Academicians have characterized the struggle between the United States and the Soviet Union as the Cold War since the mid-20th century and called the post-Cold War period a unipolar world order which is centred by the USA. This system, which have begun in the 1990s, has weakened over time and gradually moved into a stage of evolving into a multi-polar structure, especially with the rise of China.
The rise of China and its parallel actions against the Atlantic system have increasingly endamaged relations between the United States and China. The Pacific Ocean is the most significant region reflected in this struggle between the two countries. While Beijing has been steadily increasing its power in economic terms with the Belt and Road Initiative since 2013 when Xi Jinping became the President of China, China has also simultaneously improved its military capabilities through the modernization of the Chinese navy and new warships. The increasing strength of Beijing: created new perceptions of security in the South China Sea, Taiwan, the Pacific Ocean and the island states in the region.
Along with its defence capabilities[1] which acting as a preventative mechanism against attacks from the land, sea, air and space; with its increasing naval power, Beijing has gained the ability to defend against attacks or military operations that may arise from many of the US military bases in the Pacific, including Guam, which is known as the “the tip of the spear”
In spite of the fact of its considerable capacity for defence, China is weakening at the rate of where it diverges from its coastline and where the intercepted land missiles come out of range. At this point, we are facing the influences and changes power of geography on the matter of strategies. The Pacific Ocean; is the world’s largest geographical area which is equal to the total size of the Indian, Atlantic and Arctic Oceans. This greatness of its size led to its being called the tyranny/challenge of distance. In these waters, the navies, which lacks replenishment stops and manoeuvrability, can move like birds without wings. Decision-makers in Beijing are also aware of this situation. Based upon this reality, in contrast to Beijing’s recent requests for maritime jurisdictions in the South China Sea, which is situated near small island states situated in the Pacific Ocean, its economic and diplomatic approach stems from the nature of geography-distance.
Island-states in the Pacific, which is consisted of 14 countries, emerging as an increasingly crucial sphere in the China-US competition. Within this framework, China, which has the desire of increasing its power on the island-states, has organised its first online meeting in with its diplomatic partners at the foreign ministerial level on October 21, 2021.[2] The joint declaration announced at the end of the meeting highlighted the strategic partnership with mutual respect and common development. Over the years, China has improved its diplomatic relations with the countries of the region and economic investments in the region have been welcomed in the Pacific countries.
There has also been significant momentum in trade and investment areas between China and the Pacific island countries. In 2020, trade volume among the islands countries in the Pacific and China 9 billion dollars, an increase of 1.3 per cent compared to the previous year. By the end of 2020, China had signed engineering contracts worth $18.4 billion with these states, and completed $12.7 billion of said contracts.[3] In addition, according to data released by the Guardian, China has imported more than half of the total seafood and minerals exported by the region in 2019. [4] The increase in trade figures even realized during the period when the impact of the Covid-19 epidemic was felt, has confirmed that China interpreted the region as a strategic area.
Chinese investments directed to the region; trade partnership and its soft-power diplomacy have also changed the status quo in the Pacific countries as in many parts of the world. In 2019, China’s actions proved positive for itself as Kiribati and Solomon Islands tore off their ties with Taiwan to establish diplomatic relations with Beijing, and interiorized a “One-China policy.” In this regard, while 10 of the 14 island countries recognize China; only Marshall, Palau, Nauru and Tuvalu Islands recognize Taiwan. However, recent developments in Solomon Island also indicate that the balance of power has changed. Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare, who became the focus of criticism for breaking diplomatic relations with Taiwan in 2019, has faced protests in November 2021. The protests, which started with economic reasons, spread to many parts of the island. The Solomon Island Government, which requested security assistance from Australia, Papua New Guinea, New Zealand and Fiji to suppress the protests, also requested assistance from China, and this offer was positively received by the Beijing administration.[5] This assistance call has demonstrated the growing influence of China.
One of the reasons of regional countries lean toward China and become more dependent on it is loans provided by Beijing and their repayments. Chinese credit accounts for more than 60% of Tonga’s total external debt burden and nearly half of Vanuatu’s external debt. Papua New Guinea is the country most indebted to China with $590 million, representing nearly a quarter of its total foreign debt. [6] Samoa Island also is in danger of debt to China worth $386.5 million, or 40 percent of the debt due to the islands.
Pacific islands territory; stands out as an area of great power competition, with the width of its exclusive economic zone, its location at the centre of significant sea routes, and the presence of telecommunication cables passing under the sea. Testing the current balance of power under the influence of the USA-Japan-Australia with the moves of China was seen as a challenge by the countries in question, which advocated the Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy. In particular, White House Indo-Pacific Coordinator Kurt Campbell’s assertion that China is seeking a military base in the aforementioned region is considered as a national security threat by the United States and its allies. [7]
In the light of these developments, it would not be wrong to say that the Sino-West rivalry in the regional island countries in the region will increase. Considering that the USA and its allies will respond to the increasing Chinese influence in the region, it can be argued that the traditional power structure will experience a break and domestic and foreign interventions will increase. The main goal for both the US and China is to gain allies in their ranks in increasingly polarized international politics. Knowing that the island countries, which have a significant geopolitical influence in the centre of the Pacific Ocean, will provide a serious advantage to the alliance they will join, the USA and China will gradually increase their engagement in the region.
[1] David C. Gompert, “Sea Power and American Interests in the Western Pacific”, Rand Corporation, s. 8.
[2] “Joint Statement of China-Pacific Island Countries Foreign Ministers’ Meeting”, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the People’s Republic of China, https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/wjdt_665385/2649_665393/202110/t20211021_9604831.html, (Date of Accession: 09.02.2022).
[3] Wang Yi, “China Should Step up Support for Samoa, Other Pacific Island Nations”, Global Times, https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202112/1242926.shtml#:~:text=At%20the%20end%20of%202020,slander%20by%20some%20Western%20countries., (Date of Accession: 09.02.2022).
[4] Josh Nicholas, “The $3bn Bargain: How China Dominates Pacific Mining, Logging and Fishing”, The Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/31/the-3bn-bargain-how-china-dominates-pacific-mining-logging-and-fishing, (Date of Accession: 09.02.2022).
[5] “Solomon Islands Accepts Chinese Offer for Riot Police Assistance”, Nation World News, https://nationworldnews.com/solomon-islands-accepts-chinese-offer-for-riot-police-assistance/, (Date of Accession: 09.02.2022).
[6] Charlotte Greenfield-Jonathan Barrett, “Payment Due: Pacific Islands in the Red as Debts to China Mount”, Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-pacific-debt-china-insight-idUSKBN1KK2J4, (Date of Accession: 09.02.2022).
[7] Alexander B. Gray, “The Pacific Shouldn’t Be a ‘Strategic Surprise’”, Foreign Policy, https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/01/25/us-china-indo-pacific-military-strategy/, (Date of Accession: 09.02.2022).
