The Taliban, which took control of Kabul on August 15, 2021, has been the absolute sovereign power of Afghanistan as of August 31, 2021, when the United States (US) and its allies withdrew. However, the problem of recognition of the Taliban administration remains, which makes it difficult for the Taliban to attract investment in the country. Accordingly, the economic problems in the country deepen and the employment problem facilitates the recruitment of terrorist organizations.
At this point, it is known that the main terrorist organization operating in Afghanistan is the so-called Emirate of Khorasan (ISKP) of the State of Iraq and Sham (DEAS). Because many radical groups operating in Central Asia and South Asia declared their allegiance to DAESH in parallel with the organization’s claim to global caliphate during the period when DEASH dominated Syria and Iraq. Afghanistan, which had a power vacuum due to the withdrawal of the USA after the defeat of DAESH in Syria and Iraq, became a country that the organization tried to turn into a living space.
Although the Taliban administration, which is aware of the security risks posed by the situation in question, has taken a determined stance in the fight against DAESH, the Western World, especially the USA, are expressing their concerns that Afghanistan may become a safe haven for terrorist organizations again. Despite this, the Taliban are trying to break the influence of the terrorist organization in question by organizing point-and-shoot operations against DAESH elements, both in an effort to show that it distances itself from terrorism and in order to overcome the recognition problem. As a matter of fact, in the news dated April 25, 2023, it was announced that the Taliban attacked the Kabul Airport in August 2021 and neutralized the terrorists targeting the American elements.[1]
In such an environment, the US’s return to Afghanistan in the context of the alleged fight against DAESH, as in the case of Iraq, was opened to discussion. As a matter of fact, the statement of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken in March 2023 that they expect a new authorization law focused on the needs of the USA and with a suitable purpose in case the 2001 Military Force Authorization Act is repealed has been interpreted as a harbinger of this.[2] Undoubtedly, the US’s recourse to the option of total intervention in Afghanistan will be evaluated by the Taliban as a violation of the country’s sovereignty and independence. Therefore, this will mean a war in which the Taliban will be overthrown by returning to 2001 conditions beyond the fight against DAESH. However, the goals of the USA and the point Blinken points out are very different.
First of all, it should be noted that; When the USA returned to Iraq with the claim of fighting DAESH, there was a government in Baghdad that it recognized and cooperated with in the fight against terrorism. Therefore, there is no significant similarity between the two countries. The Taliban is not recognized by the United States, and a scenario where the Taliban’s consent is not obtained for such operations could lead to war. But the United States does not want war in Afghanistan. Because the White House administration focuses on besieging China, its main rival in the global power struggle. In other words, there is a USA that has focused on the transition from land domination to maritime dominance. Therefore, rather than the heart; It is possible to talk about a Washington administration that focuses on the border zone and in this context, Asia-Pacific.
Just at this stage, it is necessary to return to the expression of a need-oriented and appropriate-purpose new draft law in the new authority draft that Blinken voiced in the context of Afghanistan. Because, in the subtext of this statement, there is an expectation that the necessary legal basis will be created for a fight in which the USA will continue its air operations in the fight against DAESH, and especially unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) attacks.
On the other hand, it is known that the U.S. drone operations using Pakistani airspace are also considered by the Taliban as a violation of Afghanistan’s sovereignty and therefore the Doha Agreement dated February 29, 2020. For this reason, the USA needs to create an environment similar to the Iraq example in the fight against DAESH in Afghanistan. In other words, the USA has to cooperate with the Taliban against DAESH, even though it does not recognize it. Otherwise, it may become a party to a war that it will have to wage directly through the fight against DAESH. However, the Taliban already takes a determined stance in the fight against DAESH.
At a time when these options were being discussed, it is noteworthy that in the secret documents leaked from the Pentagon, the claim that the USA was trying to take advantage of the Taliban to fight against DAESH came to the fore. As a matter of fact, a senior US official speaking to the Washington Post newspaper stated that the terrorist organization DAESH is the natural enemy of the USA and that’s why the Washington administration decided to cooperate with the Taliban.[3] The claim in question is noteworthy because it is the most rational option for the United States to protect regional interests while trying to achieve its global goals. However, this situation seems to confront the USA with a new dilemma.
Undoubtedly, Washington’s most important paradox will emerge at the point of recognition of the Taliban. Because the US wants the Taliban to form a government that will include all identity groups in Afghanistan. The Taliban, on the other hand, argues that the government they established already has an inclusive structure. Although the US has expressed the demand for inclusive government as a prerequisite for the recognition of the Taliban, the partnership in the fight against terrorism will push the Taliban to higher expectations in terms of recognition on the grounds that they act in accordance with the Doha Treaty. This will accelerate the recognition debate. As a matter of fact, although it is just the beginning of the process, claims that the issue of recognizing the Taliban will be discussed at the United Nations meeting on 1-2 May 2023 has come to the fore. These allegations were denied by the US[4] however, it is obvious that the Taliban have an expectation in this regard. Therefore, despite the cooperation to be carried out in the fight against the terrorist organization DAESH, the non-recognition of the Taliban is likely to turn into a serious test for the United States over time.
[1] “مقامات امریکایی: طالبان مغز متفکر حمله انتحاری بر نیروهای امریکایی در کابل را کشتند”, AFINTL, https://www.afintl.com/202304259794, (Date of Accession: 26.04.2023).
[2] “ABD Dışişleri Bakanı Blinken’dan, Kongreye Yeni Askeri Güç Kullanma Yetki Talebi”, TRT Haber, https://www.trthaber.com/haber/dunya/abd-disisleri-bakani-blinkendan-kongreye-yeni-askeri-guc-kullanma-yetki-talebi-755119.html, (Date of Accession: 26.04.2023).
[3] “US Using Afghan Taliban to Fight ISIS in Afghanistan, Says Leaked Pentagon Document”, Firstpost, https://www.firstpost.com/world/us-using-afghan-taliban-to-fight-isis-in-afghanistan-says-leaked-pentagon-document-12501822.html, (Date of Accession: 26.04.2023).
[4] “UN Chief to Host Meeting on Afghanistan on May 1 and 2 in Doha”, News Drum, https://www.newsdrum.in/international/un-chief-to-host-meeting-on-afghanistan-on-may-1-and-2-in-doha, (Date of Accession: 26.04.2023).
