. After completing his master's degree at BU in 1995, Erol was accepted to the PhD program at BU in the same year. After completing his PhD at Ankara University in 2005, Erol became an associate professor in the field of “International Relations” in 2009 and a professor in 2014. Erol worked at the Eurasian Center for Strategic Studies (ASAM) between 2000 and 2006 and and served as the General Coordinator of ASAM for a period. In 2009, he served as also Founding Chairman and Board Member of the Institute for Strategic Thinking (SDE). He is also the Founding President of the Center for International Strategy and Security Studies (USGAM) and the President of the International Relations Institute of the New Türkiye Strategic Research Center (YTSAM). Prof. Erol has also served as the Director of Gazi University Strategic Research Center (GAZISAM). In 2007, Prof. Erol received the “Turkish World Service Award” from the Writers and Artists Foundation of the Turkic World (TÜRKSAV), and has received numerous awards for his academic work and his activities in the media. Some of them can be listed as follows: 2013 “Print Media of the Year Award” by the Association of Contemporary Democrats, 2015 “APM 10th Year Service Award”, “2015 Press-Intellectual of the Year Award” by the Writers' Union of Türkiye (YTB), “2016 Volunteer Ambassadors Media Honor Award” by the Anatolian Village Guards and Martyrs' Families, “2016 Türkiye Honor Award” by the Yoruk Turkmen Federations. Prof. Erol has 15 book studies. The names of some of them are as follows: “The United States of Turks from Dream to Reality”, “Türkiye-EU Relations: Foreign Policy and Internal Structure Problems”, “The New Great Game in Eurasia”, “The Search for Strategy in Turkish Foreign Policy”, “The Search for Security in Turkish Foreign Policy”, “The Republic of Türkiye-Russian Federation Relations”, “The Cold Organization of Hot Peace: The New NATO”, “Theoretical Approaches in Foreign Policy Analysis: The Case of Turkish Foreign Policy”, “Crises and Crisis Management: Actors and Case Studies”, “Kazakhstan” and “Current Issues in International Relations”. Since 2002, Prof. Erol, who has carried out radio programs such as “Eurasia Agenda”, “Strategic Perspective”, “Global Perspective”, “Analysis”, “File”, “News Desk”, “The Other Side of the Agenda” on TRT Türkiye's voice and TRT Radio 1 (Ankara Radio), made the programs “Arayış” on TRT INT television between 2004-2007, “Beyond the Border” on Kanal A television between 2007-2010 and “Foreign Policy Agenda” on BBN TÜRK television in 2020-2021. Prof. Erol, whose foreign policy column “Arayış” was published in Milli Gazete between 2012-2018, is consulted for his expertise in numerous national and international media outlets such as television, radio, newspapers, news websites and magazines. Prof. Erol, who also taught at Gazi University Department of International Relations and Ankara University Latin American Studies Center (LAMER) between 2006-2018, has been continuing his academic career as a faculty member at Ankara Hacı Bayram Veli University Department of International Relations since 2018. Since 2006, Prof. Erol has also taught in the Department of Political Science and International Relations at Ufuk University. The main areas of interest and expertise of Prof. Erol and the titles of his courses at the undergraduate, master's and doctoral levels in this area are as follows: “Geopolitics”, “Security”, “Intelligence”, “Crisis Management”, “Current Issues in International Relations”, “Turkish Foreign Policy”, “Russian Foreign Policy”, “US Foreign Policy” and “Central Asia and South Asia”. Prof. Erol, whose articles-evaluations have been published in many journals and newspapers, has been editor of academic journals such as “Eurasia File”, “Strategic Analysis”, “Strategic Thinking”, “Gazi Regional Studies”, “The Journal of SSPS”, “Black Sea Studies”. He is currently in the editorial boards of “Regional Studies,” “International Crisis and Political Research,” “Gazi Academic View”, “Ege University Turkish World Surveys”, “Ankara International Social Sciences”, “Democracy Platform”. Prof. Erol, who has been working as the Founding President of the Ankara Center for Crisis and Political Studies (ANKASAM) since 2016, is married and has three children.