According to a claim frequently made after Russia launched an attack on Ukraine on February 24, 2022, Beijing started to follow Moscow’s path and switched to a more aggressive policy in its close vicinity.[1] In addition, China, which is influenced by the theses used by Moscow against the West and claims that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is spreading towards Asia-Pacific in this context[2], follows Russia’s path in terms of both discourse and action. The latest example of this emerged in June 2022 when Chinese President Xi Jinping signed a new directive governing “non-combat” military operations.[3] This decision aroused the concern that, just as Russia did to Ukraine, China might conduct an intervention against Taiwan in the future under the name of “special military operation”. The allegations that China has started to make military-security moves in its close vicinity have started to be expressed much more strongly after the military coup in Myanmar in February 2021.[4]
Again, the developments in the Afghanistan-Pakistan-Tajikistan-Iran axis in 2021 were interpreted as China trying to establish a geopolitical line in its immediate surroundings. In this context, the Dushanbe administration’s efforts to coordinate with Tehran, Islamabad, Kabul and Beijing in the field of security were interpreted as the formation of a de facto military-security cooperation axis between these five actors. These moves, which started from South Asia, gained a new dimension in May 2022, when Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi went on a tour of the Pacific Islands. Then, Wang Yi attended the Foreign Ministers’ Meeting in June of the same year, which included five Central Asian states, and in the first week of July, he went on a tour of Southeast Asian countries including Myanmar, Thailand, Philippines, Malaysia and Indonesia. All these expansions indicate that China is moving towards a change in the doctrine of the near environment.
The Near Environment Doctrine refers to the doctrine that Russia used to re-establish effectiveness in the post-Cold War era. Similarly, Beijing has tried to develop its foreign policy through the slogan of “The Great Re-Awakening of the Chinese Nation” after the 1990s. In the period of Xi Jinping, who came to power in 2013, with the announcement of the Belt-Road Project, the “Chinese Dream” discourse began to be used in foreign policy. In order to make this economic rise sustainable, China aimed to support its economic power with political and military moves.
China, which has been trying to modernize its army and investing in naval power for the last 50 years, may have started to change this strategy after the Russia-Ukraine War and focused on taking Moscow as an example in terms of its war capabilities (hybrid warfare). To put it more clearly, although the Beijing administration is implementing a foreign policy line in line with the principle of not interfering in the internal affairs of other countries and respecting their sovereignty, Russia’s recent moves in Ukraine may have changed China’s ideas. China closely follows Russia’s actions in terms of the form and method of the war, the tactics used, and post-war perception management and disinformation. Therefore, Beijing may take action to apply the aforementioned methods in its own close circle in the coming periods.
Due to the Ukraine War, now the former Soviet geography has begun to worry more about Russia’s land power. But the countries of the region do not have such great fears against China. In fact, China can resort to a serious policy of military engagement towards its western and southern neighbors, Tajikistan, Afghanistan and Pakistan, if it wishes. Indeed, it has such a capacity. However, it does not prefer this in the current conjuncture. But Russia’s move to Ukraine may have encouraged China in this regard. However, if Beijing wants to show its power to the world, it can make military-security breakthroughs in its close vicinity. The latest military decree signed by Cinping is also a harbinger that China will act more aggressively towards its neighbors in the region. Because this “special military operation” can be carried out not only in Taiwan but also on other neighboring countries.
In short, the most important strategy lesson China has learned from Russia is the military-security moves in its close vicinity and the hybrid warfare method it uses in this sense. However, the probability of China making a mistake is increasing day by day. Because the Beijing administration is starting to move away from traditional foreign policy principles.
In fact, the principle of loyalty to the territorial integrity and sovereignty of other countries is the principle that China attaches the most importance to. However, it is seen that the Beijing administration has moved away from this line in recent years. To put it simply, it is claimed that clauses regarding the deployment of Chinese security forces to these countries have been added to the agreements it has made with Iran, Pakistan and the Solomon Islands. Ensuring the safety of China’s economic projects and Chinese workers is cited as the reason. In addition to the troop deployment strategy, the use of a special military operation method is also being considered. It can be foreseen that the application areas may be Tajikistan, Afghanistan, Kashmir and India (Aranucal Pradesh) as well as Taiwan.
