During the early stages of the Russia-Ukraine war, European governments severed ties with Moscow by adhering to sanctions decisions made within the framework of the European Union (EU). As a result of the increasing tension between the parties, Europe has turned to alternative sources of energy supply and security. One of the most remarkable developments in this process is the increasing energy-based cooperation between Europe and Central Asia.
The routes that Europe can use to reach Central Asia are quite limited. In particular, the Middle Corridor offers the shortest and least costly route to Europe at this point. Because, over the past thirty years, agreements and studies have resulted in a ready infrastructure along the route. For European states developing strategies for Central Asia, one of the most critical countries on the route is Azerbaijan. Because Azerbaijan is of vital importance both in terms of energy resources and geopolitical location.
In this context, Azerbaijani oil is primarily sent to Europe via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) Pipeline. Furthermore, Azerbaijan and the EU reached certain agreements in 2011 regarding the Southern Gas Corridor. In this context, Azerbaijani natural gas is planned to be transported to Europe through the Trans Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline (TANAP), the South Caucasus Pipeline (SCP) and the Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP).[1]
On the other hand, Azerbaijan, as a country located in the west of the Caspian, has important relations with Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan in the east of the Caspian. First of all, a significant amount of transit transportation activities are carried out through ports such as Alat (Azerbaijan), Aktau and Kurik (Kazakhstan) and Turkmenbashi (Turkmenistan). In addition, the parties are increasing the capacity of these ports within the scope of their developing cooperation and increasing economic relations.
Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan have important underground resources. For example, Turkmenistan is the fourth richest country in the world in terms of gas reserves. It is known that Kazakhstan has important oil resources. A significant part of Turkmenistan’s natural gas and Kazakhstan’s oil resources are in the Caspian basin. So, the cost of transferring Central Asian underground resources to Europe is reduced. It may be claimed that the energy resources of Central Asia, which can be provided at low cost, have grown in importance for Europe at a time when global market instability is rising.
At this point, Azerbaijan’s geopolitical, geostrategic, and geoeconomic importance is growing for Europe to have access to these resources. There is also a dramatic shift in European states’ attitudes toward the Caucasus, as they turn to Azerbaijan within the framework of their interests.
For many years, Europe followed a pro-Armenian policy in the Caucasus. In particular, in Europe, it is difficult to say that there is a significant voice against the occupation of Karabakh by Armenia in violation of international law. Countries such as France have adopted an attitude that allows the deepening of conflicts and crises in the region. Because the Karabakh conflict, which the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Minsk Group had failed to resolve or refused to resolve for over 30 years, had turned into a frozen conflict. France, on the other side, backed the deadlock as a member of the Minsk Group.
The transformation in world politics and the dynamics in Eurasia has led countries to change their policies. In particular, the new balances have shown that all conflict zones have become unsustainable for states. Due to the Russia-Ukraine War, Europe’s eastern connection with Asia was severed. The conflict in question has shifted Europe’s priorities.
In the period before the Russia-Ukraine War, the Second Karabakh War, which began due to Armenia’s aggressive attitude and was concluded in compliance with international law by Azerbaijan, shifted the balance in the Caucasus from a European perspective. Azerbaijan used military force due to Armenia’s refusal to agree for 30 years and provided the necessary environment for the establishment of peace, stability and cooperation in the Caucasus. Europe, which did not oppose the violation of international law in the Caucasus for a while, entered the process of rapprochement with Baku after the victory of Azerbaijan. During the war in the east, stability on the line stretching from the Balkans to the Caucasus gained critical importance for Europe. At this point, Europe started to follow a policy of opening up to Asia from the southeast, that is, through the Balkans.
While there is a significant change towards Azerbaijan in the whole of Europe and the EU, France continues to make decisions that will harm international politics and the Azerbaijan-Armenia normalization process. The tension in the relations between the two countries is increasing day by day.[2] On the other hand, the Paris administration has significant investments in Central Asia. France has a 17 billion dollar investment in Kazakhstan alone, and several companies operate in the region. France’s peace-destroying tactics in the Caucasus, as well as moves that jeopardize the normalization process, would undermine both its interests and those of Europe.
In conclusion, the normalization process that started with the victory of Azerbaijan in the Caucasus has created a suitable ground for Europe to develop a policy towards the Balkans, the Caucasus, the Caspian, and Central Asia. In addition, with the Russia-Ukraine War, the disconnection of Europe from the east with Asia led the USA to the Caucasus. In this process, especially Azerbaijan has increased its importance in the eyes of the EU thanks to its presence in the Caucasus, its energy resources and the connection it has established with Central Asia via the Caspian Sea. For this reason, there are changes in the EU’s policy towards Azerbaijan and Baku is becoming an epicenter for the EU’s opening to Central Asia.
[1] “TANAP”, TANAP, https://www.tanap.com/tanap-projesi, (Date of Accession: 08.12.2022).
[2] Ismi Aghayev, “French Parliament Calls for Government to Consider Sanctions Against Azerbaijan”, OC Media, https://oc-media.org/french-parliament-calls-for-government-to-consider-sanctions-against-azerbaijan/, (Date of Accession: 08.12.2022).
