Since the “Global Britain” report published in 2021, [i] Britain has been making intense efforts to increase its political, economic, and military influence in the Indo-Pacific. In this context, it is both increasing its military presence in the region and trying to expand its economic ties in the Indo-Pacific by signing free trade agreements. For example, the UK has decided to permanently deploy 2 naval ships to serve at the naval base in Singapore for 5 years. British navy ships increased their visits to the ports of the allied states in the region, including India, and accelerated their exercises. [ii]
In addition to military cooperation, the UK signed the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (CPTPP) in March this year after nearly two years of negotiations. Thus, England became the 12th country to join the free trade agreement. UK officials announced that they “signed the largest free trade agreement after Brexit”.[iii] Negotiations for the signing of a free trade agreement between the UK and India are continuing. [iv] This free trade agreement is expected to be a turning point in bilateral relations.
British Foreign Minister David Cameron met with Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar in London on November 13, 2023. [v] During this meeting, common global issues were discussed, including the alarming situation in Israel and Gaza and Russia’s war in Ukraine. The importance of the Indo-Pacific region in terms of global growth and prosperity was also discussed at the meeting. The parties agreed to increase cooperation to achieve the UK-India 2030 Roadmap target. Ministers also discussed advancing the free trade agreement and expanding partnerships in defence, science, and technology.
British Trade Minister Kemi Badenoch visited New Delhi in November to gain momentum for negotiations. The UK hopes to grow its market in India while increasing services and investment opportunities. India, on the other hand, wants to export more manufactured goods and services to the UK and provide additional work visas to its citizens. The UK is prepared to discuss business visas as part of the negotiations. However, he advocates treating temporary travel by businesspeople for certain purposes differently.
According to the Financial Times report, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, with whom he met as part of the G20 Summit, requested Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to take a more active stance on the Russia-Ukraine War. [vi] England’s request; India is actively trying to use its influence on Russia to stop the war in Ukraine. During the trip, Sunak made efforts to further increase global support for Ukraine. Despite pressure from Britain, it seems unlikely that India will take a tougher stance against Russia on the Ukrainian War. India chose to remain neutral throughout the conflict but continued to purchase discounted Russian oil and maintained military cooperation with Russia.
The main reason why India occasionally raises its voice to Moscow regarding Ukraine is to maintain its economic growth, ensure energy security and use the opportunity to develop its trade with Russia. It can be said that India, which thinks that Western sanctions resulting from the Ukraine War prevent this, has begun to question Putin’s decisions even though they continue to develop their relations with Russia at the state level. What bothers India is; It can be said that it is Putin’s insistence on not ending the war in Ukraine and continuing it. At this point, India, like the rest of the world, may have begun to differentiate between Russia and Moscow.
In fact, Western powers are increasing their pressure on India to persuade Putin to end the war. In particular, it can be predicted that after Putin’s partial mobilization decision, India increased its pressure on Moscow to end the war through diplomatic channels. Putin’s latest insistence on continuing the war in Ukraine may be effective in changing India’s perspective on the issue. In this sense, New Delhi may think that it shows enough favoritism to Putin and question the decisions taken by Moscow. According to this idea, cooperation between Russia and India reached its highest point, entered a period of stagnation after the Ukraine War, and most recently began to decline with Putin’s nuclear threats.
Russia continuing this war increases the West’s need for India. If India continues to establish friendly relations with the West, Russia’s “other” position will deepen, and Moscow will become isolated in the international arena.
As a result, India aims to become the central power in the Indo-Pacific by getting closer to the Russia-China axis on the one hand and cooperating with the US-Britain-West alliance on the other. In short, the most important axis that will change the balance in the international power struggle is the Russia-India alliance. Despite this, Moscow aims to disturb the US and UK axis by getting closer to India. India, on the other hand, always wants to have a trump card against the West by taking Russia on its side.
[1] “Global Britain in a Competitive Age: the Integrated Review of Security, Defence, Development and Foreign Policy”, UK Gov, https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/global-britain-in-a-competitive-age-the-integrated-review-of-security-defence-development-and-foreign-policy, (Date Accesion: 06.12.2023).
[2] “Royal Navy Warship HMS Spey Makes Inaugural Visit to India”, UK Gov, https://www.gov.uk/government/news/royal-navy-warship-hms-spey-makes-inaugural-visit-to-india, (Date Accesion: 06.12.2023).
[3] “İngiltere Trans-Pasifik Ticaret Bloğu CPTPP’ye Katıldı: Hükümet ‘Brexit Sonrası En Büyük Serbest Ticaret Anlaşması’ Diyor”, BBC, https://www.bbc.com/turkce/articles/c88g371xj5vo, (Date Accesion: 06.12.2023).
[4] “India, UK Seek to Wrap Up Trade Talks Before Busy Election Year”, Bloomberg, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-05/india-uk-seek-to-wrap-up-trade-talks-before-busy-election-year, (Date Accesion: 06.12.2023).
[5] “Foreign Secretary’s meeting with Indian External Affairs Minister, Dr S Jaishankar, November 2023”, UK Gov, https://www.gov.uk/government/news/foreign-secretarys-meeting-with-indian-external-affairs-minister-dr-s-jaishankar-november-2023, (Date Accesion: 06.12.2023).
[6] “UK to urge India to ‘call out’ Russia over Ukraine war”, Ft, https://www.ft.com/content/51c9c000-1034-40c3-899e-70db260c66d4, (Date Accesion: 06.12.2023).
