Relations between the United States (U.S.) and Cuba have long been shaped by sanctions, ideological rivalry, and security disputes. Recent developments, however, indicate that tensions between the two countries have reached a new level. The meeting held in Havana between Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Director John Ratcliffe and Cuban officials reveals that Washington is attempting to simultaneously implement both a strategy of pressure and one of controlled dialogue in its policy toward Cuba. However, the preparation of legal proceedings against Cuba’s former leader, Raúl Castro, during the same period suggests that tensions in the relationship could rise again.
The U.S. renewal of its $100 million aid offer to Cuba is initially viewed as a humanitarian initiative. However, the Washington administration’s desire to distribute the aid through the Catholic Church and independent organizations rather than the Cuban government indicates that this aid is also seen as a political tool. The U.S. administration does not aim to undermine the Cuban government’s legitimacy by removing the aid mechanism from the direct control of the state apparatus. This approach can be seen as a continuation of the “humanitarian pressure diplomacy” methods the U.S. has employed in various countries since the post-Cold War era.
The Cuban side, however, argues that the root cause of the problem is not a lack of aid, but rather the energy and economic embargo imposed by the United States.[i] President Miguel Diaz-Canel has stated that Washington must ease sanctions before offering aid. In particular, the pressure exerted by the oil embargo on the country’s economy has reached a critical level in recent months. The depletion of diesel and fuel oil stocks has caused serious damage to the power generation system. As a result, prolonged power outages have occurred across the country.
The deepening energy crisis is directly affecting not only the economic sphere but also social life. It is reported that hospitals are unable to operate at full capacity, and schools and some public institutions have been temporarily closed. In an economy based on central planning, such as Cuba’s, disruptions in the energy infrastructure lead to a domino effect on all public services. This situation is causing significant dissatisfaction among the public in their daily lives.
The emergence of protests in various regions, particularly in Havana, over the past few weeks indicates that economic hardship is beginning to yield political consequences. Hundreds of people took to the streets due to power outages, blocking roads and chanting anti-government slogans. These demonstrations have been described as one of the most notable social movements in Cuba since the 2021 protests. The prominence of the “turn on the lights” slogan, in particular, indicates that the protests stem directly from living conditions.
The Washington administration, meanwhile, has stated that it wants to prevent Cuba from serving as a “safe haven” in the Western Hemisphere. It was reported that during CIA Director Ratcliffe’s visit to Havana, issues related to security cooperation, economic stability, and intelligence were discussed. From the U.S. perspective, the issue is not merely Cuba’s internal situation. Washington is also taking into account the growing influence of actors such as China, Russia, and Iran in the Caribbean. For this reason, Cuba’s complete collapse or its transformation into a sphere of influence for rival powers is viewed as a strategic risk by the U.S.[ii]
It has drawn attention that Washington is preparing legal proceedings against Raúl Castro while simultaneously engaging in dialogue with Havana. The downing of two planes belonging to the organization “Brothers to the Rescue” by Cuban fighter jets in 1996, resulting in the deaths of four people, has been a subject of debate in the U.S. for many years. The current move to prepare charges against Raúl Castro in connection with this incident is viewed not only as a legal but also as a political message.
This development is seen as a continuation of the tougher Cuba policy that resurfaced during the Donald Trump administration. The Trump administration, particularly in its second term, has adopted a more aggressive approach toward left-wing governments in Latin America. Tariff threats against countries supplying oil to Cuba are also part of this strategy. In particular, the decline in oil flows from Venezuela and Mexico is further exacerbating the energy crisis in Cuba.
The Cuban government, meanwhile, characterizes U.S. sanctions as an “economic war.”[iii] Foreign Minister Bruno Rodriguez has stated that the policies implemented by Washington are illegal and malicious. According to the Havana government, the U.S. has sought to increase political pressure by tightening the embargo on one hand while offering aid on the other. For this reason, it appears that the aid proposal has not been received entirely positively by the Cuban public.
A stance that does not entirely reject the U.S. aid offer is also noteworthy. Cuban officials have clarified that aid offered with “good intentions and for the purpose of genuine cooperation” is not rejected in principle.[iv] This statement indicates that Havana does not wish to completely shut its doors. However, the question of under what conditions and through which institutions aid will be distributed remains a key point of contention.
From a Latin American perspective, there is a possibility that the energy crisis in Cuba could have regional repercussions. A prolonged economic collapse and social unrest could trigger new waves of irregular migration from the Caribbean. In particular, the possibility of increased maritime migration toward U.S. shores plays a significant role in Washington’s security calculations. For this reason, it appears that the U.S. is developing an approach focused not on regime change, but on controlled pressure and limited stability.
A potential legal proceeding against Raúl Castro, however, could once again bring negotiations between the two countries to a standstill. Filing a lawsuit against one of the symbolic figures of the Cuban Revolution could be interpreted by the Havana government as a direct political attack. This situation could also disrupt the security and intelligence dialogue that has recently begun.
As a result, relations between the United States and Cuba have entered a new transitional phase. While the Washington administration is increasing economic pressure on one hand, it is attempting to exert influence over Havana through controlled dialogue and aid mechanisms on the other. Cuba, however, views the lifting of sanctions as a top priority amid the severe impacts of the energy crisis. Yet, a potential legal action against Raúl Castro stands out as a significant development that could lead to a renewed escalation of tensions between the two countries. In the coming period, the energy crisis, social protests, and the U.S.’s pressure policies are increasingly likely to create new geopolitical fractures in the Caribbean.
[i] Gribben, Paul, and Tom McArthur. “CIA Chief Visits Cuba as Energy Crisis Worsens”, BBC News, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cd7pyrj0vx7o, (Date of Access: 17.05.2026).
[ii] Ibid.
[iii] Ibid.
[iv] Ibid.
