On February 24, 2022, Russia started its military intervention against Ukraine.[1] In this context, Moscow planned to enter Kiev in a very short time and end the war quickly. This caused the war to be seen as “a war that will end quickly and weaken the West” in the eyes of China. However, the process did not proceed in this way. The prolongation of the war and Moscow’s inability to achieve the desired results in the field led to the increase in the support of the European Union (EU) countries to the United States (USA) and the consolidation of the West.
As a matter of fact, the EU’s heavy sanctions against Russia due to the war,[2] the USA and Europe’s implementation of a policy to isolate Moscow, and the membership application of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) of states such as Sweden and Finland that maintained their neutrality status for many years[3] has strengthened the West even more. In short, a conjuncture emerged in which the exact opposite of the results Beijing expected from the war was experienced.
It has been observed that China has been adversely affected by the global economic problems caused by the war, due to both its trade volume with EU countries and the USA, and its position at the top of the global supply chain.
On the other hand, China strongly advocates the “One China Principle” in order to maintain its sovereignty over Taiwan as well as other autonomous and privately administered regions. In response, Russia has annexed Ukraine’s Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporozhye regions, violating international law.[4] China’s support for Russia in such an environment may cause its own “One China Principle” to be opened for discussion. For this reason, it is possible to say that the Beijing administration withdrew its support to Moscow at the beginning of the war.
In addition to all these, Chinese President Xi Jinping went to Moscow for the first time since the start of the war. During the visit, which took place between 20-23 February 2023, Xi met with Russian President Vladimir Putin.[5] The visit was interpreted as Beijing’s support for Moscow. Because it can be said that Putin and Xi gave an important message of unity during the meeting. It is also very important that this meeting is the first visit at the level of heads of state after the start of the war. Of course, it could be argued that this is an important message of cooperation.
As a matter of fact, it is remarkable that after the bilateral meetings, Xi said to Putin, “The world is witnessing changes that it has not witnessed in a hundred years, and we are the ones who carry out these changes together.”[6] Stating that he is happy to be in Moscow, Xi said that Russia and China are two friendly countries.[7] At the same time, this visit is the first overseas visit of Xi after starting his third term. Undoubtedly, the visit to Russia is important in terms of showing the general trend in China’s foreign policy.
In line with all this information, it can be predicted that China will increase its support to Russia in the future. However, this situation may lead Beijing to open relations with Western states. Because Washington, NATO and EU member actors may increase their pressure on Beijing both in the Taiwan Issue and in the South China Sea. China’s visit to such a visit at the expense of the West and giving messages that openly support Russia can also be interpreted as an indication that it will accelerate its steps towards unification with Taiwan.
[1] “Ukraine in Maps: Tracking the War with Russia”, British Broadcasting Corporation News, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60506682, (Date of Accession: 28.03.2023).
[2] “EU Trade Sanctions in Response to Situation in Ukraine”, An Roinn Fiontar, Tradala aguş Fostaiochta Department of Enterprise, Trade and Employment, https://bit.ly/3Km5pip, (Date of Accession: 31.03.2023).
[3] “Secretary General in Stockholm: Time to Welcome Finland and Sweden as NATO Allies”, North Atlantic Treaty Organization, https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_212488.htm, (Date of Accession: 28.03.2023).
[4] “Russia’s Great Game: Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporozhye and Kherson Are Now Part of The Russian Federation”, Modern Diplomacy, https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2022/10/01/russias-great-game-donetsk-lugansk-zaporozhye-and-kherson-are-now-part-of-the-russian-federation/, (Date of Accession: 28.03.2023).
[5] “China’s Xi Stresses Close Ties with ‘Dear Friend’ Putin During His First Visit to Russia Since Ukraine Invasion”, Cable News Network, https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/20/europe/xi-putin-china-russia-visit-monday-intl-hnk/index.html, (Date of Accession: 28.03.2023).
[6] “As Xi and Putin Bid Farewell in Moscow, Russia Unleashed Missiles on Ukraine”, The Sydney Morning Herald, https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/we-are-driving-changes-in-the-world-together-xi-jinping-tells-vladimir-putin-as-he-departs-kremlin-20230323-p5cuio.html, (Date of Accession: 28.03.2023).
[7] “China Calls Xi’s Russia Visit One of Friendship, Peace”, Associated Press News, https://apnews.com/article/china-russia-putin-xi-us-ukraine-war-fcfd22eb1f48b3de6f115c2943c77169, (Date of Accession: 28.03.2023).
