The most important effect of the Russia-Ukraine War, which started on February 24, 2022, on global trade was undoubtedly the blockage of the Northern Corridor. In this context, it is possible to state that the importance of the Middle Corridor, which connects the East and the West via the China-Central Asia-Caspian Sea-Caucasus-Balkans-Europe route, has increased. Because the Middle Corridor is the shortest, least costly and most stable route between China and Europe. Undoubtedly, this situation increases the geopolitical and geoeconomic importance of the states bordering the Caspian Sea. For this reason, it is seen that the states of the region focus on Caspian-centered projects and therefore try to consolidate their own positions.
It can be stated that Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan have a strong will to deepen their Caspian-centered cooperation. In this sense, it can be said that the first concrete output of the cooperation between the parties is the meeting of KazMunayGas Chairman of the Board of Kazakhstan Magzum Mirzagaliyev and SOCAR Chairman Rovshan Najaf in Baku on 18 August 2022 and discussing the Caspian-based infrastructure projects.[1] At the same time, the meeting between Mirzagaliyev and Najaf is not only in the logistics dimension of the Middle Corridor; It means that it comes to the forefront in terms of energy supply and security.
In the following process, the search for cooperation between the parties continued at an accelerated pace and on August 24, 2022, the visit of the President of Kazakhstan, Mr. Kasım-Cömert Tokayev, to meet with the President of Azerbaijan, Mr. Ilham Aliyev, took place in Baku.[2] This has clearly demonstrated the importance that the two countries attach to the Middle Corridor in terms of energy exports, attracting foreign direct investment, and regional-interregional integration processes.
As of January 2023, it is possible to state that the search for Caspian-based cooperation has gained momentum and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has come to the fore in these searches. As a matter of fact, the visits of both Mr. Aliyev and Mr. Tokayev to the UAE demonstrate this situation.
In this context, the first visit of Mr. Aliyev to Abu Dhabi took place on January 15, 2023. The President of Azerbaijan, who participated in the “Sustainable Development Week” event during the visit, said the following during the meeting:[3]
“the UAE transformed into world’s one of the most stable, developed and successful countries. And we, your brothers in Azerbaijan, are really proud of what you are doing.”
In addition, Mr. Aliyev also met with UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan. At the meeting between the two leaders, cooperation opportunities between the parties were discussed and Mr. Aliyev invited his UAE counterpart to Baku.[4] Considering that the UAE is currently cooperating with Azerbaijan in investment projects worth hundreds of millions of dollars, most notably the wind energy project of Masdar, it can be said that energy was the highlight of Mr. Aliyev’s visit. Although more references are made to renewable energy projects, it is not possible to argue that the option of providing solids for Caspian-based projects has been overlooked. Because the visitor traffic also indicates this.
As a matter of fact, after the visit of Mr. Aliyev, the UAE hosted the President of Kazakhstan, Mr. Tokayev. During the visit covering 16-19 January 2023, Mr. Tokayev made the following statement:[5]
“The Emirates is our leading and reliable strategic partner in the Middle East and Arab world. Your country has supported Kazakhstan since the first days of independence. Kazakh people will never forget this. The United Arab Emirates has significantly contributed to our capital’s development and improvement. This is evidence of true friendship.”
In addition, Mr. Tokayev stated that the UAE invested approximately 3 billion dollars in Kazakhstan and that Kazakhstan also invested over 1 billion dollars in the UAE, and that the trade volume between the two countries exceeded 600 million dollars in 2022.[6]
As might be expected, the parties have developed a constructive and pragmatic form of cooperation that prioritizes mutual interests. Considering that Mr. Tokayev held meetings with important names from the business world during his visit,[7] it can be argued that Astana’s expectation is to attract foreign direct investment. Of course, one of these investment areas is Caspian-based projects.
At this point, it should be stated that; The UAE is an actor that cares about developing pragmatic relations with the Central Asian and Caucasian states. Of course, the energy factor plays a decisive role in these relations. Because, like Astana and Baku, Abu Dhabi expects UAE companies to take part in Caspian-based projects.
As a matter of fact, despite the fact that both Mr. Tokayev and Mr. Aliyev met with Nahyan on other issues that focused on bilateral relations, the successive visits of the leaders of the two states bordering the Caspian Sea to Abu Dhabi, in essence, focused on the Middle Corridor and This indicates that there is a search for cooperation, especially the energy dimension of which comes to the fore.
As a result, the UAE has been operating in the region with energy and economy-based collaborations since the past. It is understood that the most recent title of these cooperations, which are based on mutual respect and in which all parties have gained, are the projects related to the Caspian Sea. The visits of both Mr. Aliyev and Mr. Tokayev can be interpreted as the harbinger of serious developments in the Middle Corridor centered energy projects between the three actors.
[1] “KazMunayGas Chairman Meets with Azerbaijan’s SOCAR President, Visits Batumi Oil Terminal”, Astana Times, https://astanatimes.com/2022/08/kazmunaygas-chairman-meets-with-azerbaijans-socar-president-visits-batumi-oil-terminal/, (Date of Accession: 18.01.2023).
[2] ““Состоялась встреча Ильхама Алиева и Касым-Жомарта Токаева один на один”, Vesti, https://vesti.az/politika/sostoyalas-vstreca-ilxama-alieva-i-kasym-zomarta-tokaeva-odin-na-odin-470437, (Date of Accession: 18.01.2023).
[3] “President Ilham Aliyev: United Arab Emirates Transformed into World’s One of most Stable, Developed and Successful Countries”, APA, https://apa.az/en/official-news/president-ilham-aliyev-united-arab-emirates-transformed-into-worlds-one-of-most-stable-developed-and-successful-countries-393861, (Date of Accession: 18.01.2023).
[4] “Aliyev Went to Visit a Friend… to Create “Sustainable Development””, Aze.Media, https://aze.media/aliyev-went-to-visit-a-friend-to-create-sustainable-development/, (Date of Accession: 18.01.2023).
[5] “President Tokayev’s Visit to UAE: Focus on Increased Business and Investment Ties”, KazInform, https://www.inform.kz/en/president-tokayev-s-visit-to-uae-focus-on-increased-business-and-investment-ties_a4024843, (Date of Accession: 18.01.2023).
[6] Ibid.
[7] “Kazakh President Arrives in UAE for Official Visit”, Astana Times, https://astanatimes.com/2023/01/kazakh-president-arrives-in-uae-for-official-visit/, (Date of Accession: 18.01.2023).
