On August 6, 2024, Ukraine launched a major military operation in Russia’s Kursk region, capturing approximately 100 settlements across an area of around 500 square miles and catching Russia off guard.[i] The fact that secrecy was at the forefront during the military operation caused the Russian soldiers to surrender.[ii]
It has been claimed that Russia has formed new attack forces in the Kursk region.[iii] Additionally, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported that Russia has made “tactical advancements” in the southeast of the city.[iv] However, the Kremlin has stated that Russian forces were not engaged in any preparations. This suggests that Russia does not view the Kursk region as an active conflict zone.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has denied claims that the Kursk attack was aimed at “strengthening negotiation positions,” emphasizing that they are trying to prevent Russian Army attacks and are pursuing a peaceful policy through diplomacy.[v]
The Kursk attack, which Ukraine described as a retaliatory operation, has been perceived as a surprise move by the global public. In response to this surprise attack, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated that it represents Ukraine’s right to self-defense.[vi] Underlining that Ukraine used its right of self-defense in line with international law (United Nations Article 51), [vii] Stoltenberg emphasized the importance of Europe’s military aid to Ukraine in the region.[viii]
The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesperson, in a statement, clarified that the main objective of the operation in the Kursk region was to cause disruptions along the Russia-Ukraine border and extend the duration of the conflict. In response, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova stated that the attacks on the Kursk region have eliminated the possibility of negotiations with Ukraine.[ix] In addition to this situation, Zaharova’s description of the attacks as “terrorist activities” shows that the search for a diplomatic solution has become difficult.[x]
Making a new statement at the NATO-Ukraine Council meeting, Stoltenberg reiterated NATO’s support for Kiev, saying, “Ukraine saves countless lives by neutralizing Russian missiles.”.[xi]
With the Kursk attack, Kyiv has conducted its most significant cross-border military operation since 2022. While Moscow had been gradually advancing, this attack surprised both the Kremlin and the Russian Army. The declaration of a state of emergency in the region reflects the seriousness of the situation. Despite the mobilization of reserve troops and evacuation orders, Russia’s inability to halt Ukraine’s advance in the area can be interpreted as facing a major challenge.[xii]
Since February 2022, the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine War, both countries have been constantly innovating in terms of war tactics. It is noteworthy that Ukraine, which has increased its intensity especially in regions close to the Russian borders, uses weapons from Western countries in the region.[xiii] If Ukraine actively uses Western-made weapons, it is likely to increase its attacks on Russian territory.
Ukraine’s requests to the U.S. for permission to use long-range weapons against Russia are ongoing.[xiv] According to military experts, while the type of weapons may not have a decisive impact on the war, strategic moves are considered to be the primary focus.[xv]
In addition to this situation, the capacity of Ukrainian forces to maintain control on the Kursk front depends on how many soldiers Russia will keep in the region. Because with the attack in the Kursk region, Ukraine creates a buffer zone against Russian attacks.[xvi] Thus, Russia’s military presence and strategies in the region will continue to be a determining factor on Ukraine’s progress. It can be said that this situation stands out as an important factor that will change the course of the Ukraine-Russia War.
Another important issue is the rights of Kursk residents who were forced to leave the area due to Ukraine’s attack. Humanitarian aid for those affected by the attacks is ongoing.[xvii] However, Ukrainian officials accuse Russia of not providing humanitarian corridors for civilians in the Kursk region.[xviii] Ukraine, stating that Russia is absent from the region, has announced that it has established a humanitarian aid and evacuation corridor for Russian citizens in Kursk.[xix] Ukraine’s military operation in the Kursk region represents a significant turning point both in terms of military strategy and international politics. The surprise nature of this move and its impact on the international community demonstrate Ukraine’s military strength and determination. On the other hand, Russia’s preparations for counterattacks and diplomatic responses suggest that the conflict may escalate. With support from Western countries, Ukraine’s potential increase in cross-border operations could shift the balance of power in the region. In summary, the Kursk attack creates a complex crisis environment with both military and humanitarian dimensions.
[i] Bredan Cole, “Zelensky’s Kursk ncursion Could Be Playing into Putin’s Hands”, Newsweek,https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ukraine-putin-zelensky-kursk-1946142, (Access Date:02.09.2024).
[ii] Siobhan O’Grady, Tetiana Burianova ve Serhiy Morgunov, “Ukraine’s Gamble İn Russia Has Yet To Slow Moscow’s Eastern Assault”, The Washington Post,https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/08/31/ukraine-russia-kursk-pokrovsk-sysrky/, (Access Date: 02.09.2024).
[iii] Bredan Cole, “Zelensky’s Kursk Incursion…”, a.g.m.
[iv] Ibid.
[v] “Ukrayna’nın Kursk saldırısı ateşkes görüşmelerini nasıl etkiler?”, Anadolu Ajansı,https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/analiz/ukraynanin-kursk-saldirisi-ateskes-gorusmelerini-nasil-etkiler/3314859, (Access Date: 02.09.2024).
[vi] “NATO Terms Ukraine’s Surprise Kursk Offensive a Legitimate Act”, We News,https://wenewsenglish.pk/nato-terms-ukraines-surprise-kursk-offensive-a-legitimate-act/, (Access Date: 02.09.2024).
[vii] Article 51: Nothing in this Agreement shall impair the right of individual or collective self-defense of a member of the United Nations if that member is the victim of an armed attack, until the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to maintain international peace and security. Members shall immediately inform the Security Council of the measures they take in exercising this right of legitimate defense. The Security Council may always maintain the authority and duty to act in the manner it deems necessary for the maintenance or restoration of international peace and security according to this Agreement.
https://inhak.adalet.gov.tr/Resimler/SayfaDokuman/2212020141836bm_01.pdf, (Access Date: 03.09.2024).
[viii] Ibid.
[ix] “Rusya: Ukrayna’nın Kursk’a Saldırısı, Müzakere Olasılığını Ortadan Kaldırdı”, Anadolu Ajansı, https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/dunya/rusya-ukraynanin-kurska-saldirisi-muzakere-olasiligini-ortadan-kaldirdi/3309766, (Access Date: 02.09.2024).
[x] “Ukraine’s Incursion into Russia’s Kursk Region is Legitimate, Says Head Of Nato”, Forces News,https://www.forcesnews.com/ukraine/ukraines-incursion-russias-kursk-region-legitimate-says-head-nato, (Access Date: 02.09.2024).
[xi] Ibid.
[xii] “Ukrayna’nın Kursk Operasyonu ve Savaşın Yeni Evresi”, Anadolu Ajansı,https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/analiz/ukraynanin-kursk-operasyonu-ve-savasin-yeni-evresi/3305494, (Access Date: 02.09.2024).
[xiii] “Ukrayna’nın Kursk saldırısı…”, a.g.m.
[xiv] “Brendan Cole, “NATO Chief Backs Ukraine’s Invasion Of Russia”, Newsweek,https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ukraine-nato-stoltenberg-1947010, (Access Date: 02.09.2024).
[xv] Ibid.
[xvi] Ibid.
[xvii] Usman, Khurram, A shift in Ukraine’s war strategy, or an attempt to stymie “Russian military steamroller”, 2024, s. 3.
[xviii] “Russia Has Not Provided A Humanitarian Corridor From Kursk, Says Ukrainian Official”, The Kyiv Independent,https://kyivindependent.com/russia-has-not-provided-a-humanitarian-corridor-from-kursk-says-ukrainian-official/, (Access Date: 03.09.2024).
[xix] Ibid.
