At the January 2026 Davos Summit, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney warned that the world has entered an “era of great power competition.”[1] Two days later, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz echoed this sentiment, describing the current global landscape as a “new world” increasingly defined by power and coercion.[2] While avoiding explicit mention, both leaders were clearly responding to Donald Trump’s recent policy shifts. Their addresses at Davos offer critical insights into contemporary international dynamics. Drawing upon these remarks and the aforementioned sources, this article presents a series of observations and forecasts.
Donald Trump’s presidency caused a significant rupture in Canada-US relations. Following Carney’s remarks at Davos, Trump labeled him a “Governor” and threatened 100% tariffs in response to Canada’s trade agreement with China, recalling his earlier suggestion of making Canada the “51st state.”[3] Trump’s disruptive policies are driving Western allies, notably the UK and France, to reconsider their relations with China. While these nations previously aligned with US warnings against China, they are now pivoting toward potential cooperation. Echoing Carney and Merz, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer signaled a challenge to American hegemony by vowing not to “yield to Trump.”[4] Similarly, French President Emmanuel Macron emphasized a preference for “respect over bullying” at Davos,[5] suggesting that France may prioritize partnerships with actors like China over a confrontational US-led approach.
Western powers, including Canada, Germany, France, and the UK, are increasingly challenging US hegemony while signaling a move toward collective action. A central theme shared by German and Canadian leadership is that the world has moved beyond a mere transition into what Mark Carney describes as a definitive “rupture.” Carney argues that middle powers must now act in unison because the multilateral institutions they once relied upon face existential threats. In response, Merz has urged Europe and its like-minded partners to unite and invest heavily in defense. These stances are largely a reaction to the current trajectory of US policy. As American influence is eroded by Russia and China, the rules-based international order is fracturing, creating a landscape where the strong exert their will while the weak face the consequences. As Carney concludes, when rules no longer protect you, you must protect yourself.
The UN Security Council, despite its mandate to uphold global peace, has largely become an ineffective body. As both the United States and Russia bypass international legal norms, global stability is fading, leaving middle powers with little choice but to act in unison. This shift brings us to Mark Carney’s warning: “If you are not at the table, you are on the menu.” The reality that Europe now finds itself on the “U.S. menu” amidst this great power rivalry marks a fundamental systemic break, a trend further highlighted by Canada’s move toward a strategic partnership with China. Ultimately, even traditional Western allies are now scouting for new openings to cooperate with both Russia and China.
Trump’s policies, which have effectively undermined the Western alliance from within, are forcing Europe to establish itself as an independent actor in the international system. As the pressure to “choose sides” intensifies, the traditional strategy of balancing between great powers is becoming harder to sustain. In this environment, Mark Carney suggests that terms like “mutual benefit” and “integration” have become synonymous with submission to major powers. The U.S. often leverages economic interdependence within the liberal-capitalist order to demand compliance from its allies, with the Greenland Crisis serving as a primary example. When Trump threatened the European Union (EU) with high tariffs, Brussels responded in kind by threatening to scrap trade agreements, a standoff that ultimately pushed the negotiations over Greenland into entirely different sectors.
Trump is most clearly defined by his mercantilist foreign policy, which often treats diplomacy as a form of open bargaining. This approach leaves allies with little choice but to offer concessions to influence his decisions. Yet, when directed at Europe, these transactional tactics weaken the West from within, directly challenging a region that has consented to American hegemony for decades.
The choices made by Europe’s leading powers will likely define the future of global competition. The real test is how the UK, France, and Germany choose to recalibrate their stance toward the United States. Seeing an opening, China is already moving to strengthen its presence across the continent. As these traditional allies drift further from the United States, the strategic case for partnering with China becomes increasingly hard to dismiss.
[1] “Read Mark Carney’s full speech on middle powers navigating a rapidly changing world”, CBC, https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/mark-carney-speech-davos-rules-based-order-9.7053350, (Date Accessed: 26.01.2026).
[2] “World is entering time of ‘great power politics’, warns German chancellor”, The Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/jan/22/friedrich-merz-german-chancellor-speech-davos-world-economic-forum, (Date Accessed: 26.01.2026); “Davos: Germany’s Merz says old world order ‘unraveling’”, Dw, https://www.dw.com/en/davos-germanys-merz-says-old-world-order-unraveling/a-75606240, (Date Accessed: 26.01.2026).
[3] “Trump threatens ‘Governor Carney’ with tariffs over China trade deal”, Timescolonist, https://www.timescolonist.com/the-mix/trump-threatens-governor-carney-with-tariffs-over-china-trade-deal-11785438, (Date Accessed: 26.01.2026).
[4] “UK’s Starmer: I will not yield to Donald Trump”, Politico, https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-keir-starmer-will-not-yield-to-donald-trump-greenland/, (Date Accessed: 26.01.2025).
[5] “We prefer respect over bullies, Macron says at Davos as Trump tensions mount”, Euronews, https://www.euronews.com/2026/01/20/we-do-prefer-respect-to-bullies-macron-says-at-davos-as-trump-tensions-mount, (Date Accessed: 26.01.2025).
