Russia’s hybrid warfare strategy targeting Europe is becoming one of the most defining security challenges of our time. Transcending the boundaries of conventional warfare, this approach integrates military force with information operations, cyberattacks with economic pressure, and psychological influence with technological tools within a single strategic framework.
The fundamental features and objectives of Russian hybrid strategy include generating high political impact through low-cost tools, reducing the risk of direct military confrontation, complicating the attribution of responsibility, and intensifying mistrust and polarisation within target societies.
In recent years, energy pipelines, natural gas terminals, undersea communication cables, railways, and logistics hubs have become the most vulnerable components of European security. These developments demonstrate that energy security is now addressed not merely as an economic matter, but as a military one. Furthermore, cyber operations stand out as one of the most visible elements of Russia’s hybrid warfare strategy.
The Baltic states, comprising Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia, experience Russia’s military, political, and hybrid pressure tools most acutely due to their geographical location. Situated on NATO’s eastern flank, the region holds strategic significance not only locally, but for the entire European security architecture. Although these countries are members of both NATO and the European Union (EU), they occupy a distinct position in Russia’s foreign policy perception. The primary reasons for this include their proximity to Russia’s north-western border, their strategic location surrounding the Kaliningrad region, and their historical inclusion within the Russian sphere of influence. Russia’s main objective in its Baltic policy is not direct military conflict, but rather generating uncertainty, testing Western political resolve, and measuring NATO’s resilience.
For instance, Russia’s state news agency, RIA Novosti, recently published an opinion piece discussing a potential new Russian “special military operation” targeting Lithuania and raising the possibility of nuclear-tipped missile strikes; however, the article was taken down shortly after. The piece was published following a vote in the Lithuanian Parliament that advanced a proposal to remove the constitutional ban on weapons of mass destruction.[i]
Furthermore, another point worth highlighting is that Lithuanian Prime Minister Mindaugas Sinkevičius stated in an interview with the BBC that his country is preparing evacuation plans against Russia-sourced threats. However, he also affirmed that in the event of a potential attack, they “will not surrender”. Speaking on the Newsnight programme, Sinkevičius mentioned that Lithuanians feel “constantly threatened” because of Russia, citing drones entering the country’s airspace as one of the reasons for these concerns. The Prime Minister noted that should an attack against Lithuania occur, they “will respond and intervene”.[ii]
It is also worth mentioning that one of the most vital elements in Lithuania’s security perception is the Suwalki Gap. Owing to Russia’s military presence in Kaliningrad and Belarus, the Suwalki Gap is regarded as one of Europe’s most sensitive geopolitical flashpoints. Located between Poland and Lithuania, this narrow land corridor is the sole terrestrial link connecting the Baltic states to the rest of NATO. Consequently, the area holds critical importance in NATO’s defence planning strategy.
Another aspect that must be examined in this context is the demographic factor. Population structure, identity, language, culture, and citizenship rights play an increasingly important role in state security policies. Thus, the demographic factor remains, as ever, a cornerstone of geopolitics. Issues of identity, language, and culture are no longer merely matters of domestic policy; they have become integral to international competition.
The Baltic states serve as an instructive example for understanding the geopolitical dimensions of the demographic factor. Owing to historical processes, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia host diverse ethnic and linguistic communities. In particular, the status of the Russian-speaking population holds a significant place in regional security dynamics. In this context, according to Russian state media, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that Moscow is aware of allegations regarding the infringement of rights of Russian-speaking communities living in the Baltic states. Nevertheless, Putin remarked that Russia is not preparing any military operations against Europe. According to Putin, Moscow is closely monitoring the situation of the Russian-speaking population in the Baltic states and is formulating an approach regarding the stance to be adopted on this matter.[iii]
Accordingly, demographic issues have acquired a new dimension within the hybrid warfare environment. Certain states can exert political pressure, generate pretexts for intervention, and attempt to establish spheres of influence through local communities by raising the rights of populations residing in other countries. Russian foreign policy possesses substantial experience in this realm. Although this policy was previously framed around the ideologies of Orthodoxy or Pan-Slavism, the current ineffectiveness and obsolescence of these two approaches have led to a narrower focus on the “Russian World” concept.
The core challenge facing Europe is the persistence and ambiguity of hybrid attacks. This state of affairs renders not only military deterrence, but also the resilience of state institutions, societal cohesion, and the protection of critical infrastructure indispensable components of national security. Hybrid warfare is expected to continue shaping the European security architecture in the period ahead.
[i] “RIA Novosti Deletes Column Envisaging ‘Short’ War With Lithuania and Nuclear Strike”, EU Today, https://eutoday.net/ria-novosti-lithuania-nuclear-war-column/, (Date Accessed: 28.09.2026).
[ii] Tabby Wilson, “Lithuania ready to ‘fight back’ but has evacuation plans in face of Russia threats, PM tells BBC”, BBC News, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ck5yw8npxzrlo, (Date Accessed: 28.09.2026).
[iii] Kateryna Serohina, “Putin accuses Baltics of violating Russian speakers’ rights, vows to spare EU”, RBC-Ukraine, https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/putin-accuses-baltics-of-violating-russian-1790374385.html, (Date Accessed: 28.09.2026).
