Located at the center of Eurasian geopolitics and occupying a pivotal position within Mackinder’s Heartland theory, Central Asia has consistently drawn the attention of global power centers owing to its strategic importance. Nevertheless, in the historical context, the region has predominantly been characterized by structural disputes, border conflicts, and persistent instability. The literature and narratives on the region have generally focused on ecological disasters such as the drying of the Aral Sea, as well as geopolitical tensions arising from claims over the Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers. After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, multilateral commissions and various agreements were established to address the challenges arising from geographical constraints. Despite these efforts, regional states were long regarded as passive actors, and at times as objects of influence competition among external powers. However, in contrast to this historical background, a new period has emerged. The Republic of Uzbekistan now stands out as a leading actor of regional solution mechanisms and integration processes.
In the Central Asian context, water is regarded as a core component of national sovereignty, food security, and economic sustainability, and water infrastructure inherited from the Soviet period prioritized agricultural production at the expense of ecological balance, creating decades of tension between upstream and downstream states. However, in the twenty-first century, escalating climate change, glacier melt, and increasing population pressure have made this long-standing source of tension a shared strategic concern that affects the entire region if left unaddressed. Uzbekistan has responded to this challenge with a pragmatic diplomatic approach, turning necessity into opportunity and positioning itself as a central actor in regional water management.
Tashkent’s current water diplomacy is built on modernizing post-Soviet structures and enhancing transparency. This framework rests on two main pillars: The first is the Interstate Commission for Water Coordination (ICWC), established in 1992, which brings together the relevant ministers and technical delegations from five Central Asian states. Within this commission, Uzbekistan plays a leading role in setting annual water usage limits based on scientific data and developing joint data-sharing systems. The second pillar is the cultivation of trust through concrete bilateral agreements. The clearest example of this is the 1996 treaty with Turkmenistan, which mandates an equal sharing of the Amu Darya River waters and continues to be strictly observed today. By removing the mistrust caused by water-sharing uncertainties, this initiative has turned potential conflict into a predictable environment for cooperation. This technical and rules-based approach helps build political trust between regional countries and supports the foundation of the broader cultural leadership strategy.
Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Central Asian states developed different identity policies and economic models, despite their shared historical and cultural roots. Uzbekistan’s current foreign policy shift reflects an effort to turn this cultural heritage into a formal cooperation framework, specifically through the Organization of Turkic States (OTS). Tashkent’s growing influence within the OTS is a natural result of its strategy to strengthen regional presence and diversify its partnerships. In this regard, the 2022 Samarkand Summit was a key turning point, as it enhanced the organization’s capacity and added strategic depth through the “New Era for Turkic Civilization” vision.
Uzbekistan’s role within the OTS is centered on a functional cooperation model designed to protect the region’s macroeconomic interests. Its institutional support for the Middle Corridor (Trans-Caspian International Transport Route) directly reflects Tashkent’s goal of integrating the region into global logistics networks while reducing unilateral dependencies. Tashkent positions the OTS as a platform for building joint capacity in technical fields such as logistics, energy security, and cyber defense. This approach aims to build a regional framework that can withstand external geopolitical pressures by promoting shared security interests and economic cooperation among member states. Ultimately, Uzbekistan’s identity-based regionalism, paired with realistic diplomacy, aims to create a more balanced space for maneuver in the face of global powers.
Central Asia’s geopolitical reality forces local countries to balance Russia’s security role, China’s immense economic power, and Western technology. Within this complex environment, Uzbekistan follows a multi-vector foreign policy to maintain its independence. The success of this approach depends on keeping the region stable. By using water and cultural diplomacy to stabilize its neighbors, Tashkent is better able to balance global powers.
The Western dimension of this policy is driven by deepening strategic ties with the European Union, and specifically France. The strategic partnership declaration signed during President Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s visit to Paris serves as a primary example of this political commitment. Additionally, Uzbekistan’s selection as the Country of Honor for the 2026 IFTM Top Resa trade fair highlights the tourism and cultural diplomacy side of this relationship. However, this policy is not about breaking ties with Russia. Instead, it aims to place this traditional security partnership on a more rational footing. The military-strategic cooperation plan with Moscow through 2030 is another dimension of this balancing policy. However, Tashkent demonstrates its commitment to independence by keeping its distance from organizations like the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and emphasizing neutrality in regional conflicts. This middle-power diplomacy allows Uzbekistan to manage its security concerns while creating new room for maneuver through its ties with the West, placing its claim to regional leadership on a solid foundation.
Uzbekistan is reshaping regional politics through a practical and proactive strategy. The trust built via technical water diplomacy is now turning into a broader regional partnership through institutional cooperation. This strong foundation allows Tashkent to maintain its independence even under pressure from major global powers.
Tashkent’s initiatives have the potential to turn concepts like the “Central Asian Community” or the “Turkic World” into a concrete political and social reality. By focusing on economic partnerships and shared security, Uzbekistan is moving beyond traditional self-interest to act as a leading actor of regional stability. Ultimately, Tashkent’s success is essential not only for the future of Central Asia but also for the peace and security of Eurasia during this period of rising geopolitical competition.