In this context, Beijing recently requested to establish a security company in Pakistan in order to protect its economic investments and citizens working in the projects in question, but Islamabad administration turned down the request.[5] It is claimed that China has made similar demands to countries such as Iran, the Solomon Islands, Afghanistan under Taliban rule[6] and Myanmar[7]. To put it more clearly, China can try to gain a military presence in the world by using the Belt-Road Project. In this context, it is estimated that China may establish military bases in countries such as Cambodia, Kenya, Tanzania, Pakistan, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Kiribati, Solomon Islands and Vanuatu in the medium and long term.[8] China cites the expansion of Western powers, and especially NATO, towards Asia as the reason for this expansion.
The fact that NATO labels the rise of China as a threat in its new strategic concept and in this sense, it becomes more interested in the problems in the Asia-Pacific may also lead Beijing to adopt a more aggressive policy in its close environment. In this context, it is stated that among the Central Asian countries, especially Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, as well as Afghanistan, Kashmir, Myanmar and the Pacific islands may be Beijing’s new targets.
As it is known, in parallel with the eastward expansion of NATO, Russia has become even more aggressive. Today, a similar scenario may apply to China in the Asia-Pacific. The claim that the Beijing administration may launch a “special military operation” against Taiwan, based on the example of Ukraine, has been intensely brought up by international media organizations. Moreover, it is also pointed out that after such an operation, China may take action to take similar military-security measures over Afghanistan, Tajikistan, Myanmar and India. In short, it is thought that China’s principles of adherence to the territorial integrity and sovereignty of states in foreign policy will be replaced by a more pro-active military-security strategy in its immediate vicinity.
[1] “China Is Going to Be More Aggressive After Newly Signed Military Order: Analyst”, The Epoch Times, https://www.theepochtimes.com/china-is-going-to-be-more-aggressive-after-newly-signed-order-analyst_4539866.html, (Date of Accession: 14.07.2022).
[2] “China Says NATO Has ‘Messed up Europe’ and Warns over Role in Asia-Pacific”, The Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/29/china-says-nato-is-messing-up-europe-and-warns-over-role-in-asia-pacific, (Date of Accession: 14.07.2022).
[3] “Chinese Leader Xi Jinping Signs New Rules Governing ‘Non-War’ Military Operations”, RFA, https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/military-rules-06132022153121.html, (Date of Accession: 14.07.2022).
[4] “Uzmanlara göre ABD-Çin Rekabeti Myanmar’daki Darbeyi Tetikledi”, AA, https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/dunya/uzmanlara-gore-abd-cin-rekabeti-myanmardaki-darbeyi-tetikledi-/2130854, (Date of Accession: 14.07.2022).
[5] “China Disappoints with Pakistan’s Refusal For Opening Security Company in Country”, The Print, https://theprint.in/world/china-disappoints-with-pakistans-refusal-for-opening-security-company-in-country/1023445/, (Date of Accession: 14.07.2022).
[6] “Afghanistan: The Next Frontier for China’s Private-Security Companies?”, IISS, https://www.iiss.org/blogs/analysis/2021/10/afghanistan-the-next-frontier-for-chinas-private-security-companies, (Date of Accession: 14.07.2022).
[7] “India Keeps Close Watch as Wang Yi visits Myanmar”, Economic Times, https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/india-keeps-close-watch-as-wang-yi-visits-myanmar/articleshow/92624044.cms, (Date of Accession: 14.07.2022).
[8] “China Wants to Increase Its Military Presence Abroad”, Economist, https://www.economist.com/china/2022/05/05/china-wants-to-increase-its-military-presence-abroad, (Date of Accession: 14.07.2022).
